A few football trading comments for today

Howdy all. A few readers have asked about a few games today so I am going to list a few which I think are worth a comment or two today:

Sevilla v Getafe :

laying the draw trade

Head to head football trading stats

The odds are currently 4.6 on the draw. I like the look of this. It’s not without risks, the main risks are an early goal from Getafe or a slow start from Sevilla. I would not oppose the idea of a trade from KO here, but a safer option would be to wait 15 minutes. For those with very limited banks, as always I would lean towards taking less risk and waiting for the circumstances to come to your trade, rather than chasing a trade at bigger odds. In other words, you could wait until 30-40 mins (40 mins latest for me) to enter your trade, giving yourself maximum chance of profit and minimal losses if it is a losing trade. Obviously the trade off is that you are more likely to miss out on a trade, but with limited banks, this IS the way to approach things. Missing a trade costs nothing, losing trades cost the bank.

I like the respective H&A form of both teams (second image), especially the dismal away scoring record of Getafe. For this reason I think I would be getting in at around 15 minutes for hopefully around 4.2. If I am watching the game and it’s very dull and gives me doubts, I would wait until 30-40 minutes while watching the game. If it gets to 40 minutes, still dull and no goals, I will trade it from then until the odds get down to 2.0 in the second half, trading out at that point. I would be surprised if no goals are scored by then, but its possible of course.

 

Gijon v Gymnastic – This is a great example of a game I would NOT be getting involved in.

avoiding a bad trade

no trade

The first picture (Form) is enough for me to close the window right there, which is what I would have done if someone hadn’t asked for more comments on why I reject it. I don’t even need to show the team stats, the Head to Head is enough to back up the earlier reaction of dumping this idea on its head! Yes Gijon won 4-0 away last year, and I STRONGLY suspect they will smash them at home today. BUT, my suspicion is never enough to trade or risk money on. That’s pure gambling, gut feeling has no place here. I need to make sure (as much as possible) that IF I LOSE MONEY in a trade, I feel HAPPY about the reasons why I lost money. In this example, I would be wondering why the hell I took it on! So yes it could easily be a 6-0 home win today, but the stats and form show more than enough reason to have doubts. Those doubts are all I need to avoid it, rather than take it on and wish I hadn’t. I really do believe Gijon will win strongly in this game but if I can’t see examples of them beating Gimnastic (at HOME) then I have to wonder why. Then I note Gijon’s home form against other teams and they just don’t look too great at all. The draw price of 4.5 is way over the top compared to those stats, so that’s more than enough for me to walk away and find something I am more comfortable to RISK money on.

 

Ross County v Rangers – This is another dubious one, not dubious as far as what I think the result will be (strong win to Rangers most likely), but dubious in terms of whether I can FIND STATS-BASED REASONS to take on a risky AWAY LTD. The risks are higher with Away LTD trades because if the strong away team doesn’t score early as everyone expects them too, the draw odds can often come down faster than the do in Home LTD trades. Plus no team plays as well away from home as they do at home, so I need VERY strong reasons to take on an Away LTD, at least 20% stronger than I need for a Home trade. If I was pushed to trade this, I would say entering at 30 mins if it is 0-0, that would “probably” be a profitable approach. But this is guesswork, informed guesswork and guesswork I think would work in this instance, but still just guesswork. For this reason, hard as it can be to do, it’s important sometimes to practice the most useful skill any trader has – the skill/ability of WALKING AWAY from a TEMPTATION. “Lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil….”!!!!! Not a bad trading mantra that!!

