A quick word about “Value” bets (or trades)

I have had a few comments recently regarding the concept of “Value” when trading on Betfair. I answered those queries but after responding to another one today I thought I would put up a quick post using my reply in case other readers are wondering about it too. Maybe it’s just a coincidence or maybe there is a forum thread buzzing somewhere on this topic lately, either way…..   “Just wondering about this whole “value” concept that I have read about so much over the last year or so and how this relates to the methods used to pick LTD selections. How do we know we are getting value with …

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The Gods don’t want this damn pre-race book published!

I really can’t bear to spout more excuses, that’s what it feels like I have been doing so far. But I had to stick a post on here just to update those waiting for the pre-race stuff. I am utterly in disbelief at what has happened in the past few days, it’s really as if someone up there doens’t want this to happen. BUT IT WILL! That much I can promise, and it won’t be long either as it’s half-written. I got an infection which I have had before, but this time the antibiotics didn’t work like they did last time (2-3 days started to see clear up). This time …

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Bolivian Game

Hi all, I had an email from a reader just as I was leaving the desk, so as I typed a reply I thought it would be better to put it here in case anyone else considered the same football match for a LTD trade. Before I paste that, a quick word on the pre race book – Family came and went, I won’t go into detail here but it wasn’t a normal visit, there were some fireworks and stuff which meant they only left day before yesterday. I have been catching up on emails and stuff, and ready to get my head into the ebook to finish it. I …

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Just a quickie…

International V Recife – Its a bit high priced, looks a good pick but I don’t think I would want in until the draw is priced below 4.2, so a chance to watch some of the game or wait for 20-30 minutes. If its 0-0 at 30 mins I would definitely be getting involved, but the away team could score (very tight defence for Inter though) so need to be a bit careful and ready to handle a 0-1 situation. I am working hard on the pre race horse racing ebook many of you will be pleased to hear. It’s got to be good, so it’s taking a LOOOOOONG while …

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Some Saturday LTD picks and….

Here are a few picks for tomorrow, I didn’t realise how long since I posted on here, funny how you get out of the habit of something and it’s easy to forget about for a while! I have been really busy away from trading too for a few months, trips here there and everywhere but back home and hoping to slow down a bit for summer this year. As it’s been a while, and as so many people have reported some great results after reading my In Play Racing ebook, I have decided to chuck out a decent discount just for the weekend so that a few of the more cash-strapped …

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A few football trading comments for today

Howdy all. A few readers have asked about a few games today so I am going to list a few which I think are worth a comment or two today: Sevilla v Getafe : The odds are currently 4.6 on the draw. I like the look of this. It’s not without risks, the main risks are an early goal from Getafe or a slow start from Sevilla. I would not oppose the idea of a trade from KO here, but a safer option would be to wait 15 minutes. For those with very limited banks, as always I would lean towards taking less risk and waiting for the circumstances to …

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Happy New Year Betfair Traders!

Well here begins another one! My NY celebrations fell apart at the last minute so like a sad old git I had a nice bottle of 10 year old red with my 20 year old wife (well ok, but she looked it after the wine) and she fell asleep in front of some mainstream TV dribble, so I buggered off to the office to do a few bits and check out the footie stats. How sad! Not really, starting the new year on a trading note is never a bad move in my book! So before covering a couple of the games I am interested in, I wanted to wish …

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Ho Ho Ho etc, a discount code, oh and some footie picks!

Well it’s been a while so I thought I would drop some thoughts for Boxing Day’s footie…… Spurs – at those odds I would be more tempted to lay Spurs than lay the draw! One to avoid I think, regardless of the obvious slaughter being quite possible, just nowhere near enough value in the odds and the stats suggest a shock is more than possible. West Brom v Everton – Two choices here, either a LTD at HT if 0-0, or a LTD at 2.6-2.8 if 0-0. The latter is my preference, bearing in mind goals may be sparse but I expect one in the second half if not the …

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Superb!

Perugia beaten 5-1!! Actually not a losing trade for people who stayed in until HT (longest I would ever wait, as soon as green appears I am out when away team score first). But 5-1!? This is a team who score 0.33 goals per game on average away from home! One to make a note of, not to trade in future but to be aware of so you don’t let the new away goal scoring average fool you into expecting goals! Palermo scored nice and early, didn’t beat the other team which looked likely but then we don’t care who wins, just who scores first. It looks like being a …

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You couldn’t make this stuff up!!!!

Away goal 5 minutes in. HA HA HA, A few of you have asked me to stop commenting on games they are trading as I always seem to “jinx” them. I often say I don’t believe in that stuff, but some days I do have to wonder! Well what we have now is (another) game which has bucked the stats trend (big time in this case!). This now presents other ops, this will be a game of goals. The away team’s usually defensive approach to games against stronger teams has obviously not played out here, which means the gloves are off and I fancy backing the home team now at …

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Another quickie

“Hi Tim Good to hear from you again. I too have been looking at Serie B and I think Perugia looks like a decent trade. KO in 5 mins! What do you think about that one? My only slight concern is that the away side could be a bit more generous when it comes to conceding goals.” Yes, no objections there at all…. At 3.7 to LTD it’s respectable that. If it was over 4 I might start getting a bit concerned about the away team not conceding too many, just as you spotted yourself there. but at 3.7, top plays bottom, there should surely be a goal, hopefully two! …

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Palermo

Yes, someone spotted this and it’s cheap, very cheap at 3.2 to LTD. There are negatives of course, scoring times are all over the place and away team could score, but at 3.2 and Palermo’s home scoring prowess, it’s a trade for me all day long. Almost a half priced one, with lots of green to come if/when Palermo score the first goal. …

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Laying unders on Thisted

Quite surprised this reached HT without a single goal. It won’t stay that way if stats are anything to go by! Away team are stronger but either could/should score so a lay of any unders market would be ok EDIT – BAAAAH sorry, goal while I was bloody inserting the stats image above! I missed it too, grr! …

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Pescara?

Currently 1-2 –  Someone asked me about pescara and yes the stats support at least a small bet on Pescara or lay of Cittadella. Its quite late on in the game now, so it’s very 50-50 for me, but the goal stats say quite a lot, and I would have fancied a draw based on their past results and the early goal from away team. Far from guaranteed this one but 3.33 goals scored at home on average (and unbeaten record) and for me this is a simple probabilities bet PS This post was just to answer a question, it’s not some kind of “tip” to suggest people dive in …

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A few more from J

“Excellent post Tim. I have a couple of trades that I am looking at today that you have not mentioned so I just thought I’d ask what you think of the following trades: *1.30 Club Brugges KO trade. *2.30 Gornik Zabrze (Polish League) – after 30 mins if the game is lively *7.00 Rosenborg KO trade – yes Sarpsborg are one team below, but Rosenborg are way ahead on points, have an excellent H2H record against them, have an excellent home record, score heavily and Sarpsborg score very few away goals.” Righty ho, very quick look at these…. 1.30 – I am aware I am typing this at 1.45 so …

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Sunday 1 Oct

Had a few more questions for today’s busy coupon so will answer with my thoughts below. Before that let me confirm that yesterday wasn’t a great day on the football for me either. These things happen as most people know but a few of you newbies need to remember this is all about probabilities, not certainties! If you want certainties, well I don’t know where to suggest you go because I am yet to find any business or any area of life where there are absolute certainties! A job is certainly a lot closer to being a certainty (of getting paid) than trading in any market, IF you look at day to …

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Saturday games questions

I have had a few people asking me to comment on some of their shortlisted games so here goes… Levante v Deportivo Alaves – I agree with you Al this is one of those you could be forgiven for ignoring based on the unimpressive stats of the home team, but it’s one of those where the away team is so much more dismal that the home team begins to look quite strong in my view. It may not be full of goals, but this is a game I would likely trade, perhaps a bit differently than a bog standard KO LTD though. Levante are not on blistering form, that much is …

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In Play horses and Lille

Well firstly the French footie –  Lille was mentioned to me by a few people today for various reasons, but for those who saw it as a “lay caen” or “back lille” opp, I would certainly agree with either. there was a better way (totally different) to trade it but I was busying around with horses today so I didnt look at it until a while after the 0-1 goal. The small back bet didn’t pan out but that’s fine, they can’t always and this was one I would take any time. You can see why I stake small this time of year though as I do always feel early season …

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New article and IR racing trading ebook

I have just finished slogging out the last ebook I will be taking on for a little while. I have added an article on the site about the same subject – In Play Racing Trading. I know a fair number of my readers have been doing football for a long while but have been waiting for my racing ebooks before dabbling in the horsey markets. I take that as a compliment from those of you who have been patiently nudging me along for the past, what, 3 years?! Once again, since I know you are all signed up to the ezine list or faceslap page, I have created a 20% …

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