Saturday 17 September

Big shortlist today but I am still approaching the coupon with a lot of caution. Munchen Gladbach, Everton, there are many similar picks which I would be interested in later in the season but I am writing these off for now, and I may trade half stakes for another week or two, maybe even a month, however long it takes to get a decent amount of home and away form respectively for these games which hit the shortlist.

Newcastle v Wolves – This is one of those which looks too good (only just) to ignore, but the recent away win of Wolves (3-1) against a very respectable team is a slight concern. It does look like a 2 or 3 goal win for Newcastle though, unless that odd result wasn’t an odd result after all. So it’s a half stakes LTD for me here.

Braunschweig v Sandhausen – OK I am a bit stumped here. The stats and recent game form of this match look excellent for a lay the draw trade, yet the odds look WAY out of whack. After looking through the stats I would have expected this to be priced nearer to 5, but it isn’t even near 4, it’s currently around 3.7. I have looked for team info in case something major has hit the news but being Germany League 2 there isn’t much news around, at least not that I can understand! So, I am going to go with the stats here and given the cheap price I am giving it a full stake LTD. Maybe the game will tell me why it’s priced so low, it could just be lack of money in the market as it is very low at the moment. I may regret it if I can’t get out but German games usually get some volume close to kick off so hopefully this one will too. Based purely on the stats, I would rate this as a 2-0 or 3-0 all day long. Time will tell!


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