Tuesday 20 December

Well my little throwaway bet stayed goal-less I see. I had someone ask why I didn’t keep tabs on this one in case of a goal, i.e. to green up if so. I didn’t have time to explain last night, but this wasn’t just a frivolous bet, there was some logic behind it which I will explain now…

PSV2 is on cracking form of late as most of us are aware as they have made us some nice green trades recently. They are scoring for fun in most games. MVV is doing similarly well, and score a couple of goals in most games home or away. So, with U2.5 priced so low at sub 1.1 with around half an hour left, it offered good value in my view. But, and yes you are right to spot it, I would not usually leave a game as a bet when one goal would see some green. The reason was this….

I thought there was around 50/50 chances between:

No goals –  both teams tight and holding onto a point for dear life, knowing how dangerous their opponents were if they took a risk and left themselves open.

At least one goal.

But I decided that IF one team managed to sneak a goal in, the other team would have come back strongly to reply, and the game would then be open. Short version……. if ONE goal was scored, I firmly expected a 1-2 or 2-1 scoreline. Therefore I priced my trade to have a silly small risk attached (I took 1.1 and ordered 1.06 – 2 bets) but would not have traded out if a goal was scored as I firmly believed and still do believe that one goal would have transformed that game. I did consider something else, which was a couple of small bets on two scorelines (2-1 and 1-2) which were both around 40-1 at the time. But I was already in with my lay of Unders, so that’s why I walked away for the evening and basically treated it as a 10-1 shot with evens odds of winning of losing. Hope that makes sense, and for anyone wondering what my logic was, now you know.

Today…..

Atalanta – I like the look of this game and it looks like one which is unlikely to see an away goal according to their stats. But the price is just too high. I may get in at HT.

Eintracht Frankfurt – I have been back and forth over this game. On the one hand the stats suggest it could be low scoring, but the H2H is a strong stat and that goes very much the other way. It’s usually 3 or 4 goals between them. After much thought, and since both teams could score well here, I decided against a LTD which was a close call. Instead I will give it 15-20 minutes then lay Under2.5 at 1.5 if no goals, smallish stake, adding more at 1.25 for a more decent stake. There is an argument to just lay unders from the off at 1.72 as I think that offers reasonable value, but if as i expect its a bit slow to get going, that price could be 1.4 within the first half which would be much better value, but I think LTD is best avoided as I can see Mainz going ahead, perhaps even 0-2 ahead which would offer another trade op.

Mouscron v Westerlo – Another one that has done my head in a  bit today. On one hand, I think the scoreline of 0-0 (or U2.5) @ 14 is offering some easy money for early part of game but I dont like trades which can turn into a losing bet with one goal, even though both teams are pretty dire. On the other hand, if its 0-0 at HT I will definitely be doing something with this game as I see goals in it after a possibly slow start. Having said that I would not be at all surprised to see 2 goals before HT hence why I will not be doing anything early, but if it is 0-0 at HT i think there is value in LTD or laying unders.


Comments

Tuesday 20 December — 4 Comments

  1. Hi Tim, in the Mouscron game you say “if it is 0-0 at HT i think there is value in LTD or laying unders.” Can I just ask how do you decide whether to go for LTD or lay unders?

    • Tricky to answer that as its different each time as are the criteria. it often depends on whether I think draw odds allow for a goal from either side, versus whether I think its all about the home team. If the home team is 2.0, away team 6, draw 3, then laying the draw is riskier as an away goal is another factor which could threaten the green value, as it would be much less than if home scored, and in some case it would be a loss if market believed away team can’t win.

      Unders is safer in many ways, but need to be quick to green and less green on that 1-0 goal compared to LTD.

      it varies so much.

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