Sunday 16 October

Anderlecht v Lokoren – Liquidity is low, but if game its a half time LTD if game is level

St Ettiene v Dijon – Stats suggest this is a 60 minute LTD bet, rather than a KO trade, in an ideal world. But I have a feel St Etienne could score earlier here against such weak opponents. The goal stats could be better, but the price could be a LOT worse. It’s at 3.7 currently so due to that, this is a KO LTD for me, maybe  for half stakes, adding another half stake at HT if still 0-0. I may watch the opening 5-10 minutes on half stakes to decide whether to add the other half early or wait. It could well be a tight game until the last 20 minutes or so, but at such a cheap price I would rather be involved from the KO.

ADO Den Hag v Ajax – Torn between waiting for HT for a cheaper entry, or taking it from KO. Since the odds are 4.8 I think I will go with a KO trade, if it was over 5 I would wait for a better price in play.

Mainz v Darmstadt – Interesting one this. In many ways it could be argued that this shouldn’t be touched, unless level at 70-75 minutes. But despite no home wins for Mainz, they have scored heavily in the games they have lost, they just have a bad defensive record. But Darmstadt have a useless scoring record and a heavy conceding record. Therefore I think this is likely to be the day Mainz score a good home win which they badly need, they will not be here for a point, they will want all 3 for the win, so all things considered (including the cheap price) this is a KO LTD for me, perhaps adding to the trade at 75 minutes if it goes level again or is still level as the late scoring of Mainz is a huge statistic, I just don’t think they will leave it that late this time.

Sassuolo v Crotone – Another interesting one but I will leave this alone purely because of the trade above, I don’t take too many “interesting” ones in the same day. Home team don’t score a lot, but away team don’t either and they do concede goals. There is a chance of a HT or later LTD here but not sure yet.

Inter v Cagliari – Very high priced considering Inter aren’t scoring too well of late. However one to watch for a LTD in play after HT as I do think Inter need a win here to get themselves up where they feel they belong in the table.

Sion v Grasshopper – Aside from the fact someone really needs to help them name their football teams properly (:D) this isn’t a trade as such, but one to note as if its level at 75 minutes I may get involved either on the draw market or the U/O2.5 market.


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