Any other score?!

2-4

It was looking like being a case of PSV coming back strong, or trying so hard to do so that they left their goal open. clearly the latter is the case! Still, some recovered green and a small loss to end a day that could have been a small green day, no biggie either way really, but a good learning experience for some I am sure. Easy to get in a mess in games like this, as the stronger a team is, the more they push to win what should be “their” game, and this often does lead to results like this which look like major shocks on the form card but really they are quite likely when the home team throws everyone up the other end!

A fun bit of football if nothing else. onwards and upwards. I notice Napoli made a mockery of their draw price (6) as expected, i just don’t get why some games are so overpriced like that, but one glance at stats brings it all back down to earth


Comments

Any other score?! — 16 Comments

    • Some are yes, but the best answer to that question is to ask another – what do the stats say about that? 😉
      remember stats show you the real world results. Some teams are very unpredictable and have weird runs of losses and shock wins etc, these are well worth avoiding. PSV2 has been around a good while and have fairly consistently strong results. Today is a good example of how a shock result can come without it really meaning anything negative about the team.
      Basically today, PSV scored first and scored quick, as all strong home sides should! But they conceded a penalty, i don’t know the circumstances of it but it could have been a dive by an Oss striker when he had no chance of scoring, for all I know. A dominant team like PSV then go all out to defend their pride and get one back, oops, Oss slip through and get another against the run of play. PSV then really take offence and throw everything at the other end, which the game activity suggested was the case as their attack rates shot up after that. So I would have a feeling this will be one of those odd results on PSV’s form card, and I doubt it will be repeated very often.
      The hindsight solution was to do as you did. Take that early goal, get some green, and get out 🙂

  1. just had a little lay at 1-3 @ 1.12 then greened up at 2-3 @1.3,thinking exactly what you just said tim,that psv would go for it so big chance of another goal either way.

  2. thank you tim for the advice.
    let me see if i understood,you follow the stats and the Strong home teams and SOMETIME s**t happens.

  3. haha, yes thats a very good summary!! But important to see how 5hit happens too if there is any way to understand it. and in this case I think the game was a bit unfair on PSV. In other words, I wouldn’t read much into this result in their stats next time they play, I would have a good bet that if they hadn’t conceded a penalty, they would have won this game 3-1 at least. they were on the back foot which they were not expecting and probably over-reacted and didn’t give Oss any respect. if they had been leading throughout i am sure it would have been a walkover as they would have kept their shape, stuck to their strategy and won the game professionally. Basically it looks like they lost their head a bit here. from a trading perspective its all fairly irrelevant though. Trade what you see, not what you think, another very useful trading slogan. You did the best of all of us by banking your early green.

    • yes thats a good shout, its borderline for me though between the odds (liability) to lay Wigan, and the potential of a goal from Huddersfield. Its one of those where I think its a winner, but if it isnt its quite a hefty loss, so the long term edge is hard to work out other than doing it regularly. I tend to stick to 2 goal leads so the liability is much lower and there is more greenable green (tongue twister) available on a goal. good luck if you do it though, not a bad idea at all, especially if the odds get below 1.4 with enough time left

    • haha, not at all, i said it in the book and i mean it 100%. By far the safest approach is always the simplest. Plus, you have to factor in that the less time you are involved in the markets, the less time your bank can suffer, and bank preservation is top priority. dabbled more in play comes later. you need a solid system to base your trading on, and greening up the first goal is definitely the fastest way to obtaining that.

  4. just thinking Wigan will sit back as desperate for points,although they’ve only conceded 12 away in 9 games. all Huddersfield at the moment though. wait for Wigan lay to come down a touch.

    • Yes I definitely agree with the thinking, it’s just the price that bothers me as I think it makes the risk v reward balance unappealing. ten minutes left and 1.4, thats not much less than half your potential win (ungreened) risked on a trade which requires a goal in ten minutes, in a game where they scored one in 80 minutes. I think that’s on the border with being bad value, not to say it can’t win of course, just not sure about the long term prospects, i.e. if you did that 100 times with 10 minutes left relying on a goal, losing 40% of potential win when it doesnt work out. I suspect that would fail the test but could be wrong. Backtesting these things in soccer stats databases is the way to go! I tend to use gut feel just because I have been doing it so long, but i can’t deny that backtesting would beat my gut feeling, it has to! i just can’t be bothered, but many people discover tasty little “systems” that way.

  5. know exactly what you mean tim and thanks for all the advice. still relatively knew to trading,so still in the mindset that I’ve had a good weekend so still doing the odd risk!!!,which will hopefully die down once start to implement a few systems I’m working on.will purchase your ebook this week mate.been looking around for 1,but so many out there with bad reviews,but great to see you so hands on with advice. cheers mate.

    • No probs mate, any time. If you buy the book, remember there is a refund guarantee, so if its anything other than everything you expect, get a refund!

  6. great mate.that advice you gave just is in plain simple English which is exactly what’s needed.out of interest tim if you don’t mind,the growing your bank by 3% daily seems realistic with some common sense and knowledge. what would say roughly is the amount of trades and % of bank needed to achieve this?.cheers mate.

    • Those are sort of piece of string questions really. Its so hard to say, some people like to trade more and risk less per trade, some prefer to pick very few trades but bet much more % of bank on each one. The best approach is to learn to pick games, get some results under the old belt, and then see which approach is right for you. From there you can calculate what stakes and number of trades suit you best. it varies so much there is no way to say really, each to his own!

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