Update

Valencia v Madrid – 0-0 @ HT. I am laying Under2.5 goals for half stake now, and half stake at 60 minutes if still no goals by then. Will partially green after 1 goal, maybe just to remove any potential loss, or may wait for second depending on the game.


Comments

Update — 13 Comments

    • That doesn’t look a bad bet at all, but the price is still a bit high for me to take this. I tend to wait for a VERY VERY rare event, in this case that would be 0-2 to Utrecht so I could lay them shorter than evens. I have no doubt Ajax will score (of course they might not) but for me the risk reward balance isn’t quite good enough at only 0-1. Good luck whatever you decide

  1. Thanks Tim – not sure how my luck will hold but I am also now going LTD in the Juve match. Only small stakes as I don’t want to burn all my profits if it goes belly up!

    • Ha ha, was just about to say I wish you luck, but I saw the goal! To be honest I wouldn’t have taken that. It’s one of those where I would fully expect you to win some money, but the stats suggest it was more risky than I would like. One goal per game away from home, not quite goalsy enough for me but congrats for you, very nice green you made there 🙂
      On busy days like this, at your level of RvR for today, you can find so many trades it can be hard to manage them all so I prefer to tighten up and wait for the really strong and low risk opportunities, but I have often done exactly as you have today and it is perfectly valid to take these games at 1 goal difference, you just have to stick with it for the long term as with any approach. If you chop and change, you can get burned when an unlucky day hits you hard, but if you are staking in accordance with your balance and have plenty of room for recovery to ride out the bad days, you can do some real damage on days like this. Man U is another one I am avoiding, even though many traders will be looking at that game with interest. I personally never look at Manure with interest. 😀

  2. Ah! I like that pun! I was actually tempted to take a trade on Manure but I will leave it alone now. Very much appreciate your all your input above about RvR and the risky trades.

  3. you’re welcome James, and don’t even take a trade because I mention it, or avoid one because I am avoiding it! Your balance is yours so your judgements will be the decider of that, and there are plenty of good trades that I won’t take for example Turkish games, I just avoid them from past experience but I know people who trade them and do well, there is no right and wrong, only YOUR right and wrong! Stick to those, if it isn’t working, change them, rinse and repeat. Sounds like you’re doing well so far there!

  4. Thanks – so far so good today. Nearly came a cropper in a Turkish game yesterday. I did a LTD in the Besiktas game when it was 0-0 at HT. Closed out in the 80th minute when it looked like no goal was coming and the red was getting uncomfortable. I then layed the draw again in the 89th minute for virtually no risk and hey presto Besiktas scored in the dying seconds!

  5. In that case, buy ten lottery tickets!!
    I have been there many a time in the past, it’s not a good place to be. Don’t want to pee on the bonfire or anything, I know you will be on top of the world with a string of great trades, but when three like that go wrong, that can be a costly bill to your trading balance, so you need to be fully prepared for that loss and able to carry on regardless.
    One of the biggest tips I can give you after many years of this is…. if you are even slightly out of breath, uncomfortable, nervous or anything like that when placing a trade, DO NOT place it! Lower your stakes until you have no nerves, if that’s only £2 per trade, then so bet it, you must get used to trading comfortably and not with fears of losses, and joy when they come good, that will lead to boom and bust and when the bust comes, you may not be prepared and it can finish you, mentally if not financially 🙂
    You should never “need” a trade, you should only want to take one because you can’t see a reason not to. If you feel you “need” a goal in a game, you are in way too long!
    Having said all that, I am sure your bank is doing great after today!

  6. Very good point – the bank is looking greener today but I think I will need to be more selective on my trades from now on just so that I don’t let profits take a battering after a losing run of these riskier trades – which I am sure will happen sooner or later.

    • yes, unless you’re an old friend of mine (the luckiest person I have ever known, and proud to boast about it constantly!!) you will certainly hit a bad run, and any trading must be able to sustain at least THREE of those really. Remember, when you get it right for months on end, you can ramp your bank to kingdom come, but until then, you can only hurt yourself beyond repair! Softly Softly catchy monkey 🙂

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