Monday 17 October

Eibar v Osasuna – Not great but if it’s 0-0 at 40 minutes I may have a LTD, hopefully after watching some of the game.

Braunschweig v Kaiserslautern – I am a bit baffled by the price here, the stats look more like a 5.5 LTD than a 3.8?!!?!?!?! I must be missing something. time to read the team sheets and news feeds i think. but before doing that, i will mention what i like about it and, if i can’t find any negatives, this looks a definite trade for me.

statsstatsObviously the form card looks excellent. The goal stats do as well. The home form is nothing but wins, away form draws or losses. If i could find a negative it would be the scoring times, an ideal entry might be around 30-40 minutes, or even HT for a very tight trader. But at 3.8 ish to LTD at KO, I just don’t see any reason not to be involved for a good 60-70 minutes, surely a green will come in that time!? Off to find out what I am missing here….. !!


Comments

Monday 17 October — 11 Comments

    • Yes well said, sorry I forgot to make any mention of that in my post. That is of course a negative. The game is not a local derby, but yes the past meetings don’t look great. However, looking at the league positions and recent games of either team, i think this season has very little relevance to those many past seasons where these two teams were much closer or I think the other way around in their table positions. I still think it’s a trade, but the 1-1 possibility is higher than usual for stats like these and therefore I will probably be greening up the first goal if/when it comes, unless I am watching and it’s electric, I actually have a feeling it will be but time will tell!

  1. The only thing that concerned me with this match is the H2H – Brownschweig have not beaten Kaiserlatern at home in their last 3 matches and have conceded in all of them. But that may well count for nothing in this match!

  2. Yep well said James, I suspect it won’t count for much, but it’s certainly valid information to be aware of and it could shape how I approach the trade, but it’s not enough to negate such strong form and stats between these teams and all the others they have played.

  3. Tim-From what Ive been able to glean Kaiserslauten are also likely to be missing a couple of key player which makes the odds even more baffling.Despite a feeling of ‘If it looks too good to be true…….’Im in from KO

  4. Yes I can’t find anything either, and as you say, it’s quite baffling really. It does make me slightly nervous, but we can only go by what is in front of us, and it all looks good enough to be involved here. I have had games like this before which showed me why the odds were low, i.e. a rubbish game. but more often than not I am just as baffled at the price as I watch 4 goals go in by HT, not saying that will happen here (maybe 2 could be reasonable to think possible)

  5. I am slightly curious Tim, you were put off the LTD in the M’Gladbach match on Saturday because of their H2H with Hamburger but you are confident with having a LTD on the Brownschweig match despite the shaky H2H. Can you tell me what the difference is between the 2 matches please?

    • Yes, good question James.
      It is a combination of various factors/reasons which, when combined together, made what looks like a similar type of game rejectable on one day but not on another, although there are some differences. The main decision factors were:

      Price – Today’s price seems even more cheap vs goal stats

      League positions – today’s has a lot more points and distance between the teams. It’s virtually a top v bottom, rather than a mid table v bottom. this is quite a big difference in my judgement calls, top teams usually knock the 5hit out of lower teams, even when they have a chequered history, but mid table teams struggle to score much more often.

      Goal stats – today’s game are much stronger than the Hamburger game. They were good, but todays is better. Any home favourite at top of table who scores 3 goals per game on average, that is a lot more than 2, more than 1 more than 2, if that makes any sense?! The global average of goals per game in any football match I think is around 2.5. So 2 goals per game is good, but 3 is a lot stronger than just one more goal, it puts them in the elite small percentage at the very top of scoring teams. This doesn’t mean anything as to how each indvidual game might play out, but it has a much stronger impact on my thinking and judgement. 3 stands out big time, 2 just looks good.

      Number of trades – This is perhaps the most important reason in all honest. and it could be the only reason I would need to discount a game one day, and take it the next. I have a sub-conscious feel for my overall risk factor per day. In effect, a day where I foresee a lot of trades, I will be much more selective, simply because I will be busier and have more money at stake, more things to manage, more potential losses if lady luck decided to give me a hard time that day, or whatever else. Today, there is very little, so I can manage this trade, find a live feed, focus on it closer, and as such I would be more likely to take a game on as a trade even like the Gladbach game on a day like this.

      Saturdays generally cause me to reject more trades, simply because I can only trade so many and there are usually 2-4 times as many opportunities to decide on.

      Hope that makes some kind of sense. It’s not a black and white thing by any means. But combining my lower workload, the top v bottom look of this game, and the great goal stats, they just about push this trade over my threshold while Gladbach was just (only just) under it. 🙂

    • Thanks, but remember what factors in my decision process is subjective to me, my experiences, my risk appetite, my targets and bank etc etc. So there is no right and wrong answer, only what works over the long term. Many other people disagree with some of my trades and I disagree with theirs, but they also profit nicely. It’s more a choice of how to trade, than about getting it right or wrong. But yes food for thought is the way I and any trader formed their own processes, by listening and pondering, then trying stuff out 🙂

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