Well as expected yesterday’s Brazil game wasn’t a stonker, but it was a winner with a goal just before the HT whistle. This is why I felt the odds were high up around 4.5, I would have rated it worthy of around 4.2 max.
Today is similar, with only one game on my shortlist and stats found (eventually) using Soccerstats.com which is my backup stats site but it has changed a lot in recent years and I hate the interface now, so much harder to get a nice H2H display like Soccerway.com, which is my favourite stats site.
Corinthians v Sport Recife – This is almost identical, although I think it’s a stronger trade than last night’s game. They score well, around 1.8 goals per game on average at home, the away team are pretty dismal away from home but can keep a tight defence sometimes hence my slight caution. I fancy a 2-0 or 2-1 result here, with a goal from the home team in the first 30 minutes hopefully for an easy trade. If I can find a stream I might hold out for a second goal if they do go ahead early, but i they go ahead between 30 minutes and HT I will be out with my green at 1-0.
As I have been typing this the lay the draw odds have dropped from 4.5 to 4.4, which is just about acceptable. I would prefer 4.2 if I could get it so I may watch it in case it’s on the way in, but 4.5 is my max for this trade.