Ugh…

I had just entered my lay U2.5 on Verona when that damn goal went in! One of those days for bad timing, especially with Brighton called off. 1.5 for U2.5 goals after just 20 mins of play, that was silly price and I missed it. Oh well, I find it quite interesting that despite the stronger team being ahead quite early, and priced at 1.37, the draw price is only at 5, just under in fact. That’s not what I would call normal. Normal for teams like this would be at least 6-7, sometimes nearer 9 or 10. Its not enough for me to feel sure there is a fixed …

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Ha, OK well…

I am laying again then! 0-3. Stats and league positions, and the odds too, suggest goals from home team. I nearly backed over 4.5 goals earlier, wish I had now as this has the look of a 5 goaler! I have looked at the list of lowly Italian games now in play. I was thinking, what a great time of year for mafioso to make some money after buying their girlfriends all those Rolexes 😀 – Ok its a silly hunch, but I am going to watch with interest, I wonder how many of these games will get a goal and then end as a draw. Maybe none, maybe all …

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Friday 30 December

Hull – Poss HT LTD if level Brighton – I like the look of this. LTD from KO Weird – stats on Newcastle are not quite as nice as Brighton’s above, but the draw price is 6 instead of 4?! I would be tempted to back draw for 15 minutes there. Not going to as they could score early, but unlikely. Rochdale  – 27 min LTD if level (that’s extra safe. I would not be against LTD from 15 mins but need to find a live stream really to get in much before half hour.) Verona v Cesena – hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm! Bearing in mind it was an Italian LegaB game that …

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Villa

Laying the draw at 3.3. Good price and Villa have turned up to do some scoring I think. Thats what the first few minutes look like anyway. P.S. – Stats obviously have been looked at too, not just trading on the game play, but stats plus game play suggests its a trade for me

Thu 29 December

Well I came down with a monster of a headache last night and didn’t end up trading, but a look back at the games against my comments yesterday shows I picked a bad day to ignore my own picks! Oh well. Very uninteresting coupon today. Villa game might interest me in play, especially if away team go ahead. I have only had a quick look at stats but if I had to bet on a scoreline there it would be something like 2-1 or possibly 2-0 if their defence holds. If its 0-0 at HT I may have a dabble, but will need another check of stats first as haven’t …

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Wed 28 December

Not much of a coupon today but a few observations.. St Johnstone v Rangers – Rangers have been overbacked in my view, stats suggest a different story to the odds. I don’t think I would oppose Rangers at 0-0 but at 0-1 to them I might and at 0-2 I am pretty sure I will. Celtic – incredibly short. Yes they are strong, but not as strong as these odds suggest. Not sure there is much green in it but I intend to play with this game a bit if I can watch a good stream of it. I might back draw for 15 from start, longer possibly depending on …

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Tuesday 27 December

Doh, sorry I typed this an hour or two ago and thought I had posted it, came back to office and noticed it was still sitting ready to click post…. Well after a tricky day yesterday which nearly ended quite red, I am going to play extra safe today by using half stakes and looking for only the best opportunities. I may actually do this until 3rd Jan when all this festive stuff should be well out of the footballer’s systems. Bright v QPR – A good example of caution here as this is a very nice pick normally. I am looking for extra ways a trade can go wrong …

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Final update

Well, Man City saved the day in a pretty big way. i couldn’t believe the odds got down as far as they did, 1.1 or near if i remember. I was laying it quite heavily, at least one goal had to come, although I wasn’t impressed with the play again and I actually think there was a lot of luck in this game. It was slow and dull play, in fact Hull impressed me so much more I had a small bet on them to green if they scored as I really thought they would in the first half. Just not quite got the finishers needed. Man City got a …

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Update

Well, that was far from a great day! A few more ops may come up yet, but it’s most likely to end up red today no matter what ops come up this evening. I can’t remember the last time I had such a run of losing trades in a week let alone a day. More to the point, I felt VERY strongly about a few of them, all based on stats of course. Part of me thinks it was just an unlucky day and these come and go, but the fact that some of the results (many) were so surprising and contrary to the stats, has me wondering if Boxing …

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Zulte Waregem

I have exited, pretty disappointed in that game. Their H2H is unbelievable: What are the chances of 0-0 based on that history?! Well by all accounts today the chances are a lot higher than normal, but I am laying U0.5 as I can’t have this scoreline! It’s got be the most unlikely 0-0 out of all the (8%) of games which end 0-0 globally each year! …

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I made a mistake here…

Just to show how easy it is to overlook one thing, and how important that is when approaching things like I do, i.e. looking for ANY reason to reject a trade… Oostende v Eupen – I looked at the goal stats and form quite quickly and it looks great: 2.5 goals per game scored by home team, 2.5 goals per game conceded by away team. Great home form, crap away form, looks a peach doesn’t it. So after it went 0-2 I wondered if I had missed something, not necessarily as footie goes like this sometimes as we all know, but I thought I would check again. And I did …

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Exit Oostende

Traded out of this back bet for small loss. Stats are awesome, but the play was anything but. Eupen seem stronger than I expected and Oostende seem a lot less slick than their stats suggest, nothing exciting going on and don’t even look like a team who shouldn’t be 1-0 down, so I am out for a small red and happy to wait and see what happens there, or probably leave it alone regardless.  

Backed Oostende

Caught on the hop 3 mins from KO. They should be annihilating Eupen here, but I haven’t bet too heavy as games that open like this can go a bit against the stats, and of course with Oostende now rushing to set the score straight, they could get caught again. But I am backing them and will back them again if they were to 0-2 down

Monday 26th December

Well yesterday was a cracker of a day in the end, even though most of my trades were half stakes or less, and lots of experimental bits and pieces. I traded various leagues I have never touched before, Morocco, Kuwait, Israel and others. Plenty of goals around but none of what I was doing felt strong enough to post about but it all accumulated into a very nice day in the end. I am sure all you xmas fans were stuffing your faces with Turkey and chocolates anyway so I gave my arm a rest as I would have been typing about 5-10 posts an hour if I listed all …

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Perhaps slightly naughty win

Well I said 60 mins but bang on the turn of 60 mins there was a fairly long injury break. It was end to end with blocked shots from both teams so definitely looked like goals. My plan was to see if the game picked up after HT team talk, as it was dead first half but home team are far superior team. As I had said 60 mins on here, I felt obliged to stick to that but I didnt, gave it 5 more minutes which is, in pure terms anyway, a break of a rule. But given the odds didn’t come down half as quick as I expected, …

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