 

As a great comparison to that, here is another away LTD – Utrech v Ajax:

Ajax trading stats

Now that is a game I ignored due to the odds earlier, and those will small banks should still ignore as these are expensive if they lose. But as I type this I noticed it’s still 0-0 at HT. That’s a perfect time to enter. It’s still a riskier than usual trade, as their away scoring stats show that they build to a strong finish with their strongest scoring period being the last 15 minutes and I can not stay in beyond 70 minutes or so as I will have reached my stop loss (max loss position where i MUST trade out, and will do). So there is a chance of a loss here, but good chance of a goal or two as well, which will send the draw odds very high and we know this because of how the draw odds have behaved already. This is a bit like the earlier mention I made of letting a trade “come to you” rather than chasing one. Many football traders (hopefully not my readers!) will currently be sat quite nervous having laid the draw at a silly high price before KO. And they could have netted good money too, if it worked out. But when it doesn’t, it’s such a long way for the price to fall that I just don’t like it as it can make your whole day feel so negative, and this can lead to major mistakes, angry revenge trading etcetera. In this case, I was actually ignoring this game today, but now that I have spotted it while writing this post, I am involved as I think the stats suggest a strong chance of a win here, with a reasonable chance of a loss too, OF COURSE! But as I have entered well below 4 (evens win to lose ratio @ 4.0), it’s not a horrible expensive loss if the worst does happen.

 

Ajax football trade statsLook at the chart. The odds have collapsed quite nicely due to the UNEXPECTED event happening (no goals before HT). So the steeper the red slope you see there, the more VALUE is in it IF you are opposing that in the market. This is at the heart of value betting/trading.

Also note the lines I drew on, which show where the trend has “stair stepped” or hit resistance. This shows what prices the market (participants) RESISTED the down trend, in other words it was areas where people thought “This is a good price, I have to get some of this before they score” or whatever. What I find (in all markets, including stocks) is the longer a price hangs around at resistance, the bigger the collapse when it does break through that line. Its not possible to show here on such basic charts as these, but in general I find this is the case in any market, and it stands to reason. The more people saying “no, that can’t happen”, the more surprise when IT DOES! And money follows emotion, so the surprise becomes panic (for half the market anyway!) and hence the money gets thrown in heavily to escape bad positions, or take on aggressive new positions. As I said, this trade is a potential loser, because all traders are potential losers. But taking my position after a period of UNEXPECTED activity (no goals) and after the market has REACTED to that surprising action, puts me in the best possible POSITION OF VALUE. It doesn’t make it any more likely that my trade is a winner, this is important to remember. But what it does mean is my RISK V REWARD ratio is much more in my favour. In other words, the potential losses are lower, the potential winnings are higher.

So I often take this approach with games I ‘normally’ would have ignored, or games which look fairly ‘easy’ to predict based on stats, but where the prices or some factor (i.e away game) makes me reject it. Keeping an eye on FlashScores.co.uk is another way to do this, which I often do. If you spot a game which looked like it would be DULL, but it has 2 goals in the first 10-20 minutes, that is an unexpected event. And therefore we know the market will be slightly panicking. This means opportunity, and I will often dive in in any way to oppose the panic! I will be covering this stuff more this year, it’s important and be VERY lucrative as the risks are much lower and profits are often double that of any conventional trade. So it makes a great secret weapon to have ready, just for those occasions when something “odd” happens in any market. Knowing how the other people involved in that market are probably FEELING, is the most useful part. Imagine watching a pendulum like a cat, and trying to catch it right at the full extent of its swing. That’s how I view value betting. Hopefully that analogy makes some sense, it does to me anyway!

(Edit: And not one goal was scored in that game! Good lesson there since I published the stats above. Not often you see a game involving teams with over 3.0 goals per game average on their stats page! Even less often you see these games end 0-0! But perfect demonstration of the need to consider the worst case scenario at ALL times in trading. Hoping for the best is perfectly fine, so long as you are planning for the WORST outcome. You can replace the word “planning” with “managing your bank”. Strange game that one, and who knows maybe that was why I originally rejected it, but can’t get into mysticism no matter how tempting. Was it a valid trade? (Asking that after you LOSE is important). Yes it was. Would I do it again? Yes, absolutely, every single time the same situation arises, I will and do follow the exact same approach. So a great example of a brilliant losing trade. 😀 😀 :D)

 

Volendam v Eagles – This is a tricky one as I do like it but they are neighbours in the league both on 23 points each. This CAN mean a brilliant and electric game, but it can also mean sometimes its a bit stale. It all depends on how the teams approach the game, and that isn’t visible until after KO. Therefore my vote would be a trade around 35-45 minutes, IF 0-0, IF the game looks extremely aggressive from both ends. Otherwise I would just stay safe and keep my powder dry. Generally I wouldn’t touch games where the teams are next to each other in the league, but both teams here can score and concede equally well!! I favour the home team of course, but it needs to be cheap for me to ‘break’ one of my ‘rules’ (its more a guide, not a fixed rule) to trade teams which are league neighbours.

