Favorite Betfair Trading – My Diary & Methods

Betfair Trading

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Welcome to my site where I explain my approach to trading the Betfair markets, why I do it, how I do it, and how you can too using some of the methods I have picked up and devised over the many years. Betfair trading is tax-free, it allows traders to work from the comfort of their own home with no travel costs and very few setup costs. On top of that, if you’re a sports fan, it’s an extremely enjoyable way to earn a living!

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** My ‘Lay The Draw’ eBook is finally published! **

As many of my readers know, I have been working on writing a detailed eBook to publish my entire method for analysing and implementing my football trades.

This is something I have been asked to do by literally hundreds of people over the years but I just never found the time until now. The footie break this summer especially with the Euros, gave me a nice relaxed period to finally put pen to paper and document each and every step, every click, every glance I make when choosing my daily Betfair trades.

ebooksmallHaving been doing this for so many years, it took a lot of time and effort to actually document everything I do because so much of it is done on auto-pilot. But finally it’s done, and after asking a few people to have a look at it and give me their thoughts, the views are very positive so I hope this will provide many readers with an extremely useful insight into this simple strategy for trading full time on Betfair. Click here to read more.

I am repeatedly being asked to publish more of my Befair trading strategies but this takes time to document fully, I am working on it. I have recently updated my page about horse racing trading where I outline my preferred methods, if that’s more your thing.

Update

Thanks to James Goteborg was an easy winner although smaller profit than usual due to limited odds movement which seems quite common in Swedish games.

Telephone calls are a pain in the ar5e! I waited on the Norrkoping game, it went 2-0 and I was just entering my order to lay the winning team at 1.13 as an exit to my LTD trade. This exit leaves a lot more green if the other team comes back which I was obviously expecting. Just as I hit submit, the dreaded “SUSPENDED” message came up and I was a few seconds too damn late! That could have been a very nice exit as it would have allowed a second green up after that goal, or a very very nice profit if I left it to a bet for the away team not to win the game which I occasionally do on games where that outcome is likely. I have run out of cats to kick, so need to find the kids….

angry

But of course there is no room for emotion in trading is there? 😀

Monday 26th additional trade

Thanks to a reader (James) I missed another one which he spotted… IFK Goteborg v Ostersunds. Here are the stats.

If I was picking faults with it I can only find two small ones, firstly the 3-0 away win on Ostersunds form card, that was a fairly respectable team they beat strongly at home without conceding, but if they did that today it would still result in a winning trade so it’s a small negative. Also the tendency of the home team to score many of their goals late, that’s often a strong negative for me as it’s obviously fairly harmful to a LTD trade so I would often avoid or take the trade much later on once the odds are below 3 (if poss) so my stop loss can be moved down to 1.5 for the same % risk on the trade as if trading from 4 down to 2. However given the seemingly very cheap price of this trade to LTD (3.9) I would be tempted to take this one from the off I think.

Thanks again James 🙂

Monday 26 September

Slightly interesting day today, will get to that in a sec

First things first, one LTD trade.

Norrkoping v Djurgardens 6pm – Stats here – This looks a good trade. Home form is nothing short of awesome when it comes to scoring goals. Away team’s form is pretty dire. Priced in mid 4s, which I think is good value. if this was a Spanish game with similar stats it would be priced closer to 5.5 – 6 !

But what on earth is going on with this Romanian game? ……

romanian football statsWhat I can’t understand is the price on Betfair. Home team are 1.58 odds on favourites, the draw is over 4. this is more like a back the draw than a lay the draw, or maybe a lay the home team trade or similar. Perhaps one good way to trade it would be to wait and see, hopefully the home team will score first, the odds on the draw (based on SPs) will go to silly heights at which point I would either back the draw or lay the home team then for a tiny liability. As usual its more than possible the home team could win the game 5-0, but the stats suggest a very different story, and the value is in the stats, not in guessing or looking into a crystal football! The two teams score virtually the same average goals per game, but the home team concedes more and has had no clean sheets at all. Just an interesting one, maybe one to watch for the beginners and look for a low liability laying opportunity somewhere for some juicy green.

Second update

Well that was a very odd day!

1-0 to Wolves and I tried trading out once it got back into the high threes. Market permanently suspended which usually means Betfair have lost their feed to the game. I contacted them and they confirmed this. While talking it went to 2-0, and thankfully I fired up my Gruss trading software and the Betfair API (data connection) seemed much more stable than the web browser, so I got out for a decent green.

Which reminds me…… every trader should have a BetDaq account and a few bookies accounts for these rare but dangerous situations where you can’t trade out. Betfair are notoriously awful to deal with, unhelpful, and don’t give a damn how much money you lose even if it’s a problem in their computers/networks (it’s all in the small print of course) so you need protection not just from internet problems but also from trading platform problems.

