Favorite Betfair Trading – The Easy Way!

Betfair Trading

Nowt like a cuppa after a day’s trading!

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Welcome to my site where I explain my approach to Betfair trading, why I do it, how I do it, and how you can too using some of the methods I have picked up and devised over the many years. Betfair trading is tax-free, it allows traders to work from the comfort of their own home with no travel costs and very few setup costs. On top of that, if you’re a sports fan, it’s an extremely enjoyable way to earn a living!

New to trading? Read my FREE Beginner’s Guide

** My ‘Lay The Draw’ eBook is finally published! **

As many of my readers know, I have been working on writing a detailed eBook to publish my entire method for analysing and implementing my football trades.

This is something I have been asked to do by literally hundreds of people over the years but I just never found the time until now. The footie break this summer especially with the Euros, gave me a nice relaxed period to finally put pen to paper and document each and every step, every click, every glance I make when choosing my daily trades.

ebooksmallHaving been doing this for so many years, it took a lot of time and effort to actually document everything I do because so much of it is done on auto-pilot. But finally it’s done, and after asking a few people to have a look at it and give me their thoughts, the views are very positive so I hope this will provide many readers with an extremely useful insight into this simple strategy for trading full time on Betfair. Click here to read more.

(P.S. I have also been asked by many people about the other football, tennis and horse racing trading methods I use, and yes these will be available soon once I find time to explain them properly!)

Saturday 20 August

Well after looking through a huge shortlist, I have decided to trade absolutely nothing today. It’s been a long wait through the summer but the stats are very thin on all major EU league games, and having looked at some results, even when there are stats to go on, they are generally very unreliable as an indicator of probabilities as there just hasn’t been enough football going on yet to form a good base of information for trading.

So as itchy as I am to trade, I am going to have a relaxing weekend and maybe just do some racing. Football needs a bit more patience, hopefully next Saturday will be as busy as I thought today would be when I saw the coupon earlier!

Friday 19 August

Le Havre v Troyes – Very very tempted here at a lovely price of 4. Le Havre have a good home record against their opponents, but I think I am 51% in favour of leaving it alone just due to the short amount of stats available still so early in the season. Its one of those where I would be surprised if the home team didn’t win strongly, I would expect 2-0 or 3-0, maybe 3-1, but I think it’s still the right call to miss this one out. There are going to plenty of trades coming through the pipework now.

Manure v Southampton – I don’t even care about the stats, and even with Mourinho in charge, I still can’t put my first EPL trading funds on Manure, they have burned me so many times by taking 87 minutes to get going!! So that’s that one out without doing any analysis!

NAC Breda v MVV – another one which looks likely to see a strong home win but not enough stats to back it up, and their home form hasn’t been that great so one to avoid

Valarenga v Bodo – Stats not good enough and price seems ridiculous. They may well win, but their odds of winning are certainly not in line at 1.51 on betfair. Value bet almost there, to go against the punters in some way!

Lyon v Caen – Lyon are one of my best ever teams for LTD trades, but these stats are far too thin to get involved yet with trading money, although I expect them to win strongly, but they might concede a goal or two in the process.

Volendam v Telstar – Another crazily overpriced one. I don’t know why but every single year, the Dutch leagues seem overpriced.

So after all that, no trades for me!

 

Tuesday 16th August

Brighton game – (stats here) – This is a tricky one simply due to the lack of playing time and stats build up. On the face of it I like it a lot, but I am still not 100% sure if it’s still a bit early to trade these. Their 3-0 recent win at home against Notts Forest is good, and I suspect a strong home win here. Just not sure whether to keep powder dry another week or so. I will decide nearer the time this evening.

nothing else of interest today

Monday 15th August

Varnamo v Angelholms – A nice priced trade at 4 to LTD. 6th plays bottom. Good form on both sides and good goal stats. Home team isn’t as prolific at scoring as I would ideally like, but they score just about enough considering the away team concede a lot of goals.

Just out of interest, have a look at stats on this game – http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2016/08/15/denmark/superliga/aalborg-bk/esbjerg-fb/2238299/head2head/ – Another 6th plays bottom, and a much higher price to LTD, so it should be better right?! Nope. Look at the form of both teams, and last time they played with home team at home, the home team lost! This is why stats are so crucial, reading anything into the odds is a recipe for disaster, gamblers don’t do stats very often, so the market prices are an indication of feelings, not probabilities. A handy reminder for anyone who doesn’t check stats!

