Footie begins!

Well it’s early days and stats won’t be too useful for a little while yet, but great to see some league games starting again, it’s felt like a long wait this year for some reason. The Olympics should help avoid some of the frustration for a while longer, although there are still going to be trades to be had.

An interesting one, and a good reason to use my stats instructions as explained in my LTD book, is PSV v AZ today. I know of some people who lay the draw in any football match with an odds on favourite. I think this is suicide, even though some people say this approach does ok in some football seaons/leagues, and here is an example of why….

psv

PSV are priced heavily odds on at 1.45-1.49. That looks a stonker as far as the odds are concerned, and of course they could and may well win easily. But….. the stats show AZ have had a huge run of away form and therefore I actually see this as a better trade to BACK the draw than to lay it! In the old days when I dabbled with other trades I would have probably backed the draw here at the lovely price of 5.2, and trade out after 15-30 minutes if no goals for a green, with a risk of a home goal to ruin the trade, but also a good statistical chance of the away team scoring for a nice windfall. I don’t do stuff like that until much further into the season when I have some knowledge and more reliable stats, and I won’t be doing this one, but just looking at that picture, I don’t see a wise LTD there even though it might come off. As the trading saying goes…. “even a broken clock is right twice a day”. This principle is why so many people lose a lot of money on systems which work some of the time, but only show themselves up for the failures that they are, after a long period of sustained trading.

here is a much nicer option, and what looks like a decent priced trade to me….

Brazil – Fluminense v America MG …

brazilbrazilFor the cautious traders or those short of funds, it might even be one to wait for 30 minutes or half time  to pass before entering if still 0-0. The goal stats look good enough, the form is good enough on both sides (only just) and the price in particular is nice at a little over 4 which is cheap for a decent LTD these days.


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