Friday 9 September

Well yesterday’s Brazil game was a bit of a stonker in the end finishing up 3-0 to the home team. It also had a rare bit of luck for some of you, or at least one of you anyway! It’s nice when this happens, the first goal took 46 minutes to be scored but within another minute it was 2-0. Whenever trading out after a goal (from home or away team), I always allow at least 60 seconds for the market to settle as you can sometimes lose quite a few ticks from the wild prices jumping around after the game unsuspends after a goal. In this case, you would been on the lucky side of a suspension as the second goal should have been scored before you exited, if you were exiting and greening up immediately after the first goal. So that should have seen green figures doubled or thereabouts, nice 🙂

I have been burned before where this happened but it was an equalising goal, but its definitely worth the one minute wait over the long term in my experience. On to today then…

Schalke v Bayern – limited stats, but the little there are suggests a good 3-0 or 4-0 away win for Bayern here. However the price is 6, which is far too high for a normal LTD. I may trade it with my stop loss moving from 2 to 3, again half the odds of entry, making it the same amount of risk as a normal trade, except that Bayern need to score before HT really for a good win. I think they will, so may well trade this one, but I may opt to watch the first 5 minutes of the game first, just to check it looks as good as I would expect.

Interesting one this. Midtjtlland v Esbjerg – Those stats are NOT in line with the draw price of 4.6. In fact it is so far out of whack I think this is a value to BACK the draw. Always small stakes with these types of bets, as they could of course go ahead early and win the game strongly. But their last home game they drew 2-2 with a team lower in ranks than this opponent. Also, Esbjerg recently played that same opponent, and drew 1-1 with them also. This smells like a back the draw to me and I would probably hold on if the home team went ahead even 2-0 ahead, as it could well be close later on in the game. therefore the stake has to be a sum I am happy to lose and so it must be small enough not to mess with the LTD results for the day.

Breda v Jong PSV looks similar to above, but I won’t be doing two in one day so I will miss this one.

Rostov v Kryliya Sovetov – This is one I would just ignore usually, as it’s not a great trade based on stats alone. But the odds of the draw below 3.5 makes it extremely tempting. Almost worth a go on a 60-40 chance, and I think there is around that at minimum favouring a 1-0 lead from the home team. Some days I would miss this out, some days I would be tempted, very very borderline.

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