HJK v KUPS – This is higher priced, but looks a good one. I will either trade from before KO or at HT, those are the two most efficient entries in my view. http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2016/08/15/finland/veikkausliiga/helsingin-jalkapallokubi/kuopion-palloseuraoy/2188056/head2head/

Grrrr!

I popped to the shops and got stuck in traffic. Got home and saw it was still 0-0, just as I clicked to lay the draw, it changed to this…

Screen Shot 2016-08-14 at 15.42.21annoying! but good to see the stats were bang on as far as likely scoring times were concerned. oh well, plenty more fish and all that

Footie begins!

Well it’s early days and stats won’t be too useful for a little while yet, but great to see some league games starting again, it’s felt like a long wait this year for some reason. The Olympics should help avoid some of the frustration for a while longer, although there are still going to be trades to be had.

An interesting one, and a good reason to use my stats instructions as explained in my LTD book, is PSV v AZ today. I know of some people who lay the draw in any football match with an odds on favourite. I think this is suicide, even though some people say this approach does ok in some football seaons/leagues, and here is an example of why….

psv

PSV are priced heavily odds on at 1.45-1.49. That looks a stonker as far as the odds are concerned, and of course they could and may well win easily. But….. the stats show AZ have had a huge run of away form and therefore I actually see this as a better trade to BACK the draw than to lay it! In the old days when I dabbled with other trades I would have probably backed the draw here at the lovely price of 5.2, and trade out after 15-30 minutes if no goals for a green, with a risk of a home goal to ruin the trade, but also a good statistical chance of the away team scoring for a nice windfall. I don’t do stuff like that until much further into the season when I have some knowledge and more reliable stats, and I won’t be doing this one, but just looking at that picture, I don’t see a wise LTD there even though it might come off. As the trading saying goes…. “even a broken clock is right twice a day”. This principle is why so many people lose a lot of money on systems which work some of the time, but only show themselves up for the failures that they are, after a long period of sustained trading.

here is a much nicer option, and what looks like a decent priced trade to me….

Brazil – Fluminense v America MG …

brazilbrazilFor the cautious traders or those short of funds, it might even be one to wait for 30 minutes or half time  to pass before entering if still 0-0. The goal stats look good enough, the form is good enough on both sides (only just) and the price in particular is nice at a little over 4 which is cheap for a decent LTD these days.

Saturday 23rd July Football trading

1430 – Rosenborg v Haugesund – Stats look excellent, price is high at present though. if I can get in before 15 minutes into the game for 4.8 or maybe 4.9, I will lay the draw here.

1500 – Malmo v Kalmar – Ditto above

2000 – Corinthians v Figueirense – Looked possible but I don’t like the very late scoring stats of the home team. They should walk all over Fig but I wont be trading it unless it gets to 75 minutes and is still a draw (no score or score draw) then I might have a low risk late dabble

Nothing else of interest despite quite a long shortlist

Well Dodged!!!

Well then! How’s about that for ducking a bullet?!

dodgedThat would have been a very nasty losing trade. Just goes to show that these reasons for avoiding a trade are not just as important as finding winning ones, they are MORE important. A 70 year old stock market veteran trader once said much the same thing to me along the lines of…

‘Any idiot can find a winning trade. Even an ape can pick the future right half the time, when it can only go two ways. The secret to being successful is being able to avoid all but the very best, strongest, most secure trades. Turning down a borderline trade is probably the hardest thing any trader has to do, and it’s the one thing which separates the pros from the rest.’

How-To-Resist-Temptations

I will never forget the lessons I learned from him many years ago now. He spoke about how he only became successful when he consistently managed to switch off all his emotions and look at something in plain black and white, like a calculator looks at the numbers you punch in. There is no place for feelings are hopes. I felt sure Molde would win that game. Even the stats suggested strongly that they would. But the risk v reward balance wasn’t there, and this is precisely why every single part of the trading decision making process is as crucial as any other. In this case it saved me a full losing trade, or possibly worse, as after the dog scored, I don’t know what the odds did but they could have dropped below the planned stop loss level, which is the nastiest kind of loss when laying the draw.

Remember this is all outlined in detail in my new ebookclick here for more info.

