Saturday 22 October

ebooksidebarclickGalatasaray v Trabz – Slightly tricky one this, tricky as far as deciding whether to trade or not I mean.

Plus points:

  • Fantastic green home form card
  • Lovely red away form card (league games only), with not one single goal scored in last 4 games, but 15 goals conceded in those 4 games!
  • Big distance between the teams on the table, a real mismatch
  • Gala unbeaten at home this season
  • Greek and Turkish games can have huge support at home games, especially for teams like Galatasaray
  • Away team hasn’t won a game at home, score no goals on average and concede 2.67!

Negatives:

  • It’s Turkey! anecdotal evidence this, but in my experience I never do too well with their games. There have been exceptions of course, but my guts don’t enjoy trading greek or turkish games generally.
  • Looking deeper into the games, Galatasaray often score late, often only managing one goal before HT, sometimes none.
  • Away team can hold the game to a draw for a good 60-70 minutes when they want to, and they will want to today! They will be all out for a 0-0 draw here, doubt they will manage it, but if they hold Gala to a 0-0 scoreline until 60-65 mins, thats a losing trade even though Gala may well then win 4-0 in the last 15 minutes.
  • Price is high considering these negatives.

So what to do?! I am honestly not sure. By my approach this means the decision is made. Leave it alone. I am 90% sure this means I will miss out on a great green lay the draw trade, but I am not here to avoid missing out (dangerous game that), I am here to stick my bank on games I have no doubts about, so I have to leave it alone. If it’s 0-0 at 60-65 minutes I may consider laying U2.5 for a low risk big green if the odds are below 1.25, unlikely but I would rather get involved when this unlikely scenario happens, than sit and watch the odds tumble in while no goals are scored and I am kicking myself. In short, I would rather miss out than lose on this game, and however sure I am that Galatasaray should nail their opponents to the wall, I have reasons to turn it down, so I am!

 

Sturm Graz v Mattersburg – this looks strong. I am only slightly nervous of the price. 5.1 seems a tad high. I would rate this around 4.5-4.7 based on the stats alone. For this reason I will LTD at 15 minutes in, which could backfire not only because a goal could be scored before then, but also because even if its 0-0 but the game is lively, the odds may not come down much, they could even rise although that’s rare. But for better or worse, 15 min LTD is my pick here. For the risk averse,  30 minutes might be a better entry hopefully closer to 4.2.

 

Sheffield Wednesday v QPR – nowhere near good enough for a LTD but they both score most goals in the last 15 minutes so this is a LTD at 75 mins if level score, or maybe a lay U2.5 if 0-0 and odds below 1.25, for one of my favourites, 4-1 risk reward trade.

 

Norwich v Preston – Looks good on home form, but away form is too strong (2-2 against Brighton is far too good to assume they will get beaten easily here, even though they probably will) No trade

 

Newcastle v Ipswich – nice home form, strong scoring stats, but strong defensive stats for Ipswich too which makes it a no trade.

 

Malmo FF v Ostersunds – Lovely strong stats, but the price is just too high. This leaves 3 options:

  1. Don’t touch it
  2. LTD from KO, exiting early around 50 minutes (guessing)
  3. LTD at HT if 0-0

I am going for option 1, simply because the other options leave a very short time in the trade as the odds will be falling quickly since they have so far to fall. On another day I would probably take this from KO or 5 minutes in after watching it, and keep watching it to decide if the first half looks like being the winning half for Malmo, but I am in and out today and wont have time to do this, so it’s a leave alone job for me.

 

Verona v Vercelli – Interesting stats and probably a winner but just far too expensive and there are some negatives. No trade.

 

That’s it for today

 

 


Comments

Saturday 22 October — 10 Comments

  1. Thanks Tim. I’m glad I read this post as I had Galatasaray down on my shortlist as a LTD but I think I will leave them alone now after what you have said! The bit about the away team having the ability to hold them to a draw for a good 60 -70 mins makes this a definite no no!

    • I do hate putting people off trades as it may well be a winner. It’s just one for me today, I am looking harder for reasons not to trade Greek and Turkish games simple due to my personal experience of those leagues over the years. This is subjective and very personal to me, and could easily miss out on many green trades for me, so go careful if you miss a trade based on anything I say, if you are happy to miss out on a big winner then avoid it, it could well be 3-0 at HT! I just would prefer to miss out on that, than take the risk of watching it tumble down to evens without a goal, and there is a chance of it, not a likelihood, just a chance 🙂

  2. One match that I have included on my list that I think looks quite good for a LTD, perhaps after 15 mins or so, is Dundee Utd v Dumbarton. What are your thoughts on this one Tim?

    • I am not keen on it. It looks like one of those which could easily be a strong winner but equally could be a nasty loser. I am not keen on the form, who they played and the results. Raith Rovers in particular. Also the only recent time they have met was in August at Dumbarton, and only one goal in the game. Enough to put me off, but again, I am being picky so go with your gut, it could easily be 5-0!

    • Ha ha, you’re right! Sorry, I had been looking at AEK stats and got them mixed up. As I avoid both generally, a team in either country go on my “Greece/Turkey” list. No offence intended to any turks or greeks. 😀

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