Favorite Betfair Trading – My Diary & Methods

Betfair Trading

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Welcome to my site where I explain my approach to trading the Betfair markets, why I do it, how I do it, and how you can too using some of the methods I have picked up and devised over the many years. Betfair trading is tax-free, it allows traders to work from the comfort of their own home with no travel costs and very few setup costs. If you’re a sports fan, it’s also an extremely enjoyable way to earn a living!

** My ‘Lay The Draw’ eBook is finally published! **

As many of my readers know, I have been working on writing a detailed eBook to publish my entire method for analysing and implementing my football trades. This is something I have been asked to do by literally hundreds of people over the years but I just never found the time until now. The footie break this summer especially with the Euros, gave me a nice relaxed period to finally put pen to paper and document each and every step, every click, every glance I make when choosing my daily Betfair trades.

ebooksmallHaving been doing this for so many years, it took a lot of time and effort to actually document everything I do because so much of it is done on auto-pilot. But finally it’s done, and after asking a few people to have a look at it and give me their thoughts, the views are very positive so I hope this will provide many readers with an extremely useful insight into this simple strategy for trading full time on Betfair. Click here to read more.

I am repeatedly being asked to publish more of my Befair trading strategies but this takes time to document fully, I am working on it. I have recently updated my page about horse racing trading where I outline my preferred methods, if that’s more your thing.

Friday 21 October

Monaco v Montpellier – This looks good. It’s either a KO trade or a HT trade, or for some perhaps a half stake @ KO and add to it at HT if 0-0. However, it’s strong enough and cheap enough to be in from the KO in my view so I will be.

Cork – This looks good, very good, but its pricey, and there is one big fly in the ointment which is that only 4 days ago they played each other and St Patricks put 3 goals past Cork which, if this was worth the price (5) I would say that would knock my confidence in a trade. So this is a leave alone job, unless a better opportunity comes up in play.

Wisla Kracow – This game has me scratching my head. It isn’t a trade, but it looked it on the odds, until I saw the league positions which baffle me! The goal stats suggest this has a strong chance of being a draw, so I ain’t touching it. In play opportunities could come up there, if the home team go ahead, certainly if 2-0 up, I may be looking at laying them with small stakes.

RKX Waalwijk v Achilles 29 – This is massively overpriced, but if it’s 0-0 at 60 minutes it could offer some value to LTD or lay U2.5.

Le Havre v Ajaccio – This is borderline on the stats, but I do think Le Havre should manage some goals here based on who they have scored against and how the Ajaccio’s form looks so dismal. But the price is good at 3.65 and that offers a long trade from KO with much less risk than usual, so despite not being blown away by the goal stats, I think this has value as a KO trade at this price.

Breda v Fortuna – One of the most overpriced draws I have seen in a long time. I am half tempted to back the draw for 30 minutes just to ride that price collapse when/if it is as dull as the home form and stats suggest it should be! But I wont be doing that, instead I might just look for a way to take advantage in play, if an op comes up.

Stuttgart v Munich – Slightly higher price than I would like, but I do like the stats and form so I am going to go for this one from KO. HT may be a better entry for someone trying to preserve funds/reduce risk.

Small lay

http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2016/10/18/austria/1-liga/lask-linz/fc-magna-wiener-neustadt/2244008/head2head/ – this game is 0-2 currently. I have laid the away team. It’s not a super low risk job so need to be sensible, but the probabilities of a home goal (or home win even) are higher than the odds suggest so its a value bet for me


Crikey, it doesn’t surprise as much as I am sure it surprised many punters and traders alike. There is a method which I know quite a few people follow based on stats provided by a certain website online. That site gave the stats as:

Chances of a Draw – 5%!!!!!

Over2.5 – 75%!!

I lost a bit but not much as the game was far too cagey to get involved earlier but I did genuinely expect a flurry of late goals, although it needed that one goal to break the 1 point each deadlock going on. That didn’t come and in light of that I am not surprised by the lack of goals, I am still convinced one goal would have led to 3+ goals once the game was everyones to win or lose. I shudder to think how much money was traded on the stats though as a simple “Unders Lay” or worse still a LTD.

Spanish game was back and forth and plenty of green in there. I missed a trade earlier in a swedish game, can’t even remember the teams names now, laying the away team which was 0-2 up around 30 minutes. I thought I placed it. Got on the phone to a friend for a while, heard the pings and score go to 2-2, grinned from ear to ear and boasted to him about how i just made a very handsome bit of green, opened BF and was shocked to see no green at all. Bet wasn’t matched. That’s the second time I have done that this week. Some improvement in my concentration is needed at the moment I think, can’t afford to let things pass by like that, its hard enough to find good sized greens sometimes let alone when you dont bother to make sure of your bets!

