Replies to a few readers….

Hi all, just a quickie to comment on some emails and reader-suggested trades today…

Kawasaki – This is a good price for a LTD and I would not be against the idea of a trade from KO at 3.8ish, however the better option in my view is a wait and see job, HT LTD if scores are level, with (and/or) perhaps an Overs bet at HT if it’s 0-0 (small one as bet or larger one as a trade out after 1 or 2 goals)

Football half time lay the draw stats

 

Kofu v Kashiwa – I can’t remember who was considering trading this as an away LTD now, but my thoughts are a definite NO here. Looking at the home and away form for both teams, I would say there is as much chance of a home win as an away win, or a draw, purely based on stats and form. Definitely not a trade for me, unless you were backing the draw, not laying it! 🙂

Kashima v Sopporo – No way Jose! 🙂

This looks like a low scoring game all day long according to the stats, considering the draw price is 4.8 currently (ten mins to KO) this is a back the draw for me, perhaps until half time which is longer than I usually do, although if there is some decent green long before (which often happens if the game is dull which it should be on the probabilities at least) then I will green up and exit earlier 20-30 minutes. Remember though, one goal ruins that idea so it’s important to stake defensively, think “long term”. Maybe a small hedge bet on the away team (since they are underdogs but most likely to score in first half hour I think).

back the draw bet

 

I hope that was a bit more useful than me replying by email where nobody else benefits. I have had many a good trade on Japanese league games, but you do have to be a bit careful with volume sometimes.

 

P.S, I mentioned to some of you (who asked) that there is a new horse tipping service opening up soon which appears to have very strong results in the 5 months prior to launch. I have seen their results for myself but they are not published yet as the service isn’t opening up to new subscribers until next week, possibly Monday. I have never been a fan of tipping services, I just hate them on principal that they do the work and punters follow like sheep! Having said that, I know there are occasionally good services which do produce easy profits for members, and I suspect this will be one of those rare good ones. Obviously it’s not my service and even though I have seen their past results, I haven’t seen their future results 😉 !! The signs look good to me though and I may have a rare dabble just for some fun and to give the service a good review for my readers if the results are as good as the spreadsheet I saw for the past 5 months. I won’t include any links in this post as they are not accepting members yet but when they do I will drop a quick post on the blog for those that are interested in this kind of thing.

Scorcher today so hope you all have your Factor50 on 🙂


Comments

Replies to a few readers…. — 2 Comments

  1. Why would anyone want to lay the draw?
    Lay under 1.5 goals between 3.1 and 4. odds
    Why?
    Because if the away team score first or the underdog in the first 5 mins it will only go from 3.5 to 4 if you are lucky.
    Now if you lay under 1.5 and a goal is scored it will go as high as 9 or higher, take a look at some markets you will see.
    Also another problem with the draw lay as you are trying to cash out there may be another quick goal.
    If it’s the fav you are back to where you started.
    Laying under 1.5 goals another goes in, your all sorted.
    Check it out I’m right.

    • I wouldn’t disagree with you Hans, each to his own and I do often use 1.5 and 2.5 goals markets instead/in addition/as a hedge.
      However, if you knew what level many people are at with betfair trading in general, LTD is often something they have tried and is easier to follow and easier to make firm rules on entry and exit prices. Laying U1.5 between 3.1 and 4 can discount many games which otherwise make good LTD trades. LTD has been around a long time and has proven itself over and over again as a long term strategy. Are there other ways, sometimes better ways to approach the same market? Yes, absolutely. But it can confuse newbies quite easily so I keep it simple here. I could back the favourite if I am confident of a goal from them, I could back Over 2.5, Lay under 1.5 or 2.5, back 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 etc correct scores, back over 3.5 goals, lay under 0.5 goals, use the half time market instead of full game market…. or lay the draw. The options are endles if you make an assumption on what will happen based on stats and are right about the general way the game will play out. Lay the draw is far from the only way to trade these games, but it’s time tested and above all simple for people to learn, and the draw markets always have lots of liquidity (if a game has any interest at all). That’s why I choose it, but I don’t claim to offer the best of anything (which can only ever be an opinion anyway), just something that works and is simple to learn and follow. If you have a preferred way to trade, that’s great, you really don’t need this site 🙂

      “Check it out I’m right.” – In my view it’s not a good idea to consider one method right and therefore another wrong. Methods either work or they don’t, the rest is about personal preference and choices based on risk appetite, how many trades you want a day, how much you want to stake, how confident you are etc etc. I have known people who only trade the O/U2.5 goals market (and 1.5 occasionally) and I know they are profitable. I also know people who have traded LTD for many years, even longer than I have, and they make very nice profits too, several times what their full time jobs paid them, so it clearly isn’t “wrong” for them to do this. I suspect it’s also partly what you are used to doing. Some people are older in the tooth!

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