Friday 18th

Schalke tempted me but the goal stats are just not diverse enough, stats suggest what the odds don’t suggest, that it could be a closer game than I expect it will be, so leaving it alone.

Vitesse – even more of a tempter, and much harder to ignore but I am forcing myself to ignore it. The Dutch games get a tad more harsh treatment from me as I have learned the hard way that no matter how strong these games look, they can (and often do) go very much the other way or just be dead dull affairs. Given the recent scores of both teams, I don’t think they are as far apart as the goal stats suggest, so another one to leave.

Sparta Rotterdam – hmmm, tricky one. I was dead set on going for this, but then saw the odds at 5.4. I expect the game will prove that the price isn’t unreasonable, but I can’t afford to take on trades at that price unless I would stake my wife on the result, and again being a Dutch game (unfortunately not a Dutch wife, nor Swedish :D) I am just ruling it out. But the unbeaten home form and lovely run of high scoring games, it’s a tough one that. If it were 5.1 I would probably be on it, very close call. One of those I may get on if the odds drop quickly to around 4.5, but then experience has taught me generally that games I am not involved in from the kick off, are best avoided as the reward v risk ration drops against a trader very quickly once a game is in play, mainly because the movement in odds are  then a very accurate reflection of what punters think of the game, and that’s not to be ignored. Not sure but will probably just leave it altogether.

Go Ahead Eagles – another shortlisted but ruled out game.

Almere City v Breda – Nearly an away LTD. Only the ridiculous price prevents it being a trade.

Ha, I now realise that means a no trading day. I could have just said no trades, but some have asked for my reasons on some of these so there ya go. Don’t say ‘you don’t get owt for nowt’ in this world. 🙂

 


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