I am focussing on some horse racing trading stuff at the moment, documenting some methods and strategies for both IR and Pre Off stuff. It is proving hard to document it as I do a lot without really consciously thinking about it, but I will get there. Some great things can be done on horse markets so hopefully I will have something well worth reading soon.

Braunschweig was a dull game after all, but again that’s not what the probabilites favoured at all. The same stats site (which is pretty damn good usually, or always used to be when I bothered to look at it more often) had that game down at over 60% probability of O2.5, so more punters lost out there I think but the LTD was safe with the nicely timed goal to avoid any sweaty palms at 60+ minutes!



Torn between LTD and U2.5 but I think U2.5 is the one to go for. It’s survivable if it ends 0-0, allows more time in the trade, and will offer more green for a sudden late flurry of goals, which I think will happen when someone breaks the silence, which will probably be liverpool based on form and stats.


Although this doesn’t line up for a LTD based on the odds, it does look a goalsy game to me so i may consider a LTD at 30mins if no goals (which I think is unlikely, hence why I wont enter til then if it happens) or if I don’t trade and somehow the game gets to 70 minutes ish or wenever the U2.5 price is around 1.2, I will be laying U2.5.

Monday 17 October

Eibar v Osasuna – Not great but if it’s 0-0 at 40 minutes I may have a LTD, hopefully after watching some of the game.

Braunschweig v Kaiserslautern – I am a bit baffled by the price here, the stats look more like a 5.5 LTD than a 3.8?!!?!?!?! I must be missing something. time to read the team sheets and news feeds i think. but before doing that, i will mention what i like about it and, if i can’t find any negatives, this looks a definite trade for me.

statsstatsObviously the form card looks excellent. The goal stats do as well. The home form is nothing but wins, away form draws or losses. If i could find a negative it would be the scoring times, an ideal entry might be around 30-40 minutes, or even HT for a very tight trader. But at 3.8 ish to LTD at KO, I just don’t see any reason not to be involved for a good 60-70 minutes, surely a green will come in that time!? Off to find out what I am missing here….. !!

Sunday 16 October

Anderlecht v Lokoren – Liquidity is low, but if game its a half time LTD if game is level

St Ettiene v Dijon – Stats suggest this is a 60 minute LTD bet, rather than a KO trade, in an ideal world. But I have a feel St Etienne could score earlier here against such weak opponents. The goal stats could be better, but the price could be a LOT worse. It’s at 3.7 currently so due to that, this is a KO LTD for me, maybe  for half stakes, adding another half stake at HT if still 0-0. I may watch the opening 5-10 minutes on half stakes to decide whether to add the other half early or wait. It could well be a tight game until the last 20 minutes or so, but at such a cheap price I would rather be involved from the KO.

ADO Den Hag v Ajax – Torn between waiting for HT for a cheaper entry, or taking it from KO. Since the odds are 4.8 I think I will go with a KO trade, if it was over 5 I would wait for a better price in play.

Mainz v Darmstadt – Interesting one this. In many ways it could be argued that this shouldn’t be touched, unless level at 70-75 minutes. But despite no home wins for Mainz, they have scored heavily in the games they have lost, they just have a bad defensive record. But Darmstadt have a useless scoring record and a heavy conceding record. Therefore I think this is likely to be the day Mainz score a good home win which they badly need, they will not be here for a point, they will want all 3 for the win, so all things considered (including the cheap price) this is a KO LTD for me, perhaps adding to the trade at 75 minutes if it goes level again or is still level as the late scoring of Mainz is a huge statistic, I just don’t think they will leave it that late this time.

Sassuolo v Crotone – Another interesting one but I will leave this alone purely because of the trade above, I don’t take too many “interesting” ones in the same day. Home team don’t score a lot, but away team don’t either and they do concede goals. There is a chance of a HT or later LTD here but not sure yet.

Inter v Cagliari – Very high priced considering Inter aren’t scoring too well of late. However one to watch for a LTD in play after HT as I do think Inter need a win here to get themselves up where they feel they belong in the table.

Sion v Grasshopper – Aside from the fact someone really needs to help them name their football teams properly (:D) this isn’t a trade as such, but one to note as if its level at 75 minutes I may get involved either on the draw market or the U/O2.5 market.

Small lay

I am having a very small lay on Elche in the Zaragoza game. I do not expect to win any money, so it’s extremely low liability stuff, but the stats suggest Zaragoza should score a goal or two in this game usually anyway. The 0-3 scoreline is usually something to avoid as the game is almost certainly over, but if it came back to 1-3 or 2-3 there could be some nice green many times the liability, and I think there is a reasonable chance of that happening, even though it isn’t overly likely. One of those low risk but low expectation trades.

