Fenerbahce v Kayserispor – If it’s 0-0 at 25-30 minutes I will be laying the draw. No other trades today
Plenty of tempters, the best of which is Lille v Sochaux, but I am on bank preservation duty at the moment, so if I can find one single reason to skip a trade, I am skipping them, and several today are like that
Well I was out all day and no time to trade this evening so won’t be doing any more stats. A quick check back looks like Napoli was a tough one but depending on what the odds were around 64 mins, it should have been a winner even though the underdog played well and scored first. Villareal was also a winner, typically as I wasn’t home in time to trade that, ho hum.
Hi all. Yesterday was a good pick, ending 4-0 or 5-0 I can’t remember now, I was out after the second goal. Unfortunately I only staked half stakes due to the high price, intending on adding the other £100 around 4 if still 0-0, fat chance! I greened £98 of a £100 lay, so nice numbers but wish they had been bigger. Well after my huge mistake the other day I am dropping stakes and carrying on. Typical me really, finally have a good system sussed and working reliably for long while, then I get distracted by friends and phone calls, and cooking curry and ……… and bang goes £1200 …
Well, yesterday’s Hull game didn’t go according to what the stats suggested, which happens. The real problem is that some complete idiot got called away and completely forgot to trade out. So a top plays bottom game ends 0-0, bloody typical, because i accidentally left it to a full bet, £1200 down the pan. AAAGH On to today: Leverkusen v Hoffenheim – Nearly ignored this due to form concerns, but the average goal stats of both teams just seem to fit nicely so I will trade this one, carefully though. Kaiserslautern v Paderborn – this is a very near tempter, but the low conceding rate of Paderborn has caused me …
Hull v Bristol City – Stats look good here. A bit pricey at 4.8 but I am going ahead. Braga is a close call but leaving it as they often score goals very late and I have lost a lot of money on Braga games over the years. Nothing else of interest today
Well as expected I was unable to trade yesterday but my iPhone alerted me to the early Luton goal so hopefully some people made a good profit even if I didnt.
Luton v Ebbsfleet @ 1945hrs – I like the stats on this one. A bit nervy towards the end of the season when low teams just sit in front of their own goal to try to scrape a point for a draw, but I can’t see them holding back Luton from scoring. I am considering doing some testing on a more time based system, as I feel the stats strongly suggest Luton will score somewhere between 25 and 45 minutes. Would be interested to see how a system like that worked out, in for the period when a goal expected and out the rest of the time. Would miss a …
No trades today. Anderlecht looked a slight tempter but home form is nowhere near strong enough so its another day off
Well a nasty day, but well recovered in the end. Just bad luck really, Olympiakos played superb and should have scored around 10 goals, but none went in until near trade out point when Panathin scored one. I decided to wait 5 minutes and take a smaller loss on the LTD trade. I also threw £50 back bet at 10-1 on the home team who then scored one as they had looked like doing for ages. Overall a £104 loss, which is great compared to the £500 loss I was getting ready to swallow 🙂
Wasn’t able to post an update but with Man City 2 goals up against Chelsea, I laid CIty at 1.09. Greened up a bit after Chelsea’s goal but keeping most profit on another goal as I suspect Chelsea may get another here.
Well it ended 0-3! On well, made sense, just one of those we have to swallow sometimes.
Well Udinese has made it 3-0! Noting the stats, and how late Parma usually score, I still have faith that they will get at least a goal or two before the end, so given the price is now 1.03 on Udinese, I have laid them for a further £2000. A total risk of £120, one goal should see me green again, fingers crossed but either way it makes sense so its a viable trade in my view.