Shortly after I posted the message about this game, I thought about it a bit more and realised there were as many arguments, perhaps even more, to suggest the right move was to BACK the draw rather than Lay it. In effect, when you find strong reasons not to lay the draw, you’re almost acknowledging that backing it might be the better trade, IF you HAD to trade (which of course we don’t ever feel we have to trade). I could have backed the draw at 4 near enough, just before HT. Just a 15 minute slot after HT without any goals (or that dog goal would have been a cracker) would have seen some healthy green in the bank. It was actually a method I used a lot once upon a time, a method which I will explain fully at some point as it is viable, I just don’t do it as much any more because I don’t sit all day every day in front of livescore reports, but for those who do, it could be a very useful weapon in the arsenal, no pun intended 😀

 

short notice possible trade

Not certain whether I will do this or not, it could be overpriced anyway. But Molde v Start is 1-1 approaching HT. The stats speak for themselves:

stats

The one problem is the price. It’s hovering around 3.75 just before HT, which to me seems high despite the stats. Ok I think a home win is highly likely based on those stats, but if they don’t score within 20 or so minutes of the KO of the second half, it could be a fast losing trade with much less time for a goal than an average trade would have. Hmmm, tricky! I think on reflection (after typing this!) I would say it’s a tough one but the sensible decision is probably to leave it alone.

Sorry if you read this thinking I was trading it, I thought I was too a few minutes ago 😀

Two nice trades, missed

Well thanks to power cuts and dodgy internet all day today, I didn’t do either of these. That slight element of doubt was enough to put me off. But looks like both turned out to be nice winning trades. I learned something even if I didn’t win any green today. Don’t be snobby, when the stats look right, have faith! 😀

Hold onto your hats!

I MAY have just found a trade from one of the longest but worst football coupons I have ever had the need to trawl through! Perhaps more than one…

Brazil Game – Santos v Ponte Preta – Not as good as the odds suggest so I wont be in before KO. But I reckon if the odds get to 3.5 before a goal is scored, I will be laying the draw. Here are the stats:

football stats

Some negatives are obvious here:

  • The teams are only a few places apart in the league
  • Both have 23 league points
  • Away team don’t concede that many goals.

On the plus side:

  • Away team score (when they do score) most away goals in first 30 minutes
  • Home team won 5 home games, lost one
  • Home team only failed to score once
  • Home team concede a third of a goal per game, nice!

So, for me this is not a nailed on preKO trade, but it’s a definite possibility in play. Will watch some of the game if I can, for an extra edge/view.

A few others I looked at….

Danish game – Copenhagen – wouldn’t touch with your money!

Wigan v Manure – ????….

Wigan gameErmmmm, I know Wigan can be a bit rough on a weekend, but it’s a bit rude to call it a foreign team. (International/Friendly). Ha ha, and I can’t see it being all that friendly either!!

 

Now then…. here’s an interesting one….

Kazakhstan Premier League – ?!!?! That’s a new one for my trade selections! I was about to make a funny quip like “I ain’t trading this because Borat isn’t being fielded” 😀 However, I am laughing on the other side of my face after checking the stats….

Kazakhstan?!I can’t really bring myself to say the words “I am trading this one” but, well I can’t find many reasons not to! Home team is league leader, always a good pick for LTD trades. Unbeaten at home, another great indicator usually. 9 wins, one draw! I wouldnt expect much volume but again I am put in my place. 5k the night before, that could well grow to 10-20k before KO, making it quite possibly an ideal trade! Still not convinced, new leagues always make me nervous! I will see how much bottle I wake up with. 😀

Cheers for now

Nowt today

I got my hopes up a bit when I saw Malmo playing, home favourites and league toppers, but the away team scores over 2 goals per game, so I suppose this is another day of sitting on the LTD hands!

 

Wow, is this a trade I see before me?

Atletico PR v America MG – Brazil game. This looks decent enough. The home scoring average is a little lower than I would ideally like (1.4 goals per game) but the horrific conceding stats of the away team make up for that and should help ensure the home team score at least 2 goals here, even though we only need one for a winning trade. The away team are bottom of the league and struggling by the look of it. I generally approach Brazilian games with a bit of caution, not because they don’t produce winners but because I have had quite a few trades with very late goals in the past. Purely going by the stats, it’s a 30 minute LTD this, so someone struggling with a small bank and finding the entry price pre KO of 4.5 a bit high for their liking, this is one of those you could wait for a 30 min 0-0 scoreline to get involved. A few pics of the stats…

football trading stats

Excellent home form and suitably rubbish away form

Screen Shot 2016-07-02 at 19.12.04

The other one on my shortlist for today was the Peru game (Juan Aurich) and whilst the odds look perfect, the stats are the opposite, I would be more inclined the back the draw here, certainly if one team goes ahead. But it’s a no trade for LTD simply based on the first check I do which is the league positions. They are neighbours in the league table which is always a no go for me, as many readers know this is one of my no-break rules.

