Saturday 21st September

I like the look of Sp Lisbon v Rio Ave. In particular I like the fact that they have both played the same team in the past few weeks (Arouca) – Sp Lisbon beat them 5-1, but Rio Ave lost 1-0 to them. This is a great piece of intelligence, a great way to compare two teams against the same barometer of ability. However, I am VERY reluctantly disregarding the trade and not trading it. Purely down to the lack of stats available on goal scoring for both teams, the stats that are there look bad for a trade, but I know they are pretty meaningless due to such little data making up the figures, but unfortunately when picking only the best trades, this is enough (only just) to ignore this and just leave it alone. I know I will wish later I traded it, but that’s not the way to be a trader, that’s a hindsighter and we are all experts at that!! So, moving on….

Brazil league 2 – Palmeiras v Recife is another tempter, but leaving that alone too as home team concede more than I would want.

2100hrs – Real Valladolid v Atletico Madrid – This is a very rare away favourite I will be trading, if I am able to anyway (i may be out later). I have looked long and hard at the stats here, and I think despite the favourite being away from home, they should still scored twice as many goals as the home team based on recent form. This wouldn’t be enough to trade it alone, but the price at well under 4 to lay the draw, well that makes it a definite trade for me. £200 Laid at 3.9. Will cancel or trade out if I can’t stay at home for the game.

Despite a few tempters (several not mentioned above) that is the only trade I can see today.

 


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