Sunday proper update

Fiorentina v Palermo – unbelievable price, over 6 on draw yet home team score 0.67 goals per game and their best result is 1-0 all season! I am sorely tempted to back the draw for 20 minutes there, but I tend not to do this any more even though I used to do it with quite good success. I just dont enjoy trading where a home goal wipes my trade out, more a choice than a trading decision. Havin said that, this game has shock written all over it, but I will leave it alone if i can’t find a low risk way in as they could break their average goal stats heavily against this team. in play opportunity only, possibly

Genk v Lokoren – A bit pricy, but they are on a great run of home form and should win easily. However they are not scoring well enough to justify the 4.4 draw price, so I wil be considering a LTD later on during the game if its level around 35-45 mins

Midtjylland v AGF – not too impressive, but it looks like a busier second half. May take a position or LTD at HT if level.

Ajax – I was interested until I noticed the price. Sod that! no trade there unless something weird happens.

Bournemouth v Liverpool. Made a lot of green today on this game, but have to mentioned I still feel a bit gutted. I had a huge lay just going onto Liverpool at 2-3, it was down around 1.05. i was in the queue to get matched and if i had, I had a green on B and the draw which had quite a few zeros after it. Literally 1-2 seconds needed  to get matched, and I would have been partying tonight. I still made a very fat green as they let the game go as I had a feeling they would, but that was 2 seconds away from a day to remember for a very long time! I keep saying it, when you get an idea of doing something, either cancel it, or DO IT INSTANTLY! Lady luck has a way of punishing you for dilly dallying in this game! certainly not complaining though, that would be silly. (and greedy)


Comments

Sunday proper update — 2 Comments

  1. Fiorentina match. Would an alternative to backing draw then laying off after 20 mins if still 0-0 be to lay Fiorentina then back if no score after 20 mins or so? Increases possibility of green if Palermo take shock lead as well.

    • Yes definitely, there are various ways to do it, including backing correct score. Many years ago I looked into it and found the biggest time decay on a 0-0 is on the draw market when it starts off high priced. Also a goal from away team would have seen a nice drop in odds as well. Doing it your way would definitely be another way of doing and i have done it with success, usually when i think an away goal is quite likely.

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