Monday 30 September

No trades today. I had a close look at Everton as the odds suggest it is a possible trade, but the stats and form suggest differently. In fact on the stats, if I was trading that game I would be backing the draw, not laying it! (In the old days I would be doing exactly that now too!)

Update

UN Effing Believable?! So a team which has scored TEN goals in its last TWO home games, against MUCH BETTER teams, can’t score before 70 minutes against this rubbish team, but the rubbish team manages to get one?!!!! Well, luck always seems to play a fairly major role in my trading, always has done and always will I suppose. Anyway, the goal helped and I wasn’t waiting around, I got straight out for £170 loss, as opposed to four times that if the favourite gets a goal. Hmmm, trading can be frustrating!

Update

Well yesterday’s trade was a winner, a pretty unimpressive one though. A goal on 50 minutes and the odds only went out to around 6.8 ish. That’s usually a sign of either lack of money in the market (not true in this case) or a sure sign that gamblers who are watching the game don’t expect it to finish 1-0!! In other words, time to make a sharp exit!! So I got out with a mere £70 profit on a £200 lay, not the best but a win is a win. Havent checked todays games yet, not been feeling great so will get to it in a bit. …

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Update

Both tempters which I turned down are 1-0 at HT, so two winners that would have been if I hadn’t ruled them out. I do so very much wish that didn’t bug me!!!!!! I noticed Roda JC v Heerenveen is 3-3 with 15 minutes to go. Any game with 6 goals and 15 minutes to go, must surely have another goal to come. With the draw at a nice round zero, I thought it worthy of an evens lay bet. Will trade out if a goal comes in. Risk £100, worth a shot I think, have done this before with success most of the time, not always though of course.

Saturday 21st September

I like the look of Sp Lisbon v Rio Ave. In particular I like the fact that they have both played the same team in the past few weeks (Arouca) – Sp Lisbon beat them 5-1, but Rio Ave lost 1-0 to them. This is a great piece of intelligence, a great way to compare two teams against the same barometer of ability. However, I am VERY reluctantly disregarding the trade and not trading it. Purely down to the lack of stats available on goal scoring for both teams, the stats that are there look bad for a trade, but I know they are pretty meaningless due to such little …

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Trading update

Well that’s me out of that trade before 35 mins 🙂 I waited for the second goal as I expected one and thankfully it came just as the stats suggested. There will no doubt be more, but I am out with £170 greened from a £200 lay bet. Happy with that! Onwards and upwards

One trade today

Munchen Gladbach v Braunschweig – This is high priced but looks a strong pick to me. Munchen Gladbach have scored no less than 7 goals in just their first two games, so I am expecting a good winner on this trade. I have gone heavier than usual here, especially when taking the price into account. I have laid the draw for £200

Well crossing fingers didn’t help!

One of those big surprise results, typical! The stats screamed a home win, an easy one too, the survey of football people on Futbol24 said 90% in favour of a home win, but its 2-0 to the dog currently!! Very weird, but thats early season footie for ya. No real harm done, £200 lay bet and I got out with a £20 loss, so no complaints really. I have backed Malmo at silly odds for a few quid, just in case they get a few in final minutes (as they sometimes do exactly that), but it’s onwards and upwards for trading another day