Well it’s been a while so I thought I would drop some thoughts for Boxing Day’s footie……
Spurs – at those odds I would be more tempted to lay Spurs than lay the draw! One to avoid I think, regardless of the obvious slaughter being quite possible, just nowhere near enough value in the odds and the stats suggest a shock is more than possible.
West Brom v Everton – Two choices here, either a LTD at HT if 0-0, or a LTD at 2.6-2.8 if 0-0. The latter is my preference, bearing in mind goals may be sparse but I expect one in the second half if not the first.
Watford v Leicester – I fancy a game with goals here, a Leicester win too. Could be wrong, but the value is there for all to see so I will be putting my money where my mouth is on this one. A LTD from KO is worth a crack I think.
Manure v Burnley – Manure is hugely overbet here, in my humble opinion anyway, and the stats suggest that too. Their last home meeting was a 0-0 draw, and Man U only managed 1-0 against Bournemouth recently. 1.25 is a joke. Thats not to say (of course) that Man U wont win this 4-0, it could happen. But the balance between the stats and the odds are way out of whack so I don’t frankly care if that does happen. All i can see here is value, and the value is in going against ManU. Laying Man U until HT could be a ballsy move, backing Burnley could be even more ballsy. Yet more ballsy traders might take on a back bet on Under0.5 goals at 16 or 17-1, but how long do you hold out?! Half time max for me. Final idea (and safest I think) would be to back Under 2.5 goals at 2.14 and give it 30-40 mins max. All that Xmas pud, Manure’s year in year out reliably crap Xmas form (for me anyway!) and the stats all suggest I might get away with no goals for at least half an hour here while they all run off the beer (or Champagne I should say, I forget these footballers are overpaid nancy boys these days :D).
Actually based on the stats, Chelsea is much like a Man U offering for me too. However I wont take on two of those types of trades in one day, and Chelsea have a habit of still having a spark at Xmas, unlike Man U, in my experience anyway from many past years of weird Xmas results (beware of these in all Xmas trading!). I might chuck a small lay on Chelsea just because 1.2 is too cheap, but I wont be holding on longer than 25 minutes to get out of that one for a small green, or a full loss of course.
Liverpool – I probably won’t bother with this, not really a trade there. But still worth pointing out that it does get my interest when I see prices like 1.17. Yes, of COURSE the scousers should bash them 8-0. But will they? Last time they met, it was 2-3 (Swansea won away!) So its FEASIBLE that it could happen. It needs to happen around 1 in 5 times for a Liverpool full lay to be a breakeven strategy in itself, so if Swansea won 1 in 4 of their away games to Liverpool, it’s a winning strategy. I can’t claim to know, and I certainly haven’t done the numbers (some boring reader probably has, feel free to chip in!) but it gets you thinking doesn’t it. In truth, if my day is going well, I will probably chuck a lay on Liverpool, IF I can sit and watch the game, just to make it a bit more interesting (and to allow a trade out if Pool are banging shots in continuously). I will expect to lose. But a win would be nice, and perfectly possible.
Bear in mind these short odds lays are not about a good strike rate, as they are good winners when they come off, but the odds are (clearly) against me on the trade. It’s about value. This is not to be confused with bog standard LTD where it’s about strike rate and reliable, consistent results. On that note that reminds me I meant to offer a Xmas discount off the ebook as is customary for this time of year, so I better do it now…….
OK all done! I have just set up a discount coupon for 20% off ALL my trading ebooks (view them here) – Use coupon code XMAS2017 in the checkout. This will expire on New Year’s day, just in case anyone needs to get the wife pi55ed before ordering. Ha ha, no offence to any wives reading, but if you are one, you shouldn’t be shocked to read that as you are no doubt married to something at least in some way similar to this oaf. 😀
I am not going to list the Championship games, that would be unkind as I am sure you all need something to do to make excuses to get away from the in laws! Let’s just say Millwall could be a goalsy game and worth a LTD I think regardless of who scores (exit after 1st goal). The rest is for you to do while the dog is being sick, the kids are fighting, and the neighbours are having a drunken domestic. Did I mention I love Xmas?! 😀
Hope you all have fun, and go to Church to pray forgiveness for not going for the last 364 days (or more!)
P.S. there is nothing like a good laugh, and these are probably the funniest two things I have seen this year, the second one I have seen many times over the years, but it’s a yearly ritual of mine to watch at least once just to exercise my stomach muscles to the point of agony!!