Monday 15th August

Varnamo v Angelholms – A nice priced trade at 4 to LTD. 6th plays bottom. Good form on both sides and good goal stats. Home team isn’t as prolific at scoring as I would ideally like, but they score just about enough considering the away team concede a lot of goals.

Just out of interest, have a look at stats on this game – http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2016/08/15/denmark/superliga/aalborg-bk/esbjerg-fb/2238299/head2head/ – Another 6th plays bottom, and a much higher price to LTD, so it should be better right?! Nope. Look at the form of both teams, and last time they played with home team at home, the home team lost! This is why stats are so crucial, reading anything into the odds is a recipe for disaster, gamblers don’t do stats very often, so the market prices are an indication of feelings, not probabilities. A handy reminder for anyone who doesn’t check stats!

HJK v KUPS – This is higher priced, but looks a good one. I will either trade from before KO or at HT, those are the two most efficient entries in my view. http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2016/08/15/finland/veikkausliiga/helsingin-jalkapallokubi/kuopion-palloseuraoy/2188056/head2head/


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