Update

Well Galatasaray was a great example of how stats are only useful “most” of the time, not ALL of it! I am glad I dodged that, what a messy trade that could have been. And this is so often the case in my trading experience with Greek and Turkish games. Maybe it’s pure coincidence but whenever I have traded them I often seemed to land on these ones, the ones which just go totally against the stats and probabilities, and massively against the gambling market and odds. Their stats come from real games, so it’s clear that I must just have a bad experience of them, but as today has proved there is a reason why I avoid them and that reason saved me a losing trade yet again there. This doesn’t make a lot of sense in pure maths, but in my experience it pays to listen to history, and each person’s history is different to others, hence why we all develop our own preferred trading approach.

Malmo was an unbelievable game. A team strongly sat at the top of the table plays a mediocre team struggling in the bottom half of the league, and lose 3-0 to them. That was a complete stats shocker too. Overall, not a great day for football trading but these days are all part of the routine, and I can be thankful I was as selective as I was, I could have had a very bad day if I had taken all the games which looked good at first glance.

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Ha, typical. You know when its one of those days. I just noticed it was 0-0 in the Lisbon v Tondela game at 73 minutes. I quickly fired in a little £100 lay at 1.04 – good risk reward I thought. I hit submit and realised I had been logged out, so i had to log into BF again, and in those few seconds it was suspended. Doh! That would have been some nice green for a few seconds work. Typical! That says it’s time for a beer here!

Tomorrow looks like it might have a few good games so until then…

 


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