For those that don’t know my method or selection criteria, you will probably have seen I have now finally published my LTD method after years of being asked. This summer has presented me with enough boredom and free time (with so few footie trades) that I finally pulled my finger out and documented my process in full detail. Click here to find out more.

What a junk coupon…

Ok, this time of year we dont expect much, but Saturday’s can often find something worth having a go at. Not today though. Seattle almost made me click, but yanks can’t play “soccer” so that just doesn’t interest me to even look if stats exist!

I SO nearly layed the remain vote, it was 1.18 on Betfair when I looked but I was going out and too busy to care much. But no question that was an ENORMOUS VALUE BET. 1.18 while not one single talking head could call it either way. It was a coin toss, everyone knew that, the result proved it. So what the hell is 1.18 all about?! I should have a grand on that at least, wish I had now but that’s the way it goes I suppose. And I wouldn’t have left it to a bet. I watched the market through the night during the results, and I felt pretty damn sure there was some inside info going on. I had live pictures on of the news as well as various websites reporting instantly as the results came in. It was interesting to see the odds JUMP wildly, BEFORE any news was announced, and then the news came showing the reason for the jump. As Sunderland vote came in, the price jumped from (if I remember right) 1.4 to 1.57, but it jumped before the news was announced. Sounds like some slimey git made a few quid there! (Would I do the same given the chance? No comment :D) Anyway, that’s where I would have traded out at least partially. 1.18 to 1.57 is a huge chunk of cash with a decent lay on. Actually what I would have done is traded out my risk, but left all the green on the leave side. As far as I could see, it was looking likely even early on that a leave was on the cards. The types of areas which were borderline (but expected to be strong remain), and the fact that the working man vote (Sunderland for example) was so strongly in favour of leave, it was a no brainer from where i was siting. In fact to be really honest, I should have laid at 1.5 as I had an hour or two to take that price whilst I was certain it was going to be a leave win, or at the very least an extremely close call, so there was loads more room for a profitable lay trade, but having seen it at 1.18 and not bothered, I wasn’t getting involved later. A good example of cutting off your nose to spite your face there, not a good trading mentality that either, but just being honest 🙂

tennis-productWon’t be long til lots of footie to trade, in the mean time I hope you’re all having a good summer, and looking forward to some tasty skirts at Bimbledon! There are some great trades to be had at wimbledon thanks to fast pictures from the BBC. I will soon be publishing some of the methods I use on the Tennis page, but until then, the best methods I have seen online are Pete’s methods, well worth a look if interested in doing more than just ogling at the lovely rear ends on display.

Cheers for now

How many people are going to resist LTD Spain v Turkey?!

Much discussion today with friends (traders) about this. I haven’t been following the Spanish team much recently so I don’t even know much about their player line up. This is an international game which is reason number 1 why it’s a no trade for me. Stats won’t be easy to find or easy to rely on. Having said that, it’s the kind of game where I am pretty sure, if I am watching and it looks busy (in Spain’s favour) and it’s 0-0 at 30-45 minutes, I would probably be getting involved. I would be on reduced stakes as it’s not a purely stats based trade. I only share that because so many people I know will be considering it as a “trade”. It’s not what I would call a true trade, but it’s one of those rare times when I might bend my rules just a tiny amount, IF what i see is impressive and the odds get very cheap. Huge value is what’s needed to bring me away from my rules even just slightly, so I want the advantage of some game time to watch, AND a lot of value in the price on offer.
that’s all for today

Isn’t this boring!

I do hate this time of year, it’s easy to get tempted into borderline trades as the boredom sets in while football takes its short break. But one of the most important lessons I learned about trading many moons ago now, is learning when NOT to trade. This is just as critical to success as knowing when to take a trade. I get itchy fingers but I don’t let them crawl across the mouse unless something clear comes up, and nothing is clear at the mo that’s for sure. There will be trades in the next week or so I think, a few have come up which were almost good enough, but not quite, and it’s good to practice turning down a trade, it’s an important muscle to exercise!

