Hi all. Yesterday was a good pick, ending 4-0 or 5-0 I can’t remember now, I was out after the second goal. Unfortunately I only staked half stakes due to the high price, intending on adding the other £100 around 4 if still 0-0, fat chance! I greened £98 of a £100 lay, so nice numbers but wish they had been bigger.
Well after my huge mistake the other day I am dropping stakes and carrying on. Typical me really, finally have a good system sussed and working reliably for long while, then I get distracted by friends and phone calls, and cooking curry and ……… and bang goes £1200 of hard work by forgetting to trade out or set a stop loss. Lesson learned, it’s not actually the first time, I am a disorganised plonker at the best of times, and just so damn busy that things slip through the net sometimes. Hopefully that is a lesson to many new traders out there, whilst its great fun and highly profitable this game, ONE simple oversight or lapse in memory and you can wipe yourself out. Thankfully I didn’t do that, but I certainly wiped out a good 6-12 months of work.
On to today then, here is a perfect example of a trade which I avoid like the plague, simply due to experience, not just stats as the stats are tempting……
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Erzgebirge Aue – Here are the stats.
On face value, that looks a good trade with the home team near top of league and scoring on average nearly 2 goals per game, conceding less than one. Likewise the dog scores around 1 and concedes nearly two. The last thing I check before trading, as in this case, is the previous games between the two teams. This is where alarm bells begin to ring….
As you can see, the last three games have ended as a draw, it doesn’t matter whether its 0-0 or 5-5, a draw is a draw and there are often several pairs of teams in each league which just seem to draw all the time, quite often due to being a derby game when two teams from nearby play each other like Everton and Liverpool, or Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid etcetera. These games, no matter HOW good the goal stats, are worth avoiding. I have learned this over the years, often there is no logic, you just find you lose a lot of trades on derby games and games where the teams often draw. Of course the clear quality of the teams may shine and the home team may blitz the dog, but they are still best left alone for me.
Celtic v Inverness – another BIG tempter, but leaving it alone for one very small reason. on 24/11/12 they played and Celtic lost at home to Inverness. The goal stats and especially thehome form look fantastic for trading a lay the draw, but I am leaving it.
Fiorentina V Torino – another tempter, and need some discipline to avoid this one. Everything looks fairly good, except the form of both teams looking at past recent games. I generally look at the home team form and expect to see them slaughtering any teams more than half way down the league, the haven’t done so, scraping by with a win of one more goal but conceding many even from low teams. That’s enough to walk away from that one.
1400hrs Napoli v Cagliari – This is a trade for me. Only just I might add, but the form looks good and Napoli score over 2 goals per game at home and have only failed to score once all season. 11 home wins, 4 draws and only one loss. Thats a good pick at 4.6 to lay the draw. Unfortunately I am probably going to be out so probably wont be able to trade it but will if I am home.
1800hrs – should be home by then so will be trading this one – Villareal v Santander. It looks awesome on stats, the only negative I could find is the scoring times. Looks like Villareal score very late, usually in last 15 minutes which is a worry when laying the draw as you are out of the trade by then. However, with their strength at home versus Santander’s weakness away from home, I will be trading it if I am in.
There are lots of evening games today, so I haven’t time to look through any more now. Will have a look when I get home later once I know what times I will be around to trade. Watch out for later updates which may or may not happen.
P.S. Whilst I think of it, if any of you want a specific topic of betfair trading covering here on the blog, whether its methods, software or whatever else, please drop me a line on the contact page. I will happily do an article or two if there is interest in a subject I have not covered, and this blog is only just getting started so there are loads of things I intend to write about when I find time. Good luck to all.