Other games

I have had an email from a reader ‘James’ asking me to take a look at a few others he spotted and give my thoughts or reasons I didn’t mention them, so here goes…

“- Napoli v Roma – snag here is that they are very close together in the table but everything else from what I can see looks good.
– Doncaster v Colchester
– Sturm Graz v Ried
– Basel v Luzern.”

Napoli – This one I am not sure why but I didn’t look at. It was probably just missed in my fast skim down the page, the odds are under 4 on the draw which can present a great trade but I do sometimes miss them as they are sometimes (more often than not) too close for LTD trades for me. However, looking at this one..

Yes the goal stats look good. I would say not quite good enough for a KO trade, as the stats show Roma score early sometimes and Napoli rarely do, so may as well wait 20 minutes for a trade. However, as you rightly say, they are right next to each other in the table. This doesn’t always negate a trade, but it usually does, and I think it would for me here, certainly with a KO trade. I would need to watch some of this game before committing any money to it. If it looks cagey as these games can often be, I may leave it alone, or take a late low liability position only. The home form of Napoli is certainly attractive, and they love to score goals, Roma do concede a goal or two as well, as I don’t dislike this game, especially at that price of 3.9. I am almost tempted,  but still would stick to my guns (rightly or wrongly) and plan to trade this 20 minutes in earliest, IF watching and its an attacking game, and of course if it’s still 0-0.

Doncaster – I did look at this one actually, I didn’t mention it as I dont mention all the games I check on the coupon. In this case it didn’t look too bad, but in the normal approach of finding reasons “not to trade” I found a couple of points which put me off enough to avoid it from KO anyway. Those points are:

  1. Doncaster have conceded 2 goals in each of their last three games. Maybe that doesn’t mean anything, but maybe it means they are having trouble defending at the moment, a small negative but one which can hurt a LTD quite badly.
  2. Colchester only concede 1.17 goals per game away from home, which is less than they do at home (1.5). This can sometimes indicate a team which plays tight when away, and plays more openly when at home. Of course this point contradicts point 1, they can’t both be true, but it’s another negative and when I spotted 1.17 on my skim through the stats, that was enough to close it out for me. But that doesnt mean I am right, and I can easily see a 3-0 home win here, I just don’t think it’s likely enough to risk a  trade on it.

Sturm Graz – Totally agree, the stats are superb, and this looks a nailed on trade to me. However, the reason I didn’t mention it is because I didn’t spot it as I would have rejected it at the coupon sift stage due to the low volume. Again, this doesn’t mean it can’t be traded, but in my hasty run down the list, I tend to reject games with less than 5k matched, especially on a Saturday when there are many more traders/punters around to bet on these events. I would probably check this again around KO and if the volume comes up and looks tradeable, I would definitely be interested. I just tend to write these off early as I have had a few annoying trades in the past where everything went great, but I couldn’t exit and either took a red (even on a winning trade) or waited for my trade to get matched and missed my exit as a goal came in from the other team! It’s a definite trade, just a possible volume issue here.

Basel – Again this was probably a volume issue as to why I didn’t check it. But having a look now, its nearly at 5k matched, but thats still not confidence inspiring, although possibly tradeable. My feeling is its wise to go half stakes on any low volume games where there are nerves about being able to exit. As for the stats here, I am not that keen. It certainly looks likely that a home win is highly probable. But I really don’t like Basel’s last home game where they only managed to draw 1-1 with the bottom team of the league, that’s a definite concern even against all the green results before that. What might have changed? Maybe nothing, maybe something important. That’s enough to reject for me, given the liquidity issues. Looking at the scoring times, I might be interested in post 75 minute very low liability LTD or any other low lay, as trading out wouldn’t be a problem them due to being so late and the whistle could save the trade even if the market can’t let you out! Finally, as a rule, I don’t trade any league which has a team called “Young Boys” in it. Frankly they should be hiding that sort of thing in my view, I know we are all liberalised these days, but thats taking it a bit far for me. HAHAHA 😀

Saturday 15th October

Las Palmas v Espanyol is a good example of how stats can, at least occasionally, be undone by live action. More importantly, this is why my lay the draw ebook talks a lot about money management and letting a bad trade go, without chasing it or trying to recoup anything. Losing trades are as much a crucial part of trading as winning ones, they are your costs of running the business, there is no business without risk or costs of upkeep. Losing trades are nothing more, just regular outgoings which make the greens possible.

