Today’s betfair trading shortlist

Valencia – Very close call, especially at such a lovely cheap price. I am very tempted, but resisting the urge purely as I feel its one of those that could easily go 70-80 minutes before goals come, and thats a losing trade to us if it happens. It probably wont, but stats say its a very real possibility so i am leaving it alone.

Man Utd – overpriced, no chance I will touch that. they are one of the most overrated teams on earth in my view, which does admittedly colour my judgement.

Leyton Orient – overpriced

Coventry v Oldham – stats suggest Oldham play their away games simply to look for a 0-0, i.e. park the bus in front of goal and try not to lose. I hate teams doing that, apart from it making a crap game to watch, it’s also crap for lay the draw trades. Having said that, Coventry do the opposite, and score a huge amount of goals per game on average. They are unbeaten at home, despite having 3 goals scored against them, they scored 4. So their approach seems to be the opposite, just keep banging goals in! This presents a slight risk that Oldham could go ahead, but thats unlikely as they dont seem to like scoring goals, just saving them! So all in all, mainly given the price, I decided to go for this one. It’s one of those that could have a surprise result, but most surprising to me would be 0-0 til 70 minutes, a trader’s enemy! So I am on it. Hoping it will be 2 or 3 nil by HT for a full win. It’s definitely one of those rare games that look to have a good chance of doing that anyway. I like this one the more I look at it, especially the price. So I am on it at the lay offered odds, not risking missing out by queuing on the back side. Stats are here

Chelsea – usually best to avoid unsettled teams who have had manager recently sacked. However I would have a go at this because Sunderland concede goals for fun. But the insane price is enough to avoid this one. All those idiot fans really do push prices places they should never go! Not saying Chelsea wont win, just dont think its anything like as likely as the implied probability of those insane odds!

Burnley – looking at recent form of both teams, this looks ripe for the underdog to take a big scalp here, as they have before (Birmingham). Far too many shock results on both team’s form, all of which can hurt a trade, so definitely one to leave alone.

Just for a bit of fun….. Check out Rangers away stats – What a JOKE! Rangers are priced as if they are Barcelona playing at home! Falkirk is only two places lower in the leage FFS, and they have respectable stats, and notice they only concede 0.29 goals per game!? WTF?! This has BACK the draw for 40 minutes written all over it! Or lay Rangers at 1.5! I am not doing that, i am too busy to monitor it, but i used to do stuff like that all the time to great effect. You MUST remember that Rangers could easily run out and bang in 3 goals before HT, so doing this type of trade is about value and taking on the odds. You have to be able to stomach a full loss on it. But if you did it EVERY TIME you see value like this, over the long term its a superb trading approach. You need to be tuned in both to betfair and to football better than I am currently, hence me not doing it myself. But those stats really do have 0-0 stamped all over them, 0-0 at HT for sure. Whether that happens or not is down to the gods. Damn, I have just noticed the odds on 0-0 correct score are 22! Bugger it, I am going to have a little 10-20 minute dabble on it, one goal and its a dead loss, so small stakes only, but at those odds, even small stakes could net some decent green. Come to think of it, laying Rangers may be the better bet, since they are so low priced and of course your trade wouldn’t die with a goal from either team, and of course Falkirk do score 1.7 goals per game, so have every chance of knocking one in, which would make a nice green trade. Hmm. not sure yet, but will doing one of those

There ya go. Busy coupon, and one LTD trade from it in the end. This demonstrates my newer approach. I used to lay the draw on any game where strong home team is playing a weaker team. And it can be profitable dont get me wrong, but these days I look for ANY reason NOT to trade something on the shortlist. As you can see above, plenty of potential trades today, but for one reason or another, I can see a weakness and would rather keep my money in my pocket unless I can’t find a reason to.

 

 

 

 

 


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