Crikey, it doesn’t surprise as much as I am sure it surprised many punters and traders alike. There is a method which I know quite a few people follow based on stats provided by a certain website online. That site gave the stats as:
Chances of a Draw – 5%!!!!!
Over2.5 – 75%!!
I lost a bit but not much as the game was far too cagey to get involved earlier but I did genuinely expect a flurry of late goals, although it needed that one goal to break the 1 point each deadlock going on. That didn’t come and in light of that I am not surprised by the lack of goals, I am still convinced one goal would have led to 3+ goals once the game was everyones to win or lose. I shudder to think how much money was traded on the stats though as a simple “Unders Lay” or worse still a LTD.
Spanish game was back and forth and plenty of green in there. I missed a trade earlier in a swedish game, can’t even remember the teams names now, laying the away team which was 0-2 up around 30 minutes. I thought I placed it. Got on the phone to a friend for a while, heard the pings and score go to 2-2, grinned from ear to ear and boasted to him about how i just made a very handsome bit of green, opened BF and was shocked to see no green at all. Bet wasn’t matched. That’s the second time I have done that this week. Some improvement in my concentration is needed at the moment I think, can’t afford to let things pass by like that, its hard enough to find good sized greens sometimes let alone when you dont bother to make sure of your bets!
I am focussing on some horse racing trading stuff at the moment, documenting some methods and strategies for both IR and Pre Off stuff. It is proving hard to document it as I do a lot without really consciously thinking about it, but I will get there. Some great things can be done on horse markets so hopefully I will have something well worth reading soon.
Braunschweig was a dull game after all, but again that’s not what the probabilites favoured at all. The same stats site (which is pretty damn good usually, or always used to be when I bothered to look at it more often) had that game down at over 60% probability of O2.5, so more punters lost out there I think but the LTD was safe with the nicely timed goal to avoid any sweaty palms at 60+ minutes!