Update

Well a nice win eventually, Sandhausen were clearly slamming everything into defence to try to scratch out a 0-0 draw but when the favourite finally scored it was gloves off time. I laid under 2.5 goals @ 1.1 about 10 minutes before the first goal. That was a partial hedge, well more a trade in its own right but one which complimented and protected my LTD trade at least partially. So I left the lay on unders and traded out of the LTD trade at 1-0, then 2-0 came and I then removed my liability on the lay unders trade. At 90 mins the odds on under2.5 dropped to 1.01, and I was sure another goal was coming so I laid under 2.5 again at 1.01 for £100, goal. I started to smile then realised my bet wasn’t matched, DOH! That could have been a nice £100 extra but it wasn’t to be, maybe I was being a bit greedy! Oh well.

Newcastle is a nicer price now so I have laid the draw at 4.3 which I think is a nice price for this game.

Saturday 17 September

Big shortlist today but I am still approaching the coupon with a lot of caution. Munchen Gladbach, Everton, there are many similar picks which I would be interested in later in the season but I am writing these off for now, and I may trade half stakes for another week or two, maybe even a month, however long it takes to get a decent amount of home and away form respectively for these games which hit the shortlist.

Newcastle v Wolves – This is one of those which looks too good (only just) to ignore, but the recent away win of Wolves (3-1) against a very respectable team is a slight concern. It does look like a 2 or 3 goal win for Newcastle though, unless that odd result wasn’t an odd result after all. So it’s a half stakes LTD for me here.

Braunschweig v Sandhausen – OK I am a bit stumped here. The stats and recent game form of this match look excellent for a lay the draw trade, yet the odds look WAY out of whack. After looking through the stats I would have expected this to be priced nearer to 5, but it isn’t even near 4, it’s currently around 3.7. I have looked for team info in case something major has hit the news but being Germany League 2 there isn’t much news around, at least not that I can understand! So, I am going to go with the stats here and given the cheap price I am giving it a full stake LTD. Maybe the game will tell me why it’s priced so low, it could just be lack of money in the market as it is very low at the moment. I may regret it if I can’t get out but German games usually get some volume close to kick off so hopefully this one will too. Based purely on the stats, I would rate this as a 2-0 or 3-0 all day long. Time will tell!

Update

I don’t often do updates on the day’s trades, I barely have time to post the trades these days let alone the results but this time I felt I must, if only to show this lovely screenshot of the Norrkoping game, my only nailed on LTD for the day. It’s probably the best LTD scoreline I have ever seen in all the years I have been doing this, so it needs to be published I think!

norrkopingI just LOVE the little 87′ goal from the underdog, as if to gain back a bit of pride, hardly 😀

As for the others, briefly…

Ajax, as the stats suggested, it was a very slow game with Ajax scraping a win with just one goal on 55 minutes. I didn’t end up trading it (as a back the draw for 20-30 minutes) as had family here unfortunately.

Valencia – They lost 3-2, but interestingly the stats gave me a good insight here and I wish I had traded this one as I said I might. They were 2-0 down at 54 minutes and if i had spotted that I would definitely have backed them for a comeback. They levelled the game at 2-2 until an injury time goal by Betis to steal it. Another good example of a need for extreme care with the limited stats available so early in a season, regardless of which country the game is in. The odds on Betfair (and the reputation of Valencia which is the main reason for those odds) made the game look like a textbook LTD, especially for those traders who go purely on the odds, which is insane in my view! But the limited stats said be cautious, and rightly so. These leagues are all yet to hot up and show us who can be relied on for a strong win.

Roma…

football betting statisticsI said Roma should win but it could be a tight game until the last 15-20 minutes. I was wrong, it was a tight game until the last minute!

 

 

Sunday 11 September

Ha, I had a sneaky feeling Barcelona would lose. I had a cheeky £2 bet at 70-1 for “Any Other Away Win” which was one of those silly hunch things. I thought there would be a lot more goals but fancied Barca might lose that game. Only half right unfortunately so I lose the painful sum of two squid, but interesting to note that Barca were indeed beaten at home, I bet an awful lot of gamblers lost a lot of money yesterday, many people just back Barcelona no matter how small the price which is both stupid and dangerous as proven yesterday. To think they were priced around 1.1 if i remember right, what a joke!

Today….

Norrkoping (Sweden) – I like the look of this game a lot, as a LTD trade, and the price is probably fair but I am not entering until 15 minutes in hopefully at about 4.9 or 5 max.

