Well the Champions League final certainly is a tempter for an away LTD. There’s no stats basis for a trade, I haven’t even looked, I just find myself always tempted to LTD when Barca play and never seem to lose! This is about the tallest order they have had for a long time though so I am trying to keep my idea in check for now. I am sure there will be some good in play opportunities however, and with the massive volume on the match odds market I am sure there is a chunk of money to be made scalping, bookmaking etc.
Lay the draw trades are thin on the ground this time of year and I always exercise extreme caution when picking them, it’s too easy to hand back money at the end of the seasons with many inconsistent team selections and playing styles which don’t tally up with the season’s statistical averages etcetera. I know someone who stops all LTD trading a week before the end of the english premier league just for that reason.
A few other comments on what may interest me today, other than horse racing of course:
Helsingborgs – one of those leagues where I am really nervous about trading. Looking at the stats, this looks a good home win. The trouble is there is a real lack of quality in the teams, especially strikers in these small country leagues. To a person who needs a good goal scoring performance (like me) it is a bit dodgy, but I may be tempted nearer the time or may wait for a 0-0 scoreline at 30 mins in (stats based), or may just leave it altogether. Just sharing my thoughts as people have asked me to do this rather than just noting the ones I am definitely trading.
TPS v VIFK (Finland) – I looked at this as a LTD to begin with, and after seeing stats I see its a massively overpriced game. I think backing the draw would be a better idea here! I may back draw for 15 minutes or so, at KO and/or after HT if 0-0.
Valarenga – lay under 2.5 at HT if 0-0. Same approach with Helsingborg and Sandefjord