During the boredom I have yet more requests for me to publish some of my methods. I have given in and I am using this lull in football trading to put together some products and guides to some of the strategies I use. Some of them are old strategies which I have twisted to make them my own, and better in my opinion. Some of them are probably not known by many people at all. I am not sure how much of my toolkit to publish, but I am definitely doing a very detailed manual on my approach to laying the draw as that is one of the most common requests I get. I will also be doing some guides on some other lesser known methods which I use to good effect when the opportunities arise. I will update the blog once anything is ready for launching, not far away for the LTD manual. Hopefully it will satisfy a few people who keep asking (and to be fair, who I promised to do it for over 2 years ago now!) and it will also reduce the number of questions I get about people’s thoughts on games and whether they are decent picks for laying the draw or not. This manual will explain every single detail of what I do each day to select trades, how I trade them, what causes me to cancel a trade, how/when I green up and what I do when things go wrong in a trade.

I am doing a lot more racing trading these days, especially when the football is slow, so I may even talk myself into sharing some of those methods too, some of them are absolute corkers!

Here’s to the start of the next footie season!

Cheers for now

Tim

Did someone say there is a gamble on?

I can’t remember the last time I saw a horse price collapse that fast!

It went…….

Horse Racing trend

and went…..

Screen Shot 2016-06-10 at 16.45.51

Be glad when footie season starts again though!

I will be away for around two weeks from Monday so there may be no updates during that time. Good luck to all and hope the weather stays this good for the whole of summer!

Unimpressive winner

Just a quick post as a couple of people asked me why the odds didn’t move on that trade.

As the stats suggested, lahti scored, and not far off their exact statistical average for 1st goal scored. Nice. But the price didn’t move! Well it did, but not much, and certainly nowhere near as much as 99% of games do after the home favourite scores. Normally the odds would have gone out to at least 7, probably more like 8. But on this game it only went to mid 5s at best, then crawled down. Why did this happen?

rubbish odds on this trade

Here’s why…

This game had very low liquidity (traded volume). It was borderline to even take the trade with volume that low (25-30k at KO i think). I usually want more like 50k minimum but 25k is often enough to just about scrape in with an entry trade and exit trade. Today’s game was a good example of why low liquidity is risky to traders.

The more money matched on an event, the more eyes on the event too. With such low liquidity, there were not many people watching or even interested in the result. It was a Finland game after all. So the draw price was decided by a long slow process of backs and lays for hours before the event, but when a goal is scored, you need lots of people involved and interested in betting on the match, to cause the odds to settle back at the ‘correct’ price, or at a price which reflects the probabilities. In this game, clearly there were not enough people involved, but that doesn’t fully explain why the odds stayed LOW instead of HIGH. The reason for this, I suspect anyway, is because this game was a classic LTD. The stats were good enough (only just) for LTD traders, and so there were probably a lot of people laying the draw in the game. But when the goal was scored, they all want out, just like I did (and you Shane, Alistair and a few others I am sure!) To get out of a LTD we have to BACK the draw. More backers than layers forces the price down, unless there are just as many people looking to lay the draw, and there obviously weren’t many of those in today’s game. There would have been very few, if any, bookies involved in the market, and very few gamblers too. Therefore I think this is a good example of a situation where TRADERS dominated the market, and it’s a good reminder for us that we all must thank the gamblers out there for making markets stable for us most of the time even though they didn’t today! I love gamblers. They make the betting exchanges work, and they make Betfair trading possible!

I tried to exit during HT (I was waiting for a second goal until then). But I had to take a LOSS to get my trade closed and I wasn’t doing that, not in a hurry anyway. So I waited until 5 minutes into the second half and then there was enough volume for me to exit my trade and get a pathetic amount of green considering it was a perfectly successful trade!

A word of caution… if people do as I did, and wait for a second goal, that’s up to them. But if you do it on a game with low liquidity like this one, it is very risky. Even more risky than normal. If a goal had been scored by the away team to level the match, the odds could have plummeted a long way below our stop loss level, especially in this game as there were so few people involved. The traders who would have wanted to trade out at 1-1 would have forced the market down and down to a ridiculously low level and we could have faced a much bigger loss than I would normally expect to see in a situation like that.

Hope that helps, and serves as a warning for the future for those who trade low liquidity games!

I was busy hedging the possibility of getting stung on this game, with a bit of trading on the racing markets at Newbury today! I haven’t dabbled with horses for a little while now as I have been too busy, but it was a good day on baby stakes just to remind myself how it’s done!

racing trading on betfair

Just a little GG trade while I waited (and hoped) the Finland footie market would find its way to sensible odds! It didn’t, so a few trades helped top up what that failed to win!