In this case, the stats were extremely strong, so this was a good trade. No goals were scored, which looking at the sheet below is surprising, but that is of course trading. Surprises happen, this is the exact reason for managing the bank and stakes sensibly, anything can happen at any time, in any market. Planning for that, but trading based on probabilities is simply the only way to trade in any market.

As you can see, neither team has failed to score. The average goal stats are huge, the away team conceding 2.67 goals per game, and the home team scoring the same amount, most of them in the second half. These are stats to look out for, nothing is guaranteed, but look for angles into a game like this which is at 0-0 around HT and you can’t do much wrong over the long term.


So what do we have today? …..

Betis v Real Madrid – I don’t think I will be trading this unless an opportunity comes up during the game, but it’s an interesting one to look at stats wise, here they are. Yes it’s Real Madrid, yes everyone would expect a strong away win, and so would I. But the stats tell at least a slightly different story. Firstly the last time they met they drew 1-1. That can be significant, not always, but can be. Secondly they both concede 0.67 goals per game, that is certainly significant. It doesn’t guarantee no goals of course, far from it, but it does suggest both teams could find it hard to score for a while. On the other hand Madrid are unbeaten away and score 2.33 goals per game on average. All in all this is a leave alone job I think, but in days gone by I would have considered laying over 2.5goals or laying madrid for 20-30 minutes from KO, depending on the play. I can see a chance that Betis could take the lead here or at least make things tougher for Madrid than the odds would suggest. No trade for me, but one to watch perhaps.

Norwich v Rotherham – At a glance this looks a great pick for a LTD. But as usual, before committing I do some more in depth stuff such as looking at who they played and who they won/lost to recently. This is where a few very small concerns come in, but at this price of 5.5 I think its enough to avoid it. I expect Norwich to do the business strongly here, but the form card shows they do usually concede a goal (which is costly to such a high priced trade) and Rotherham do score a goal in most games, again a concern. If it was 4.5 I would be interested, but at this price its another one to leave alone unless something odd happens to give us a better edge, such as Rotherham going ahead by 2 goals. Unlikely, very unlikely, but I would rather keep the old powder dry unless something kicks me in the head saying “trade me” 🙂

Newcastle v Brentford – It made it only the shortlist purely on odds, but one glance at the form card and the first thing I noticed was Newcastle’s 0-0 draw with much lower team Wigan. That’s enough for me to close the window right there.

Man 5hitty v Everton – Another one which looks “obvious” to a gambler, certainly to a ManCity fan, but to me there are plenty of flags to say leave it alone unless something odd happens again. Both teams concede too few goals so even though a 4-0 win is entirely possible, I would not chance a trade here unless it was second half and the price was excellent. Everton have a good defence, and a good defence is one of the biggest enemies to a LTD trader.

Hearts v Dundee – nowhere near strong enough to merit those odds, but one thing I did notice is this:

screen-shot-2016-10-15-at-11-04-51I like the look of that huge orange bar down the bottom. if the game is 0-0 or 1-1 at 75 minutes, and the price is right, I could be tempted to LTD for a very low liability.

Brighton V Preston – This is not brilliant but at the price of 4 it’s slightly tempting. I am resisting temptation though, unless it’s 0-0 or 1-1 at HT, in which case a cheap LTD will definitely be on the cards.

Aberdeen v Ross Country – rejected as a LTD, but I noticed their form when playing each other shows a lot of goals. All but one of their past 5 meetings saw 4 or 5 goals, the only exception being two goals in one game. More interesting is that last time Ross County won 4-0 AWAY to Aberdeen! This makes the price of 4.4 seem just a tad high to me! I could be tempted to have a dabble with U/O2.5 goals here, but would need to see half an hour without any goals to get interested, at which point I may have a small lay of Under2.5, adding to it around 60 minutes if still no goals.

MGladbach v Hamburger – Interesting one this. The price seems cheap if you just look at the awesome goal stats. But a look at their head to head shows why, these teams often have odd results, and either team could win it (based purely on their past H2H). The goal stats say the home team will blitz it, but the H2H can be of great importance in these types of games. One thing I do think is highly likely, is there will be plenty of goals. Knowing this is likely, there are various ways to take a position, including LTD but that wouldn’t be my choice. At 65-1 I might have a £2 dabble on the 3-3 scoreline, trading out later if the goals come. On the other hand, Might just hope for a tight first half hour and then see what the odds are on U2.5 and the draw.

