Superb!

Perugia beaten 5-1!! Actually not a losing trade for people who stayed in until HT (longest I would ever wait, as soon as green appears I am out when away team score first). But 5-1!? This is a team who score 0.33 goals per game on average away from home! One to make a note of, not to trade in future but to be aware of so you don’t let the new away goal scoring average fool you into expecting goals! Palermo scored nice and early, didn’t beat the other team which looked likely but then we don’t care who wins, just who scores first. It looks like being a …

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You couldn’t make this stuff up!!!!

Away goal 5 minutes in. HA HA HA, A few of you have asked me to stop commenting on games they are trading as I always seem to “jinx” them. I often say I don’t believe in that stuff, but some days I do have to wonder! Well what we have now is (another) game which has bucked the stats trend (big time in this case!). This now presents other ops, this will be a game of goals. The away team’s usually defensive approach to games against stronger teams has obviously not played out here, which means the gloves are off and I fancy backing the home team now at …

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Another quickie

“Hi Tim Good to hear from you again. I too have been looking at Serie B and I think Perugia looks like a decent trade. KO in 5 mins! What do you think about that one? My only slight concern is that the away side could be a bit more generous when it comes to conceding goals.” Yes, no objections there at all…. At 3.7 to LTD it’s respectable that. If it was over 4 I might start getting a bit concerned about the away team not conceding too many, just as you spotted yourself there. but at 3.7, top plays bottom, there should surely be a goal, hopefully two! …

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Palermo

Yes, someone spotted this and it’s cheap, very cheap at 3.2 to LTD. There are negatives of course, scoring times are all over the place and away team could score, but at 3.2 and Palermo’s home scoring prowess, it’s a trade for me all day long. Almost a half priced one, with lots of green to come if/when Palermo score the first goal. …

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Laying unders on Thisted

Quite surprised this reached HT without a single goal. It won’t stay that way if stats are anything to go by! Away team are stronger but either could/should score so a lay of any unders market would be ok EDIT – BAAAAH sorry, goal while I was bloody inserting the stats image above! I missed it too, grr! …

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Pescara?

Currently 1-2 –  Someone asked me about pescara and yes the stats support at least a small bet on Pescara or lay of Cittadella. Its quite late on in the game now, so it’s very 50-50 for me, but the goal stats say quite a lot, and I would have fancied a draw based on their past results and the early goal from away team. Far from guaranteed this one but 3.33 goals scored at home on average (and unbeaten record) and for me this is a simple probabilities bet PS This post was just to answer a question, it’s not some kind of “tip” to suggest people dive in …

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A few more from J

“Excellent post Tim. I have a couple of trades that I am looking at today that you have not mentioned so I just thought I’d ask what you think of the following trades: *1.30 Club Brugges KO trade. *2.30 Gornik Zabrze (Polish League) – after 30 mins if the game is lively *7.00 Rosenborg KO trade – yes Sarpsborg are one team below, but Rosenborg are way ahead on points, have an excellent H2H record against them, have an excellent home record, score heavily and Sarpsborg score very few away goals.” Righty ho, very quick look at these…. 1.30 – I am aware I am typing this at 1.45 so …

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Sunday 1 Oct

Had a few more questions for today’s busy coupon so will answer with my thoughts below. Before that let me confirm that yesterday wasn’t a great day on the football for me either. These things happen as most people know but a few of you newbies need to remember this is all about probabilities, not certainties! If you want certainties, well I don’t know where to suggest you go because I am yet to find any business or any area of life where there are absolute certainties! A job is certainly a lot closer to being a certainty (of getting paid) than trading in any market, IF you look at day to …

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