1-2 trades today

I am working busily on some horse racing strategies as I am getting sick of people asking me how I trade horses! Much of what I do is intuitive or learned over many years and therefore isn’t something I can explain in five minutes, but I am working on breaking it all down into definable strategies with decision factors and timings etcetera all laid out in bullet fashion. It will take a while longer I suspect, but it could be just what many of you are looking for so make sure you are signed up to the email form (right hand side) for updates, or just hit the LIKE button on the facebook box, I will make sure the Facebook page is updated the minute I have any of it published here on the site.

Today……

Barnsley v Crewe – I am laying the draw here.

Forest Green v Guiseley. Interesting one this. I shortlisted it based on odds, for a possible LTD. But when I saw the stats, it was clearly a no trade for LTD, but it was so awful that it actually looks like one of those where I may take the opposite angle, as the value in those odds speaks for itself next to the stats! Here is a pic….

Stats

Betfair Trading Stats

Guiseley won their last away game, beating the team in position 8 in the league, and not conceding to them (more importantly, for avoiding a losing LTD). Both teams concede less than 1 goal per game. This screams 0-0 til very late, which is our nemesis as LTD traders. I am not decided on how to approach it yet. I have 4 options:

  1. Lay Forest Green. Laying a ton at 1.46 is a liability of £46. So that’s the total risk and could well be lost if they score early which they could. But the probabilities suggest a late goal, if any. Those odds could quickly climb to 2, especially if its a dull game in the first half.

2. Back Guiseley at 8.6 – lower risk, but harder to get a good green up unless they go ahead, which would be a lovely trade if it happened of course! But their stats don’t show they are going to score, so we are best to base the trade on a 0-0.

3. WAIT – hope Guiseley go ahead, and then back the draw. This is an old method of mine and does often work very nicely, as the draw price will drop heavily and quickly if the away team go ahead, with the market expecting Forest Green to get one back and the game end in a draw. The exit comes after either next goal, or 70 mins.

4. Back 0-0 for a set period. I would probably think 30 minutes max, some people would go bigger stakes and just 10-15 mins.

I am not decided yet, but I will be doing one of the above so I thought I would just share my thinking! I suspect I will probably back either the draw or 0-0 for 10-15 minutes, especially if I can find a live stream of the game. Then exit hopefully a greened trade, and wait and hope for a goal from the dog to back the draw for some more green. Of course as with all trading, the unexpected can happen, so preparing for that eventuality is by far the most important point of all. But the stats suggest it is likely this market is well over backed (Forest) and the opportunity for a value bet should never be ignored!

 

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