Friday 30 September

Not much on today’s card after all.

Everton v Crystal Palace – I can see Palace being the Leicester of this year, no I don’t think they will win the league, but I think they could shock people with how well they could do. This is just commentary, not relevant to trading directly. This game looks a cagey affair but they both score late goals, so while it looks like an “avoid” for a bog standard LTD, I might be interested in laying the draw if it gets to half time without any goals being scored. That way, either team scoring would present a profitable trade.

Sociedad v Betis – Another one where I think goals will be scored but definitely not a normal KO LTD no matter how cheap the price is. I will need to watch some of this but if the game gets to 30 minutes and is still 0-0. I may be laying the draw as close to 3 as possible. I would expect the odds to be around 3.2 max by then, so might just watch 5-10 minutes of the game at that point and make a decision then. As a half price trade I could be interested if it’s a busy game. They both can’t keep a clean sheet so someone will score I think, and again if entering around 3 the odds have to rise above that if someone scores.

The best standard LTD trade today looks like Oostende v Sint-Truden. The volume is very low though so I am not sure how much money will be in that market by KO time. However it is not good enough to take from KO anyway. See stats below. Oostende look to be on fairly decent form and should win this one, but they score late so if I get to see some of the game I will make a decision between:

a) Trading it from half time

b) Trading it from draw odds of 2 as a full bet

Here are the stats on this one, not a busy day, and all of these look easily rejected if only looking for the big nailed on trades. Some intuition and game reading needed today if LTD trades are going to bring any green.

screen-shot-2016-09-30-at-10-53-06

 


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *