Brief update

This is just a very quick update while I have internet access. I am away visiting a very sick relative but I did manage to complete the writing of the ebook (working almost until getting in the car!) before leaving. I am back home in a few days at which point I will need to do a quick proof read to check for typos etc, as well as get a couple of people to give it an impartial proof read for me (as I may miss many mistakes with my now square eyes) then I can make it available. The book is pushing 500 pages so this won’t be done …

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Racing UK Offer TODAY only

Hi all, you’re probably expecting an update on the ebook but that’s not what this post is for, although I am STILL writing I am sorry to say! This is just a very quick post after a friend of mine mentioned RUK’s ‘Bandwagon Offer’ announced today. Sorry, I call it that, they call it a “Black Friday” offer, you know, the day after Thanksgiving, that day we don’t celebrate in the UK and never effing have…… oh what’s the point, nobody cares what I think anyway… 😀 The point is – IF you trade horse racing or are planning on doing so soon, this is one hell of an offer. …

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Pre-Off trading ebook update…

Just a quickie post as I have had quite a few requests for an update in the past few days. The ebook doubled again (in size), so I am flat out burning the midnight oil. I am literally doing nothing else except sleeping and eating. It’s not far off now, but I do have some issues with payment processor to deal with once it’s complete so although I expect it to be completely written in around a week it doesn’t look like it will be actually available to buy for maybe another week after that, possibly two but hope not. (I refuse to allow people to steal this as has …

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A quick word about “Value” bets (or trades)

I have had a few comments recently regarding the concept of “Value” when trading on Betfair. I answered those queries but after responding to another one today I thought I would put up a quick post using my reply in case other readers are wondering about it too. Maybe it’s just a coincidence or maybe there is a forum thread buzzing somewhere on this topic lately, either way…..   “Just wondering about this whole “value” concept that I have read about so much over the last year or so and how this relates to the methods used to pick LTD selections. How do we know we are getting value with …

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Update

This is extremely painful to type, I was absolute certain that I would be posting an update last week to say “ebook ready!”. I am not going to bore you all with the reasons/excuses (no, they really are reasons, unavoidable bloody annoying ones too) but between some more health issues and a very serious family issue which will consume me for the next week, I won’t be able to write much if anything until around a week today, and I think it needs 1 week of very dedicated work, but given how things go for me, i should say make that 2 weeks to be safe. So I expect 2-3 …

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The Gods don’t want this damn pre-race book published!

I really can’t bear to spout more excuses, that’s what it feels like I have been doing so far. But I had to stick a post on here just to update those waiting for the pre-race stuff. I am utterly in disbelief at what has happened in the past few days, it’s really as if someone up there doens’t want this to happen. BUT IT WILL! That much I can promise, and it won’t be long either as it’s half-written. I got an infection which I have had before, but this time the antibiotics didn’t work like they did last time (2-3 days started to see clear up). This time …

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Bolivian Game

Hi all, I had an email from a reader just as I was leaving the desk, so as I typed a reply I thought it would be better to put it here in case anyone else considered the same football match for a LTD trade. Before I paste that, a quick word on the pre race book – Family came and went, I won’t go into detail here but it wasn’t a normal visit, there were some fireworks and stuff which meant they only left day before yesterday. I have been catching up on emails and stuff, and ready to get my head into the ebook to finish it. I …

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Pre Race Trading eBook delayed a bit more…..

I am very sorry and I know I will take some flak for it, but I don’t think this will be published in the next week as was planned. I was trying to get it finished by this weekend as I have family visiting next week so I won’t get much office time or trading time. The ebook is coming along nicely but I can’t rush it or skip anything so I will wait until family have buggered off before I get back to it. Sorry! I still promise it will be worth the wait! Cheers for now…  

Just a quickie…

International V Recife – Its a bit high priced, looks a good pick but I don’t think I would want in until the draw is priced below 4.2, so a chance to watch some of the game or wait for 20-30 minutes. If its 0-0 at 30 mins I would definitely be getting involved, but the away team could score (very tight defence for Inter though) so need to be a bit careful and ready to handle a 0-1 situation. I am working hard on the pre race horse racing ebook many of you will be pleased to hear. It’s got to be good, so it’s taking a LOOOOOONG while …

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Some Saturday LTD picks and….

Here are a few picks for tomorrow, I didn’t realise how long since I posted on here, funny how you get out of the habit of something and it’s easy to forget about for a while! I have been really busy away from trading too for a few months, trips here there and everywhere but back home and hoping to slow down a bit for summer this year. As it’s been a while, and as so many people have reported some great results after reading my In Play Racing ebook, I have decided to chuck out a decent discount just for the weekend so that a few of the more cash-strapped …

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A few football trading comments for today

Howdy all. A few readers have asked about a few games today so I am going to list a few which I think are worth a comment or two today: Sevilla v Getafe : The odds are currently 4.6 on the draw. I like the look of this. It’s not without risks, the main risks are an early goal from Getafe or a slow start from Sevilla. I would not oppose the idea of a trade from KO here, but a safer option would be to wait 15 minutes. For those with very limited banks, as always I would lean towards taking less risk and waiting for the circumstances to …

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Manure

Decent day. Only Man U left for me and not been electrified by the game but I think a goal or two is coming. I am laying Under 2.5 goals at 1.11. Cue a no score draw! Not bothered, good day either way, and there should be a goal or two. Hope you all survived the partying and once again, here’s to 2018 for all of us. Cheers for now.

Happy New Year Betfair Traders!

Well here begins another one! My NY celebrations fell apart at the last minute so like a sad old git I had a nice bottle of 10 year old red with my 20 year old wife (well ok, but she looked it after the wine) and she fell asleep in front of some mainstream TV dribble, so I buggered off to the office to do a few bits and check out the footie stats. How sad! Not really, starting the new year on a trading note is never a bad move in my book! So before covering a couple of the games I am interested in, I wanted to wish …

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Ho Ho Ho etc, a discount code, oh and some footie picks!

Well it’s been a while so I thought I would drop some thoughts for Boxing Day’s footie…… Spurs – at those odds I would be more tempted to lay Spurs than lay the draw! One to avoid I think, regardless of the obvious slaughter being quite possible, just nowhere near enough value in the odds and the stats suggest a shock is more than possible. West Brom v Everton – Two choices here, either a LTD at HT if 0-0, or a LTD at 2.6-2.8 if 0-0. The latter is my preference, bearing in mind goals may be sparse but I expect one in the second half if not the …

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Superb!

Perugia beaten 5-1!! Actually not a losing trade for people who stayed in until HT (longest I would ever wait, as soon as green appears I am out when away team score first). But 5-1!? This is a team who score 0.33 goals per game on average away from home! One to make a note of, not to trade in future but to be aware of so you don’t let the new away goal scoring average fool you into expecting goals! Palermo scored nice and early, didn’t beat the other team which looked likely but then we don’t care who wins, just who scores first. It looks like being a …

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You couldn’t make this stuff up!!!!

Away goal 5 minutes in. HA HA HA, A few of you have asked me to stop commenting on games they are trading as I always seem to “jinx” them. I often say I don’t believe in that stuff, but some days I do have to wonder! Well what we have now is (another) game which has bucked the stats trend (big time in this case!). This now presents other ops, this will be a game of goals. The away team’s usually defensive approach to games against stronger teams has obviously not played out here, which means the gloves are off and I fancy backing the home team now at …

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Another quickie

“Hi Tim Good to hear from you again. I too have been looking at Serie B and I think Perugia looks like a decent trade. KO in 5 mins! What do you think about that one? My only slight concern is that the away side could be a bit more generous when it comes to conceding goals.” Yes, no objections there at all…. At 3.7 to LTD it’s respectable that. If it was over 4 I might start getting a bit concerned about the away team not conceding too many, just as you spotted yourself there. but at 3.7, top plays bottom, there should surely be a goal, hopefully two! …

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Palermo

Yes, someone spotted this and it’s cheap, very cheap at 3.2 to LTD. There are negatives of course, scoring times are all over the place and away team could score, but at 3.2 and Palermo’s home scoring prowess, it’s a trade for me all day long. Almost a half priced one, with lots of green to come if/when Palermo score the first goal. …

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Laying unders on Thisted

Quite surprised this reached HT without a single goal. It won’t stay that way if stats are anything to go by! Away team are stronger but either could/should score so a lay of any unders market would be ok EDIT – BAAAAH sorry, goal while I was bloody inserting the stats image above! I missed it too, grr! …

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Pescara?

Currently 1-2 –  Someone asked me about pescara and yes the stats support at least a small bet on Pescara or lay of Cittadella. Its quite late on in the game now, so it’s very 50-50 for me, but the goal stats say quite a lot, and I would have fancied a draw based on their past results and the early goal from away team. Far from guaranteed this one but 3.33 goals scored at home on average (and unbeaten record) and for me this is a simple probabilities bet PS This post was just to answer a question, it’s not some kind of “tip” to suggest people dive in …

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