Sunday 23 October

Eintracht Braunschweig v Furth – Laying Under 2.5 goals shortly, around 1.45. Pure risk reward trade, I think there should be plenty of goals  but will remove liability after first goal if one comes, and wait for second to green my original liability, rest left to full bet until FT.

Flamengo v Corinthians – Brazil is one of those countries I am a bit more careful with. This game looked like a trade to me at first, but on second thoughts I have decided to give it a miss. Away team scored heavy in last two games, I do expect a good home win based purely on goal stats, but the head to heads suggest this game has a tricky history between the teams so I will leave it.

Villareal v Las Palmas – There are some negatives if you look deep enough, but given the price of 4 and Villareal scoring most goals in the first half, that makes it a trade for me. I may exit earlier than usual if its dull in the first 30-45 minutes, but goal stats suggest it’s reasonable to hope for a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline by then.

Brondby v AGF – I have a feeling this could be an annihilation by the home team, but the price is far too high based on their recent form so leaving it alone.

Luzern – crazy price considering the form stats, not touching with a barge pole at that price.

Leipzig – overpriced. HT LTD possibly.

 

 

 

 

 


Comments

Sunday 23 October — 7 Comments

  1. Hi Tim – a couple of games that I have found that may be of interest:

    Rosenborg v Odd – enter at HT
    Standard v Waaslan-Beveren at KO
    Atletico MG v Figuerense – enter at 20 mins

    What do you think of these?

    • Hi James. Atletico MG, I was just looking at and it looks a corker. Just the price is so high it could be costly if it takes a long time to score and sometimes these Brazilian games can do that. Definitely not a game I would say is a bad one to trade, just decided not to due to the price. Getting in after 20 minutes may help reduce the odds you enter at but will it reflect value, i.e. will the drop in odds do MORE than just save you 20 mins worth of risk? I don’t know, would need to see the game and the odds movements, but possibly a worthwhile idea. For me I will just leave it as if its this high before KO, I suspect the odds will remain too high (unless a goal) throughout the game. Often my approach with these is to watch the first 10-15 and see if those odds drop fast, sometimes you can get good value as the top end of the price is chopped off quickly with a slow starting game, and then you can get a valuable entry price

    • Rosenborg – I like the stats, but the away team seem to have a fairly good defence which would make sense given their league position. If it were 4.2 I would be interested, but up around 5 I think it’s just too expensive. A HT entry would make more sense than a KO trade though yes.

      Standard – Not too keen on the home team’s form and they don’t score enough average goals for this to be worth the price, however taking a trade at KO just for 15 minutes wouldn’t be such a bad idea in my view, possibly staying in if it is very VERY lively, but that can lead to being sucked into a loss you might not have been involved in on another day, so having a strict plan here is crucial, if doing anything with it!

      Watch the volume on both too

  2. Thanks for that Tim. With regard to the Standard game, although the home team have 1 or 2 losses and draws in their home form, they were against Anderlecht & Charleroi who are both strong sides. Waasland is a much weaker side with absolutely shocking away form. Also while Standard don’t score that many, Waasland seem only too happy to concede plenty of goals. And Standard score over half their goals in the first half an hour so one could just stay in til HT if no goal is scored thereby reducing the risk on the trade.

  3. Thanks Tim – lets hope today has a few less shockers! Very odd results with Malmo & Galatasaray although I wasn’t on either. I did take a small red on the Sturm game as I closed out after they went a goal down & 5 minutes later they scored!

    • yes, unbelievable shockers yesterday, but I do find that happens from time to time and its painful to see two totally unmatched teams, unbeaten teams, top v bottoms etc, suddenly choose to grind out a rare 0-0 just when i happen to trade em! But its part of the game, and why money management and sticking to the long term plan is so important. Yes Malmo was just ridiculous. Sturm – well done. You stuck to the plan, that means you can survive when other traders won’t

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