One half of my exit secured

Well as expected Spurs didn’t manage a win yesterday against Liverpool, I was rooting for Liverpool of course and they could have done it. But a draw is good, helping Leicester stay dominant at the top.

Today Leicester play a tricky Southampton side, a good strong defence there. I do still expect Leicester to win, in fact the odds on the draw are tempting me to lay the draw for that game. More importantly, if Leicester win this game, I suspect (at a guess) their odds to win the league will come in around 20 ticks to around 1.4 or perhaps 1.35. It all depends on how convincingly they beat Southampton, if they do beat them.

I am not sure how quickly the 2015/2016 winners market will be affected, but often in football leagues there is a nice delay between the odds on individual games and the overriding whole winners market. In other words, if Leicester score a goal or two early on in their game today, you MIGHT find the 1.6 price sticks around a fair while on the league winners market. If that happens, it’s a great way to bank some low risk green. I have done this quite a few times on other sports like Golf, Rugby etc. Everyone focusses on the exact market for the event in play, but it often takes a while for punters to show the change of situation on the overall winners market. I will be keeping an eye on it, especially if Leicester go ahead strongly.

Either way, my trade on Leicester will close out after their game today, hopefully with a win. I backed at 33-1 and below, and will exit hopefully around 1.4. That’s a great trade, and I only wish I put proper money on it, like a grand or two. That would have been a very nice holiday paid for thanks to punters falling for brand names in football like they do in supermarkets! COME ON LEICESTER!


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