Tuesday 4th October

Not LTD trades today. Tranmere was a close (ish) call but there are a few reasons to avoid it, even though the price is very nice so I was tempted and on another day I would probably go for it. I expect to be out later today which is also part of the reason for rejecting it.


Comments

Tuesday 4th October — 3 Comments

  1. What a nails down to the wick match AC MILAN v SASSUOLO LTD turned out to be . Unfancied away team 3-1 up 15-20 mins left . Did I trade out like any normal person would ? NO . Decided to put myself through the mill and watch Milan come back to 3-3 with 2 quick goals and then go ahead 4-3 and coast to the end to win my trade . I’m not sure I will ever learn . If I had any hair it would have took off during those 15 mins . Ho Hum .

    • I hear you Andy I really do. If it helps at all (which it won’t today, but maybe tomorrow ;)) WE HAVE ALL DONE THIS. So don’t beat yourself up over it, but DO learn from it. The lesson is (and it took about a hundred of those for me to learn!)….

      A MODERATE GREEN IN THE BANK IS FAR BETTER THAN A BIGGER GREEN WHICH MIGHT NOT BE BANKED 🙂

      This is the thin line between trading and gambling, and proves how easily those lines can blur, and it does affect every single one of us. A trader takes a position based on evidence, and once that position goes green, he either cuts and runs, or at least takes half green and let half run. But I would say always bank it, regrets are horrible in trading and can send you backwards quickly, avoiding regrets is probably even more important than banking some green! Regrets make us angry at ourselves and the markets, and anger/revenge trading is the very VERY worst kind, and always leads to the worst reds in the long run! I lost £3000 once doing exactly the same, in fact did I say once? I meant twice! (blush) 😀
      One day we all learn, in my case it was when I had no funds left to trade, going on ten to twelve years ago now, and I had no choice but to sit out for months until I had a bank again. That bank was hard to get hold of, and my new approach was governed by the fact I had to pay it back (NOT advised!) and this caused me to bank every green going. Within a few months I read back on my notes (i kept a paper diary) and saw that i had found the magic secret, stop effing gambling for more green when you already have a green!
      If trading was easy there would be no markets and no money to be made, remember that one. We need it to be very difficult, so that most people lose, so that the few of us can win regularly! You are just paying your dues, but learn from it and it won’t have been in vain.
      Hope that helps!

  2. PS, I have just looked at the goal times in that game. Here is what you did wrong in my view….

    You LTD because you expect the home team to score and be strong in the game. You were unlucky that it went 1-1 but this happens to the best of us and the best teams. So when it went 2-1, personally I would have been looking to trade out, CERTAINLY at 3-1. The reason is this….. Your research suggested the probabilities favoured a strong home win with goals by Milan. What actually happened was the away team shocked everyone and scored twice, going ahead. At this point, well into the game, I would have been sitting back saying to myself “this is NOT what I was expecting”. When the unexpected happens (regardless of red or green figures on the sheet) I am looking to get OUT as soon as possible, and in this case when 2-1 or 3-1 came there were plenty of opportunities to escape what is effectively a “losing” trade (even if its green, losing because the stats didn’t play out ‘correctly’) without even losing money, perhaps making a nice chunk of green, on a ….. LOSING (stats wise) trade.

    Why on earth you would want to wait when one team is 2 goals ahead, on a LTD trade, is beyond me, but suggests you were transfixed by the big green on the win gamble, instead of the respectable trader’s green on the exit calculations.

    Final note – ALWAYS say to yourself (repeatedly during a trade) what is the WORST possible outcome here? If you don’t like the answer, get the hell out of there! Especially if you can do so with some green, you’re fortunate to even have that choice, not to take it is suicide!! 🙂

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