Finally, Chelsea v Leicester. This isn’t a stand out trade by any means, but the stat which does stand out is the late scoring tendency of Chelsea, and the way Leicester seem to score all of their goals just after HT (some just before). Worth knowing this last point if doing a LTD which I won’t be, not from KO anyway. This is a suck it and see job. If Leicester happened to go 2-0 up at some point, I might be interested in laying them. If the game is level at HT, I would definitely be interested in a LTD. I may also look to take a position based on the late scoring stats or Chelsea, perhaps with U/O2.5 goals…..



Well Dortmund game saw a goal, two so far but first one from the “wrong” team unfortunately so that was a bail out for break even. The Palmas game looks as dull as ditchwater so out, but the price of U2.5 at 1.02 seems worth a small lay to me. if a goal comes, remove liability, and hope for another for more green, or just take any green on the first, not sure as it depends on odds movements if that happens. But at that price it seems silly with 15 minutes to run, there could be a late blitz of goals. Its unlikely based on the current play, but the stats suggest its more than possible, and the odds suggest its utterly IMpossible!



Las Palmas v Espanyol looks another prospect for a HT LTD. However, the odds are already down to 2.9 which is very cheap based on the very “goalsy” stats, but this usually means people watching the game are reading it as dull and boring, never a good thing. Still, at that very cheap price, its a less than half price trade, so I will have a dabble here I think even before HT. Neither team has failed to score, home team unbeaten at home, surely there’s a goal or two here! Best thing about these trades is, with the odds so low, it doesn’t much matter who scores, so long as someone does, and I think the odds of that happening are a lot better than the draw price now at 2.74 would suggest. value methinks


Well it’s half time and 0-0. Borussia Dortmund have not failed to score yet this season, and are undefeated at home. The only slight hitch is the fact these two teams are right next to each other in the league, so in theory at least, they could both be happy with a point each for a draw. Ideally I would have wanted to see some of the game to know more, but even as it is, the goal stats are pretty heavy on both sides, with Dortmund regularly scoring 2 or 3 goals per game. The away team have a very tight defence at home, but away they apparently concede 2 goals per game. That could be good, but it could be bad, as it could mean they are spending this whole game focussed on preventing goals rather than scoring them. Again, watching some of the game is useful here but I haven’t had a chance as I have been out, so I am taking this as a half price trade just based on the stats, and a slight hope that however hard the away team try to keep it tight at the back, Dortmund should break through eventually, hopefully before 65-70 minutes when I will exit if not.

It’s a borderline one this, there are reasons to leave it alone and reasons to pile in, so almost on the toss of a coin, I will do the latter here 🙂


Well I am a bit disappointed with one of those being a losing trade. America MG did the business with a nice 3-0 win, but Palmeiras couldn’t score. Maybe that’s why it was so cheap! At least that means it was a cheap loser rather than a more painful one which it could have been, as I would have taken that trade at a fair bit higher odds, the stats looked plenty good enough. We have to accept occasionally football games don’t contain goals, sometime they just have no consideration for us traders!

I didn’t bother to check the team sheets on that game as I said I would, which was nothing but laziness really (I was busy!). Oh well, a good winner and a loser, the day could be worse. What’s actually annoying is that I discounted the third of the three Brazil games today, which was a borderline trade on the stats. That would have been a nice winner too, so maybe I shouldn’t be quite so hard on these Brazilian games!

Racing Tipster Service

I have had quite a few people asking me over the past year whether I know of a good horse tipping service, either backing or laying.

I don’t go in for this much, although I did know of a great service (and used it) a few years ago now which stopped as all the good ones do it seems. Anyway, generally I would advise people to avoid these, not just because most of them are utter robbery, but because it can go against the grain of pure trading, and can upset the mental state quite easily if the results are not coming in successfully, which often results in traders becoming gamblers, the biggest threat to any trader!

Having said that, I did promise quite a few people that I would let them know if something good ever came up, and it seemed easier to post it here than trawl through all the emails to find them all individually.

I can’t give details yet as I only heard about it today and it’s not launched yet, but I am ‘reliably’ informed that on November 8th there will be a service launching, a service which (I am told) was extremely successful for a small group of members a while back. More to the point, there will be a discounted launch period of one week, and I am being given access to this price for my readers, so on the 8th November I will post the details (once I get them myself) and let you interested parties know how to trial the service for half price.

Obviously, I am not running the service, and while I trust the guy who informed me about this, I can’t guarantee it in any way, so it’s a case of take yer chances and pays yer money, I don’t want any complaints as I won’t be involved in selections or anything like that! However, I wouldn’t be mentioning it if I didn’t think it looked to be one of the few decent services in this area, so fingers crossed I am right and a few of you will get what you have been harassing me for over the past year or so!! Until 8th November then…