 

Chelsea v Newcastle – Hopefully most of you don’t need to hear my reason for rejecting this. For anyone who does need to hear it – I DO NOT TRADE CUP GAMES!! 🙂

 

Roma v Sampdoria – No I wouldn’t trade this one. I just don’t get any strong feelings about it when looking at the stats, they are next to each other in the league and have very similar stats. So I could see it going either way, or a draw, or a no score draw, or….. – In other words nothing stands out enough to me so easier to give that a miss.

Please remember – My comments are ONLY intended to be MY COMMENTS!! They are not instructions to do (or not do) anything. I am often asked by readers for my thoughts on a certain game, and sometimes I post them here for others to benefit from in case they were wondering similar things. That’s all this is, my thoughts. I know many traders who trade games with very different criteria to me, and they do perfectly well too. There is no “right” way. There is only YOUR way. My way is intended to make sure I win as much as possible, lose as little as possible, and most importantly of all…… to make sure I DO NOT REGRET ANY TRADE.

Whether a trade wins or loses is irrelevant to whether it was a “Good trade” or not. I have good losing trades, and bad winning trades. A good trade is one you would take on every day of the week, it makes mathematical sense and you are sure it’s a long term winning strategy. A bad trade is one you know you shouldn’t have taken, or you’re not sure you would do it every time it appeared. Stick to the good trades, and let the wins and losses organise themselves, the longer term you plan the better as that will balance out and reward your discipline in sticking to the sensible trades.

Hope you all have a good day!


Comments

A few football trading comments for today — 5 Comments

  1. Hi Tim,

    Thanks a lot for the today’s tips. For me it seems that lately few and few matches fully qualify for this method, according to the guidelines from your LTD tutorial (which of course make so much sense). And if you take into account that in such eligible games it might be that the outsider can still score the first goal which means scratching a loss…

    Are still LTD trades still your “bread and butter” when it comes to Football trading or trading in general?

    Have a nice day,
    Cipi

    • Hi Cipi, yes absolutely! However as you are seeing, ALL methods (this one included) go through “dry” patches, it’s not actually the method that’s going a bit dry for a while, its your luck, or just the variation of trying to nail a fixed approach onto an infinitely variable game in real life. Over the long term, these all flatten out into longer up trends, but recently it’s been a bit of a dry patch which doesn’t mean a losing patch but a period where many good picks have gone wrong as you said due to an early goal from the underdog, or whatever. My only advice for these periods is to MAKE SURE you manage your money to stick around for the long haul because these patches never last long! Don’t burn yourself out trying to force it. Just reduce stakes, keep making GOOD DECISIONS, and carry on as before. One day, maybe tomorrow, you will get a nice string of easy early winners at good prices and suddenly it all feels so easy you wonder why everyone isn’t doing it 😀

    • No karma! It was bad luck maybe, but the fundamental point about any “rule” is that “exceptions must exist”, otherwise it would not be just a general rule, it would be a fact of life and nobody would be trading on it as the outcome would be known 100%. This was a particularly annoying exception of course, they always are when the goal comes just after you exit. I had a string of these once longer than I have ever seen or heard of, it was something like 15-20 trades in a row (many years ago)! It was incredibly painful, and very very rare, but even then I was managing my staking so that I was never facing being out of the game, as the main rule of the game is to STAY IN IT for longer than the swings of fortune take to even out! 🙂

      From my perspective, you traded OUT. This is extremely good to see, it means you STUCK to the rules and this is incredibly hard to do (most new traders can’t do this, some take YEARS to properly learn to do it). So you did the right thing. Keep doing that, and although there will be bumps along the road, the road WILL go in the right direction.

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