A couple of important points here… when exiting this method its important to manually enter the exit stake, not click Cash Out button. This is because there is usually a wide gap between the two sides of the book, between back and lay prices i mean, and that can hand back a lot of profit. This game looks to have bottomed out around 2.84 and quickly started rising then. This is how to see at what point the punters believe the leading team may now actually go on to win, if you watch the queues of money very closely you can actually see this market realisation take place, and that’s your ideal exit as its the bottom of the time decay curve (if no goals), but its not essential to watch for this.
Just while typing this it has risen back to 3. So it looks like the layers are beating the backers now, so its time to get out, but it’s time anyway as clock has hit 70 minutes. funny how it happened bang on the time I said to make sure out by! This stuff isn’t just cobbled together you know 😀 Years of backtesting led to this method.
Obviously this is a small green, but the main hope behind this method is for a goal to be scored from the home team around the 50-60 minute mark, thats the ideal result as the draw odds then begin heavily dropping and you take the scoop of some time decay plus a lateish equaliser. The later the goal the better, but you have to factor in the risks increasing if a late second goal was scored by the away team, as the whole bet is off at that point.
There are lots of market dynamics which I will explain another time, these show why the strategy is a good one and why it works, why markets move for a certain period in one direction, and how to be in earlier usually so that you catch some of that drop shown on the chart after that goal was scored.
Anyway, thats all for now. I haven’t explained this well as it came to my mind late and its a bit rushed, but i will go over this another time in much better detail!
P.S. Looking at Walsall’s price which is now 1.5, who is glad they didn’t lay them at 2.7 after the first goal?? Me too :D. Lay low, back high 😉