Ajax – Nowhere near a LTD on those stats, an away win or draw is easily possible here, making the crazy odds a value bet. Not for me simply because I won’t be at my desk today, but if I was I would be watching that game with interest and would probably back the draw for 20-30 minutes, hoping for a goal from the away team or no goals for some green.

Valencia – nowhere near enough stats but they look like winning, although I wouldnt be interested unless they went 1-0 or 2-0 down, for a value bet to back them at decent odds. As the odds are, I couldn’t be less interested.

Roma v Sampdoria – Same as above, Roma should win but it coiuld be a tight game until the last 15-20 minutes, so the only bet I would be interested in is a late value bet if Roma are looking like struggling and the odds reverse by about 70 minutes.

 

10 Sept

Barcelona – I was half tempted to lay Under 2.5 goals, if it was later in the season I definitely would as the price is now 1.74 which I think is cheap given their last win scoring 6 goals, with 8 goals in the game total! However not enough stats have played out this year to know if that was a one off, and even though its Barcelona and that is unlikely, it’s possible so I am resisting the trade this time.

 

Update

Good old Bayern undid both me and their form card, until very late that is. 2-0 win, but all too late for LTDers. I did sneak a cheeky hedge by laying under 2.5 goals at the wonderful price of 1.02 and greened after the second goal, so not a bad day in the end at all

Update

Schalke game didn’t seem as lively as I would have hoped at the start so I got in quite a bit later when still 0-0. Hoping for a goal before 60 minutes or I will exit for a small red

Midtjtlland v Esbjerg Back draw – As I expected it’s 65 minutes and still 0-0. That’s enough for me, exit time.

Breda v Jong PSV – Stats stats stats. That game should never have been priced up around the ridiculous 5, and as expected Breda haven’t even scored and its over 70 minutes in! I didn’t trade this one, but I forgot to mention that when doing these, an away goal can often obtain even more green. The price is now 3.5 ish to exit, a nice green for someone there. That reminds me of another method I could write a page about, a very nice simple method for learners. It’s to do with games like this where the underdog scores first, although it usually applies only to games which were borderlin (but rejected) LTD trades. More on that later.

Rostov – I didn’t trade this in the end, I forgot about it at first but then couldn’t find the market on the Betfair coupon for some reason. A nice low risk trade with a home goal around 30 minutes in.

Friday 9 September

Well yesterday’s Brazil game was a bit of a stonker in the end finishing up 3-0 to the home team. It also had a rare bit of luck for some of you, or at least one of you anyway! It’s nice when this happens, the first goal took 46 minutes to be scored but within another minute it was 2-0. Whenever trading out after a goal (from home or away team), I always allow at least 60 seconds for the market to settle as you can sometimes lose quite a few ticks from the wild prices jumping around after the game unsuspends after a goal. In this case, you would been on the lucky side of a suspension as the second goal should have been scored before you exited, if you were exiting and greening up immediately after the first goal. So that should have seen green figures doubled or thereabouts, nice 🙂

I have been burned before where this happened but it was an equalising goal, but its definitely worth the one minute wait over the long term in my experience. On to today then…

Schalke v Bayern – limited stats, but the little there are suggests a good 3-0 or 4-0 away win for Bayern here. However the price is 6, which is far too high for a normal LTD. I may trade it with my stop loss moving from 2 to 3, again half the odds of entry, making it the same amount of risk as a normal trade, except that Bayern need to score before HT really for a good win. I think they will, so may well trade this one, but I may opt to watch the first 5 minutes of the game first, just to check it looks as good as I would expect.

Interesting one this. Midtjtlland v Esbjerg – Those stats are NOT in line with the draw price of 4.6. In fact it is so far out of whack I think this is a value to BACK the draw. Always small stakes with these types of bets, as they could of course go ahead early and win the game strongly. But their last home game they drew 2-2 with a team lower in ranks than this opponent. Also, Esbjerg recently played that same opponent, and drew 1-1 with them also. This smells like a back the draw to me and I would probably hold on if the home team went ahead even 2-0 ahead, as it could well be close later on in the game. therefore the stake has to be a sum I am happy to lose and so it must be small enough not to mess with the LTD results for the day.

Breda v Jong PSV looks similar to above, but I won’t be doing two in one day so I will miss this one.

Rostov v Kryliya Sovetov – This is one I would just ignore usually, as it’s not a great trade based on stats alone. But the odds of the draw below 3.5 makes it extremely tempting. Almost worth a go on a 60-40 chance, and I think there is around that at minimum favouring a 1-0 lead from the home team. Some days I would miss this out, some days I would be tempted, very very borderline.

