Friday 6 Jan

Small coupon again today for footie. Espanyol – Part of me thinks the price is so cheap it’s worth a LTD from KO, but I am resisting that idea just because I think it has a reasonable chance of being 0-0 at HT. A LTD from HT seems like a better option, or even safer, wait until 60 minutes and if level with a goal or two each, LTD, or if no goals, a lay of U0.5 or 1.5 depending on play and prices.   Mallorca – IF there is an early goal (within first 20 minutes) I will lay U2.5, trading out at HT if no more goals. If …

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Thursday 5th Jan

Nothing at all today. The only thing I looked into was the Athletic Bilbao v Barcelona game. The stats are way out of whack with the odds. A lay of Barcelona until HT looks like a value net in some ways, but opposing Barca is something I have never done and not sure I would today just to find one trade. Will be interested in how the game goes here though

Wednesday 4th Jan

Slim pickings today, a day off is in order perhaps. The Tottenham game will either be a goalfest or a cagey one. I am sure Spurs will badly want the win as 3 points will put them right up near the top, and they have great home form. On the other hand Chelsea has a great defensive set up and will probably do a good job of keeping Spurs at bay at least for a while. So it’s either a leave alone job, a wait and hope for ops in play or maybe a lay of under0.5 goals for 30 minutes from KO. This lay can be had for 1.09 …

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Update

A lay of bournemouth looks in order, if trading out after 1 goal. a back of arsenal if waiting/hoping for two. odds suggest bournemouth have it in the bag, and i havent seen any of the game to know any different, but stats alone suggest opposing bournemouth at these prices 10-15 min LTD on stoke just after HT …

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Tuesday 3 January

Lots of cup games today so very little to choose from. Stoke v Watford – goal stats nowhere near strong enough for a KO LTD, but if its level at half time a LTD from 45-65 minutes would be my approach. Bournemouth v Arsenal – Again, it may well see early goals but I couldn’t trade this without seeing some of the game. Purely on stats I would be hoping for a level scoreline around 70 minutes for a LTD to run to the finish. Late goals look likely, so LTD or Unders ideas would all be viable if it’s level late on.

Monday 2nd January

Well I am glad I stuck to half stakes yesterday, will do so again for a few days I think, then hopefully things will settle down and stats will have a long overdue reliable spell! The unders lay on yesterday’s Chester game was a good one, amazing that Chester didn’t score but as expected, there were still 3 goals in the game and could have been a lot more based on the play. Today’s Doncaster game looks similar… Note that Stevenage are priced at 5+, which is value in my view, but I am not betting on them as I am not a flat better, not very often anyway. But …

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Happy New Year!

Well mine has started well, connection issues again. BT did a great job of installing my optical fibre connection, through a large tree and across through neighbours garden to the pole. The only problem seems to be, trees grow. Apparently this is quite normal. But optical fibre cables don’t grow at the same rate, so I now have a very stretched cable which doesn’t like strong winds, which we had last night. Its up and down, so I will have to get the plonkers out yet again. Also please note I am on travels for the next couple of weeks. I will be trading as and when I can but …

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Stevenage

Colchester 0-2 up. One of those days where I feel its a list of shockers, but at 1.22 I have to lay Colchester for part of the long term plan, gut feel says leave these alone today, its new year’s eve and several results already showed this is an odd day for footie, but i can afford to lose in my road to green so i must take em. Cue 0-3 😀 …

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I had to change the title of this post

Wydad – Moroccan game. At 0-2 it was a nailed on trade. At 0-3 it was too. I was about to type about how this is a perfect example of a good, losing trade. But since I started typing they scored two quick goals so i had to change it. What a weird game. I may as well post the screenshots I used to make my decision on this when it went 0-2, and why I laid again at 1.03 when it went 0-3…. League LEADER playing second from bottom. AT HOME. Far more aggressive attacks for home team. Stats need no comment, if you had to pick a winner …

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2-0 Verona

To think I was about a millisecond from matching a strong lay of U2.5, its quite frustrating really! I have laid them again, but these are only small as I have no reason at all to think the away team should come back, other than it being a rigged game – forgeddaboutit…….! The stats all say a Verona win, but why so much money against it? The unders was the bet to cover both scenarios as stats were good with that, but a rigged game is also, as I have never seen a rigged game without goals, they need the goals to let their second cousins get in without spoofing …

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Ugh…

I had just entered my lay U2.5 on Verona when that damn goal went in! One of those days for bad timing, especially with Brighton called off. 1.5 for U2.5 goals after just 20 mins of play, that was silly price and I missed it. Oh well, I find it quite interesting that despite the stronger team being ahead quite early, and priced at 1.37, the draw price is only at 5, just under in fact. That’s not what I would call normal. Normal for teams like this would be at least 6-7, sometimes nearer 9 or 10. Its not enough for me to feel sure there is a fixed …

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Ha, OK well…

I am laying again then! 0-3. Stats and league positions, and the odds too, suggest goals from home team. I nearly backed over 4.5 goals earlier, wish I had now as this has the look of a 5 goaler! I have looked at the list of lowly Italian games now in play. I was thinking, what a great time of year for mafioso to make some money after buying their girlfriends all those Rolexes 😀 – Ok its a silly hunch, but I am going to watch with interest, I wonder how many of these games will get a goal and then end as a draw. Maybe none, maybe all …

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Friday 30 December

Hull – Poss HT LTD if level Brighton – I like the look of this. LTD from KO Weird – stats on Newcastle are not quite as nice as Brighton’s above, but the draw price is 6 instead of 4?! I would be tempted to back draw for 15 minutes there. Not going to as they could score early, but unlikely. Rochdale  – 27 min LTD if level (that’s extra safe. I would not be against LTD from 15 mins but need to find a live stream really to get in much before half hour.) Verona v Cesena – hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm! Bearing in mind it was an Italian LegaB game that …

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