Oh go on then, just a little one

Wolfsberger v Sturm Graz – I checked this when it went 0-1. It wasn’t good enough. I have checked it again now its just gone 0-2 at the stroke of HT. It’s still not fantastic, but a lay at 1.07 on Sturm Graz looks to me like a worthwhile position to take here. Again, with these you have to be happy to say good bye to your liabilty, as one more goal from Graz (and they could easily get another quickly after HT) will probably mean a losing trade. However at 1.07 the implied probability is 93.5%.

Remember that’s an IP on Graz to WIN THE GAME. But this position is not a FT bet on who wins, it’s a trade, and the outcome we want (and need) is a goal from the home team. To my mind, there is a lot more chance of a home goal in the second half than 6.5%. So my position is basically a lay at 1.07 with 2-4 times the upside to the down side. In other words if no goals or an away goal, my liability is 7% of my stake. But a home goal will probably mean several times that in green. Therefore the RvR is decent, the total risk is small and easily swallowable, so it’s got to be taken even though the away team are far strong and should win. The home team usually score a goal or two in each game even against decent opposition, and thats all we need. If they do score, I will immediately green up fully.


Comments

Oh go on then, just a little one — 2 Comments

  1. I traded the WestBrom/Watford match yesterday by laying West Brom at 1.10 when they were 2-0 up. Immediately after Watford scored the West Brom back price jumped to 1.31 and I traded out for a nice little green.

    Had I stayed in waiting for Watford to equalise, then of course I would have lost. I was tempted as I am a Watford fan!!

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