Update

Well today went well. But I just thought I would give a few comments on why being selective is my chosen approach these days, and why in particular I was extra choosy today.

Macclesfield – 3-1 – Obviously this was a green trade, and following my usual strategy of waiting for a second goal if the first comes early enough, that increased the green significantly making it a much more useful trade. In this case the reason I did it was because all of the recent home games bar one (v Lincoln City) Macclesfield have scored at least 2 goals.

Carlisle  – while it was cheap, that isn’t enough reason to trade on its own. In this case, the stats show in their last 3 home games, they have only scored one goal per game, and their last 2 home games ended 1-1. How useful stats are considering today’s game ended 1-1 and would have been a losing trade. Stats stats stats 🙂

Screen Shot 2016-09-03 at 20.15.31

Bolton – Again, there is a good reason why I said I would wait 20-30 minutes and/or watch some of the game if I could ideally. Here is what I was looking at when i made that decision..

Screen Shot 2016-09-03 at 20.06.22It was all there for the taking. Southend score 80% of their goals in the first 30 minutes, so that was the danger time. And as the result showed, that was indeed the danger again today, they scored in that period, but most importantly, they scored first which is often the most costly type of losing trade.

ebooksmallFor those who have read my new ‘Laying the Draw eBook’ you will understand in great detail why I look at these things and why I stick to my guts when something concerns me in the stats. For those who haven’t read it, why not? 😀 – If you want to know my LTD trading approach inside out, check it out here.


Comments

Update — 2 Comments

  1. Wow, i followed your advice with macclesfield but ended up trading Carlisle and losing a bit… Next time I will stick to the match selection strategy you explain in LTD book.

  2. Ha ha, thanks Daniele. So you spent money on a system, and decided not to follow it? I am sure you get the point, firm but fair 😀
    Yes thankfully Carlisle was a cheap trade which at least means you couldn’t lose as much as you might have done otherwise, but yes discipline is the real bank saver in the long term. I never look for a trade, I look for reasons not to trade, and only take a trade if nothing tells me to avoid it. It took many thousands of pounds and years of dabbling before I realised this, hopefully you don’t need to copy me in doing the same!!
    Macclesfield sure was a textbook trade. They don’t all go as accurately in line with stats, but today was certainly a day for proving the point about stats being the only real guideline worth following!
    Best of luck with your future trades

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