30th October – Football trade analysis

Well its a big coupon today so i spent a fair while on the stats and stuff. Here is a bit of a commentary:

Valencia v Almeria – It looked promising just based on goal stats, but combining the price as a factor (which it is, at 5.3!) its a no trade for me. Also they score later on, second half usually, so just too much risk for too little reward

Genk v KV – Home team is def a great favourite here. But again, always looking for reasons NOT to trade a game, i see the last 3 away games for KV were 1-0 winners, meaning they can score, and can prevent goals too. This is an easy way to justify dodging a potentially costly trade.

Lokeren v Lierse – A very good example of a seriously hard trading decision. I am not trading this, but it fits almost perfectly. However just ONE thing prevents me trading it. The last two meetings were both a draw. This is a very small detail in the grand scheme of things, but its enough to say no, certainly at the price of 5.1. Maybe if it was 4..3 ish, I would have a go.

Tottenham v Hull – Well after their result on Sunday with Spurs getting a ridiculous penalty to fluke win the game in which Hull were bloody excellent, I would only trade this one way normally, and that is to BACK the draw, not lay it! This is actually an in play trading method I used to use, if you are looking at stats for a lay the draw trade and you see a ridiculously overpriced game like this one (5.3 for the draw, really?!), you can use the time you invested to net some green out of backing the draw til half time, or til you see the game hotting up maybe in second half, often making a tidy sum. But in this case, it is a cup game, and I just don’t trade cup games point blank. So again a no trade 🙂

AC Milan v Lazio – yet more trading discipline needed here. Again on the face of it, things look pretty good. Milan usually win at home, Lazio usually win away. Milan score well at home and concede few, Pazio score few and concede a LOT (2.5 per game!). But there is a but. Milan score late, and thats enough to say no here. 38% of their goals are scored in the last 15 minutes, which is great to win games and keep good positions in the league, but its crap for us traders as you have to be out of the trade well before then. I do fancy Milan to win well here, but can’t justify risking money on it.

Cagliari v Bologna – Another just like Milan. 40% of goals scored in last 15. I fancy them to win this easily, but fancying and trading are two very different things.

So, after much thought, and what looked like a very promising coupon, I am trading no games today.  Ho hum, no losses assured then!

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