Thu 8 September

Well as expected yesterday’s Brazil game wasn’t a stonker, but it was a winner with a goal just before the HT whistle. This is why I felt the odds were high up around 4.5, I would have rated it worthy of around 4.2 max.

Today is similar, with only one game on my shortlist and stats found (eventually) using Soccerstats.com which is my backup stats site but it has changed a lot in recent years and I hate the interface now, so much harder to get a nice H2H display like Soccerway.com, which is my favourite stats site.

Corinthians v Sport Recife – This is almost identical, although I think it’s a stronger trade than last night’s game. They score well, around 1.8 goals per game on average at home, the away team are pretty dismal away from home but can keep a tight defence sometimes hence my slight caution. I fancy a 2-0 or 2-1 result here, with a goal from the home team in the first 30 minutes hopefully for an easy trade. If I can find a stream I might hold out for a second goal if they do go ahead early, but i they go ahead between 30 minutes and HT I will be out with my green at 1-0.
As I have been typing this the lay the draw odds have dropped from 4.5 to 4.4, which is just about acceptable. I would prefer 4.2 if I could get it so I may watch it in case it’s on the way in, but 4.5 is my max for this trade.

Wednesday 7 September

One possible LTD today Atletico MG v Vitoria – Brasil Serie A. Stats are hard to come by for this game, but from what I did manage to find, this looks a reasonable selection. The danger is the away team do score goals even away from home, which is fairly rare for Brasilian teams. Having said that, it does look very strong for the home team this game. I don’t fancy it for much more than 4.5 odds, so I am hoping to see it come in a bit later in the day, the game doesn’t kick off until late tonight.

Update

Well Bayern didn’t perform anything like they have been, although the away team proved they can score. Not a major loss given the movements in the odds, and that’s assuming an exit straight after the away goal (once market settled), some I know will wait and could well have done a lot better by the lead taken by the away team beginning to reflect in the odds.

It was a shame the volume didn’t improve on Bath going by the goal on 28 minutes.

Tuesday 6 September

Bayern v Wacker – Well I have been mulling over this game for a while now. On one hand it looks excellent, especially at the very cheap price of low 4s. On the other hand, the away team certainly scores a lot of goals away from home, which can be a pain for a LTD trade. After swinging back and forth I have decided I think there is enough value to trade it. However, given the scoring times of the away team (late, post 60 minutes), I will be out of any trade around 55 minutes latest, no matter what. There is an argument to trade the first 30 minutes only, if Bayern don’t lead by then, it might be worth taking a cheap red and getting out, but I have done this before and regretted it, unless watching the game which I am not sure will be possible yet. So my decision at least for now is to trade this as per normal, exiting at 55 minutes regardless of the scoreline.

Bath City v Oxford – The stats look lovely for this game. Home team scoring strongly, away team scoring naff all and conceding nicely. League positions tally up nicely too. A definite trade based on the stats, but the liquidity is very low at the moment. I will need to see this come up quite a bit before 1945hrs before knowing it’s safe to trade, I hate it when I get in, the goals come, but I can’t exit due to lack of money in the ladders, and then I end up being forced to take a rubbish amount of green just to close out my trade. This has a huge impact on the risk reward, as you don’t need volume to lose your stake, only to take your green out! One to watch this, if the money comes in I will be on it like a shot.

Update

Well today went well. But I just thought I would give a few comments on why being selective is my chosen approach these days, and why in particular I was extra choosy today.

Macclesfield – 3-1 – Obviously this was a green trade, and following my usual strategy of waiting for a second goal if the first comes early enough, that increased the green significantly making it a much more useful trade. In this case the reason I did it was because all of the recent home games bar one (v Lincoln City) Macclesfield have scored at least 2 goals.

Carlisle  – while it was cheap, that isn’t enough reason to trade on its own. In this case, the stats show in their last 3 home games, they have only scored one goal per game, and their last 2 home games ended 1-1. How useful stats are considering today’s game ended 1-1 and would have been a losing trade. Stats stats stats 🙂

Screen Shot 2016-09-03 at 20.15.31

Bolton – Again, there is a good reason why I said I would wait 20-30 minutes and/or watch some of the game if I could ideally. Here is what I was looking at when i made that decision..

Screen Shot 2016-09-03 at 20.06.22It was all there for the taking. Southend score 80% of their goals in the first 30 minutes, so that was the danger time. And as the result showed, that was indeed the danger again today, they scored in that period, but most importantly, they scored first which is often the most costly type of losing trade.

ebooksmallFor those who have read my new ‘Laying the Draw eBook’ you will understand in great detail why I look at these things and why I stick to my guts when something concerns me in the stats. For those who haven’t read it, why not? 😀 – If you want to know my LTD trading approach inside out, check it out here.