Might be trading today

I am still away from home and caught in floods which are affecting many of us in the UK, so not sure if I will be trading today but I have managed to get online to do some stats and there are at least a few games which interest me today. If i manage to get my internet connection stable enough to enter the markets, I will update with trades later on.

Sunday 17th December

I did have a trade picked out yesterday, two actually. Unfortunately I broke down in my car and couldn’t get home in time. Suffice to say, they were both winners, AAAGH! Sometimes Betfair trading can really test your patience and nerves, and the last few weeks has certainly been like that for me. I am away for the next two weeks visiting family. I will have my computer with me but won’t be trading as much as usual, I will hopefully get on some winners though and will keep the blog updated as best I can.

Football Trading Update

Well I now have eyes for MK Dons and Cardiff v Peterboro. Both are absolutely fantastic stats-wise. As I type this MK Dons have just scored and only had half of my trade matched so it will be a small winner, although I will hold out for a second goal to hopefully green at least £50 from it. The stats suggest thats a safe choice. didnt hold out, took a small profit in the end. Cardiff – no goals so far, 15 minutes in, so I am drip-feeding my trade into the markets, rather than all in at high odds (5 ish currently), i am dropping in £100 then a …

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Lay The Draw Betfair Trades Today

Cardiff v Peterboro – Bit pricey so may have to watch and hope there is no goal early, maybe let odds come down to 5 before entering, but these stats are awesome http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/12/15/england/championship/cardiff-city-fc/peterborough-united-fc/1295619/head2head/ Montpellier v Bastia – Slightly borderline this, looks good but not the best pick I have ever seen as Bastia can hold tight at the back against some respectable teams. May go for it, may watch some of the game to decide. WIll update later. Had a few other picks but have ruled them all out as too many borderline trades makes for a bad day of betfair trading in my experience!

Saturday 15th December

Well I have decided today is the day to get back into my football trading. There is an impressive coupon today, and I can’t sit and watch it all when there are so many opportunities at first glance. I have seen around 6 or 7 potential LTDs (lay the draws) which I will look more closely at shortly and decide which I am going to trade. With some big games there should be a chance to make some books (dutching and bookmaking) too. Updates to follow

Final Update – the worst trading day in 5 years

Well, it doesn’t come any worse than this. As I said earlier, I decided the Fenerbahce game looked good on stats, but i was going to watch the opening 5-10 minutes to see if they were playing well and really up for the win. BANG. Goal. Hmm, looks like i missed it, but the away team then equalised. That made it a cheap trade with draw odds of 4. So in I went. No more goals, no more goals, no more goals…. The odds came down to 2, and I placed a stop loss in Bet Angel at 1.83 which is my lowest stop loss. it looked like goals were …

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Pen-ultimate trading update

£104 greened Juventus goal. Man City got the second goal I was expecting to level the match at 2-2. 5 minutes to play, do i trade out or hold nerve for a full win profit? Hmm, nope, taking it. £168 greened. Gonna be a heavy loss on Feyenoord though, around £500. 🙁 Total loss for the day was £298, a bad day in the office, but could have been a lot worse, the annoying thing is how it could have been a stonking winner of a day. It all hinged on one tiny decision, to exit my Feyenoord trade for the back price instead of the lay price, just to …

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un******* believable…..

finally got the goal in Breda v Feyenoord game. Hooray, went to BetAngel to trade out, ordered my bet to exit, £10 of it matched and suspended, the swines equalised before I could get out. Now facing a heavy red but there are 3 strikers on for breda and I am sure there will be more goals in this game, so I am breaking my own rules (never do that, except if you are me) and staying in. This is a green finish, has to be.

9th December update

Man City got the goal, thanks to Mancini who FINALLY brought Tevez on, goal created and banged home in messy style. Odds jumped fairly nicely, could take £40 green, but with Tevez being just brought on, going to give it a little while longer to see if the game picks up in City’s favour. Hopefully Man U don’t score during that time, and they could, but you pays your money and takes your choice, and thats mine.

9th Dec update

I have backed Correct Score of 1-4 to Man U, just for a tenner at a whopping 28-1 odds, a small hedge. Also backed £6 @ 50-1 on scoreline of 4-2 to Man U, another wee hedge. I will have a whole garden soon 😀 Decided to LTD at Palermo v Juventus. 0-0 @ 42 minutes, and Juventus are on great form away from home, and they score the great majority of the goals in the second half. Today could be costly, or highly profitable, but either way its going to be run to the line I think. Feyenoord and Breda game just needs a goal, and loads of shots …

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9th December Update – Trades after all!

Well I had no pre-arranged Betfair football trades today but as I had some work to do at my desk, I decided to watch a live stream of Man City v Man U even though I don’t usually touch derby games like these, but worth watching anyway. Despite Man City appearing in complete control of the game, with most of the possession, Man U got a goal. I checked the odds and they hardly moved. I decided then that if Man U get another and go 2-0 up, I will lay them as I fancy Man City to score in the game and any goal will mean some green if …

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9th December

Volume looked low last night on many games and those with more than £20,000 liquidity didn’t look like ideal picks. £20,000 is my minimum for me to feel safe about staking a few hundred quid and being able to get out when necessary, have been caught out before on low volume games and exiting the trade can be hairy, often giving up lots of ticks in the odds just to get my exit trade matched. This morning shows a bit more volume on a few games, interested in a Dutch game which looks tradeable, not certain yet. Also possibly a French one and Turkish one, will update later when I …

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8th December Final Update

Well, disappointingly there were no goals in the Almeria game which surprised me. I will usually watch a game I am trading but I didn’t have time to sit and watch it today, so I was about to exit when the draw odds came down to 2, but thankfully the away team scored in the 65th minute just before I exited, and I took a small loss of £70 to get out. Many traders would stay in at that point as the odds on the draw would continue to rise very quickly at that stage of a game, even though it was the underdog who was ahead, but I have …

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8th December Further update

Well a few minutes later, it was 2-3 in the Swansea game. I was tempted to hold out for a really big win if they got another, but I have done that a lot before and kissed goodbye to the profit, so instead I took a respectable £80 greened which is four time my total risk on the entire bet, can’t grumble at that.   That makes up for the lack of other trades, Will update later with result of Almeria game …

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8th December update

Well, within 1 minute of posting the last message, Swansea got one back to bring game to 1-3 against Nowich. I could take £30 greened now, but going to hang on for a bit as I fancy them to get another. If they don’t I can probably get out around break even later on, but could do with a bit more than £30 greened on this one, especially with so few trades today which is disappointing for such a busy coupon.