Friday 30 December

Hull – Poss HT LTD if level

Brighton – I like the look of this. LTD from KO

Weird – stats on Newcastle are not quite as nice as Brighton’s above, but the draw price is 6 instead of 4?! I would be tempted to back draw for 15 minutes there. Not going to as they could score early, but unlikely.

Rochdale  – 27 min LTD if level (that’s extra safe. I would not be against LTD from 15 mins but need to find a live stream really to get in much before half hour.)

Verona v Cesena – hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm! Bearing in mind it was an Italian LegaB game that I am sure was rigged for a draw once in the past, this one has my nose twitching a tad. The stats show a very strong home team, almost top plays bottom. OK the stats could be better, but these stats would usually suggest draw odds of 4 at least. A look at their H2H shows an AWFUL lot of draws, which could be why, or it could show that because they play a lot of rigged games. HAHA.

It doesn’t seem to matter how many goals are scored, they always draw! Its easy to get carried away on the idea something is rigged, but fixed games certainly do occur. I will probably just sit and watch this one with interest if i can, watching bets on ladders. What usually gives it away is a huge influx of money to back the draw just before KO, and then after any goals, the draw odds go out and then drop straight back down. if I see that happening, I MAY have a small dabble but more interested to just watch this one for future reference. Of course it could be totally legit and the market just thinks it will end a draw because it usually does!

Benevento – YUK! But, if it gets to 75 mins with no goals, I may have a lay under 0.5 or draw

 

 


Comments

Friday 30 December — 3 Comments

    • Yes I have mentioned it a few times I think. Years ago I had a few very profitable evenings on clearly fixed games. Not sure this is one but it could be.
      I am kicking myself, I was about to post that I was backing Novara at 0-1 down. I ordered my back bet at 9.2 being greedy as could have had 9.0. Came to post on the site and heard ping, 1-1. My bet wasnt matched :(. few minutes later its 2-1 and I am chewing on my desk 😀

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