Well Graz got another as half expected. I am actually adding to my lay at 1.01. There is over half an hour left in this game, and the home usually score 1.75 goals per game, and there is plenty of time for a green up here. By laying again, I only need the odds to go to 1.07 to recover my first trade and no doubt green some up too. But this must be seen as a trade in its own right, this is not chasing a losing trade. The same arguments and stats apply now as they did before, I just have a chance to take a bit more red, or a much greater amount of green.
On another note, I have noticed the price on U4.5 goals is 1.25 ish. Maybe I wouldn’t be saying this if I hadn’t had such a good day already (I think I would though), but that is a 4-1 bet, as remember if a goal goes in there is no tradeout, its a full win as the market closes. Graz has scored three goals in quick succession, and with half an hour to go, and both teams clearly playing an open game, one more goal from either team nets me 4 times my risk. So I am having a reasonable stake on this as I think it’s a value bet all day long. (5-1 bet as its 1.2 almost now)
And this only helps to explain why I am doing the above…..
P.S. – Again this is SPECULATIVE stuff, I am MORE than happy lose my money on these trades, its about RvR, not perfect odds in my favour. Graz could sit back and rest now, the away team could decide they are more worried about avoiding a 4-0 embarrassment than scoring one back, anything could happen. But the odds of a goal from the home team is higher than reflected in the odds, hence the value bet, and the odds of another goal from either team is also higher than reflected by 1.2, in my humble opinion! (and its my humble money risked here, so I only have myself to answer to :))