Running late today

Laying the draw at PSV2, @ 4.1 13 mins in.

actually no more updates, nothing else of interest, quite a few close calls but slight concerns with form so just going to stick to PSV2 and hope they do as I expect and show that their last game was a rare blip on a faultless home form sheet!

 


Comments

Running late today — 6 Comments

    • Thats definitely the safest approach. the goal has come, bank the green. However looking at the scoring times chart on soccerway, I am holding until 55-60 mins latest for a second goal. if it comes i will lay PSV as my exit. Just got to hope the away team doesn’t score. I could hedge against that a bit by backing away team at 20-1 now, but probably wont bother. I am happy with the risk of this becoming a losing trade, unlikely but obviously possible. but i would never ever say its not wise to green up what is a green trade

        • Then its very very wise to do as you did there. NEVER feel you missed out IF you took a trade, it got a goal, and you traded out. That IS trading. Worrying about what you “could have” made if you held on for longer is the beginning of turning that into gambling. so stick to your guns and keep doing the right thing!

  1. hi tim. in a similar position as Jon at the minute. had a few good trades last couple of days,but it’s the one’s that are not going quite to plan that I’m still hesitant in exiting,’sure’ then ‘hoping’ for that goal.is this a common problem with new traders,just trying to reassure myself!.cheers mate.

    • Hi Lee, it’s a “common” problem, it’s a problem ALL new traders have. Believe me, its a phase of learning, but this phase can kill your trading career very early. I did, I don’t know a single trader who hasn’t chased losses, held on far too long in a trade or let it run to a full bet etc.
      Remember, if you enter and exit, its a trade. If you enter and dont exit (when planned, or at all) it is NOT trading, it is GAMBLING. If someone is going to gamble, you are better off reading form on horses and finding a good 25-1 shot to back each way, believe me! Turning a trade into a gamble is the worst thing you can do. There is a good reason why….

      When you SET OUT to gamble, you decide what you are going to lose and you prepare for that. When you set out to trade, LTD for example, your possible loss is a TRADED OUT LOSS, not a full bet loss. therefore turning a trade into a gamble is far more costly than a lost gamble which was only ever meant to be a gamble! This is why it is SO crucial to be a trader OR a gambler, but never both. Also, if a trade goes wrong, and it then turns into a gamble by the trader not exiting, you have just entered the worst gamble you could find, as the trade FAILED, so how the hell is a gamble going to succeed on the same event!!?? The trade was based on stats and evidence, if all of that failed, hope alone has no chance of beating the odds!

      Trading means a plan, a plan for entering and a plan for exiting. If you change either one of those, you have stopped trading and started gambling.

      The ONLY change to a planned exit which is acceptable for a trader, is to exit SOONER rather than LATER than planned! Just like in the stock market, you can move your stop loss CLOSER, but never further away than your first stop loss position. The position was decided based on what you can afford to risk and the market factors which make that a good place for a stop loss. To move it away increases the risks to a level you were not prepared to take on at the start of the trade (boo boo number 1) and also makes a mockery of the market factors the trader considered deeply before positioning that stop loss where he did to start with (boo boo number 2)!!

      Hopefully this goes some way to explaining not just that it is wrong and dangerous to let trades run longer than planned, but why it is SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO dangerous. I really can’t overstate this point. Hope that helps a bit.

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