I had to change the title of this post

Wydad – Moroccan game. At 0-2 it was a nailed on trade. At 0-3 it was too. I was about to type about how this is a perfect example of a good, losing trade. But since I started typing they scored two quick goals so i had to change it. What a weird game. I may as well post the screenshots I used to make my decision on this when it went 0-2, and why I laid again at 1.03 when it went 0-3…. League LEADER playing second from bottom. AT HOME. Far more aggressive attacks for home team. Stats need no comment, if you had to pick a winner …

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2-0 Verona

To think I was about a millisecond from matching a strong lay of U2.5, its quite frustrating really! I have laid them again, but these are only small as I have no reason at all to think the away team should come back, other than it being a rigged game – forgeddaboutit…….! The stats all say a Verona win, but why so much money against it? The unders was the bet to cover both scenarios as stats were good with that, but a rigged game is also, as I have never seen a rigged game without goals, they need the goals to let their second cousins get in without spoofing …

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Ugh…

I had just entered my lay U2.5 on Verona when that damn goal went in! One of those days for bad timing, especially with Brighton called off. 1.5 for U2.5 goals after just 20 mins of play, that was silly price and I missed it. Oh well, I find it quite interesting that despite the stronger team being ahead quite early, and priced at 1.37, the draw price is only at 5, just under in fact. That’s not what I would call normal. Normal for teams like this would be at least 6-7, sometimes nearer 9 or 10. Its not enough for me to feel sure there is a fixed …

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Ha, OK well…

I am laying again then! 0-3. Stats and league positions, and the odds too, suggest goals from home team. I nearly backed over 4.5 goals earlier, wish I had now as this has the look of a 5 goaler! I have looked at the list of lowly Italian games now in play. I was thinking, what a great time of year for mafioso to make some money after buying their girlfriends all those Rolexes 😀 – Ok its a silly hunch, but I am going to watch with interest, I wonder how many of these games will get a goal and then end as a draw. Maybe none, maybe all …

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Sniff sniff

OK no idea on this, but just for future reference, these sorts of games in Italian low leagues always have me a tad curious. The ones I did well on (which were almost certainly rigged) always tended to have goals close together in the middle like this, and always saw a team go ahead 1 or 2 goals, before coming back level and staying that way. Again, not accusing anyone here in relation to this particular game, but four goals in the middle like that and no others, at least gets my interest. Need to keep an eye on these lega pro and lega b games! …

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Friday 30 December

Hull – Poss HT LTD if level Brighton – I like the look of this. LTD from KO Weird – stats on Newcastle are not quite as nice as Brighton’s above, but the draw price is 6 instead of 4?! I would be tempted to back draw for 15 minutes there. Not going to as they could score early, but unlikely. Rochdale  – 27 min LTD if level (that’s extra safe. I would not be against LTD from 15 mins but need to find a live stream really to get in much before half hour.) Verona v Cesena – hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm! Bearing in mind it was an Italian LegaB game that …

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I love Portugal

For holidays that is! haha, I must stop even looking at their games! OK I hardly bet anything on the braga game so it hasn’t cost me with Villa game winning, but despite over 50 dangerous attacks I am yet again amazed that Braga couldn’t stick one in that big white square thing! I greened Villa game and am on the unders market, semi greened but will be interesting to see if someone sneaks one at last minute here, 88 mins gone currently, but something tells me there is another one here, obviously too late to put money on that statement, but i have a bit riding on it already

Braga

Not a league game, but had a small back bet on Braga at high 7s. attacking well and busy, hoping they level the game up before its too late to green up. Porto is tempting too but not much value in prices, I just dont think it will end 1-1 Villa game went dull as ditchwater shortly after I entered, i stuck with it and will do until 1.8 but with Grealish going off it’s probably wiser to get out really

Villa

Laying the draw at 3.3. Good price and Villa have turned up to do some scoring I think. Thats what the first few minutes look like anyway. P.S. – Stats obviously have been looked at too, not just trading on the game play, but stats plus game play suggests its a trade for me

Thu 29 December

Well I came down with a monster of a headache last night and didn’t end up trading, but a look back at the games against my comments yesterday shows I picked a bad day to ignore my own picks! Oh well. Very uninteresting coupon today. Villa game might interest me in play, especially if away team go ahead. I have only had a quick look at stats but if I had to bet on a scoreline there it would be something like 2-1 or possibly 2-0 if their defence holds. If its 0-0 at HT I may have a dabble, but will need another check of stats first as haven’t …

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Wed 28 December

Not much of a coupon today but a few observations.. St Johnstone v Rangers – Rangers have been overbacked in my view, stats suggest a different story to the odds. I don’t think I would oppose Rangers at 0-0 but at 0-1 to them I might and at 0-2 I am pretty sure I will. Celtic – incredibly short. Yes they are strong, but not as strong as these odds suggest. Not sure there is much green in it but I intend to play with this game a bit if I can watch a good stream of it. I might back draw for 15 from start, longer possibly depending on …

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Genk

Throwaway job, but a look at Gent’s late scoring stats suggest 1.07 might offer a bit of a value. Obviously 2 goals needed and it will be late so hard to green up on only one goal, but the stats are tempting me into a little lay of Genk here. …

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Tuesday 27 December

Doh, sorry I typed this an hour or two ago and thought I had posted it, came back to office and noticed it was still sitting ready to click post…. Well after a tricky day yesterday which nearly ended quite red, I am going to play extra safe today by using half stakes and looking for only the best opportunities. I may actually do this until 3rd Jan when all this festive stuff should be well out of the footballer’s systems. Bright v QPR – A good example of caution here as this is a very nice pick normally. I am looking for extra ways a trade can go wrong …

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Final update

Well, Man City saved the day in a pretty big way. i couldn’t believe the odds got down as far as they did, 1.1 or near if i remember. I was laying it quite heavily, at least one goal had to come, although I wasn’t impressed with the play again and I actually think there was a lot of luck in this game. It was slow and dull play, in fact Hull impressed me so much more I had a small bet on them to green if they scored as I really thought they would in the first half. Just not quite got the finishers needed. Man City got a …

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Update

Well, that was far from a great day! A few more ops may come up yet, but it’s most likely to end up red today no matter what ops come up this evening. I can’t remember the last time I had such a run of losing trades in a week let alone a day. More to the point, I felt VERY strongly about a few of them, all based on stats of course. Part of me thinks it was just an unlucky day and these come and go, but the fact that some of the results (many) were so surprising and contrary to the stats, has me wondering if Boxing …

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