Well it was a dodgy one in the end, an ar5e-twitcher as they are known in the business 😀 But when the red card went against Villareal i knew there would be at least a break even or a small green on the cards, so i waited a while and managed to exit with £60 green. better than a kick in the chops i suppose.
0-1 to Getafe already! Where’s that damn COIN?! Holding out, steady nerve and all that. It’s really not that bad, any game which opens with a goal within a few minutes is likely to be a lively game with a nice attacking form of play, which suits me just fine. Either they go 2 goals ahead and I am back into the green, or the home team come back fighting and level up, then go ahead, fingers crossed one of those happens
Well I ruled out 3 possibles today, Heerenveen (cup game i realised after researching!), Villareal, and Atl Bilbao. But I wasn’t sure if I made a mistake discounting Villareal game so I had another look at what put me off….. It’s pretty damn clear that Villareal are on a great run of form, and scoring a LOT of goals lately. But the away team is no slouch either, and they hold a tight defense most of the time. In Spain, home teams get MASSIVE support from their fans (much more than here in the UK and most other countries) so I do fancy Villareal to score some goals here, and …
Well its a big coupon today so i spent a fair while on the stats and stuff. Here is a bit of a commentary: Valencia v Almeria – It looked promising just based on goal stats, but combining the price as a factor (which it is, at 5.3!) its a no trade for me. Also they score later on, second half usually, so just too much risk for too little reward Genk v KV – Home team is def a great favourite here. But again, always looking for reasons NOT to trade a game, i see the last 3 away games for KV were 1-0 winners, meaning they can score, …
I am not going to be tempted by Man U v Norwich at 5.3 even though I fancy Persie and Rooney to make it 2-0 by 30 minutes! Man U blow hot and cold and could well leave it 0-0 until 70 minutes, they are famous for it in my trading diary anyway!
Well I haven’t got matched, and since this is Lega Pro (small time league) I am not messing about trying to get matched up at odds of 5.3 or 5.4, it’s just not a strong enough trade for that, so taking the rare decision to cancel the trade.
That’s the trouble with giving away free information about my trades! People jump in and the market price for laying the draw jumps up within half an hour! So none of my £200 lay bet has been matched. I ain’t getting in above 5, so will wait and hope to get matched nearer kick off. Fingers crossed!
Pontedera v Nocarina – Stats are good, i am a bit nervous of these low down leagues but stats are stats so fingers crossed for a good early goal or two from the home team. Here are the stats : http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2013/10/28/italy/serie-c1/us-pontedera-1912/ag-nocerina-1910/1567193/head2head/
All UEFA league games which I steer clear of.
Worst trading day for a long while yesterday. 2 solid picks (according to stats and form) and 2 straight clear losing trades. It’s days like those which remind me why i trade using various different methods, not just laying the draw as many traders do. Laying the draw is great over the long term, but it definitely will have short term harsh runs and its nice to have a few other methods to draw on in those time, just to shore up some of the red! Having said that, I had no time for any other trades yesterday of any kind, so that’s £300 off my bank thanks to yesterday’s …
Today I am trading two games to lay the draw. Peterborough v Sheffield Utd – the stats look plenty good enough here and very cheap to lay draw at 4 considering how many goals they score on average at home. MK Dons v Carlisle – Again very good stats, not quite as good as Pborough game but good enough to trade. £200 laid on both
Well a bit of a f**k over day again, but scraped through without losing anything thanks to Gijon. Tranmere scored so I took a £60 loss there to get the hell out of yet another game which went nothing like the stats suggested it should. took £60 green on Gijon, and leaving it alone for today, no more trades anyway.
Nothing of interest on today’s football coupon
Sorry for lack of updates today and yesterday. I am working flat out helping a friend tidy his garden up to sell the house, will be back to trading in next day or two
Well £216 loss taken on Fenerbahce. I think I will go back to sticking with my guts about Turkish and Greek games! It’s funny, for what must be 4 or 5 years now, I have nearly never won a trade on these games, yet the stats show goals in abundance. It is quite clear, they score loads unless I trade em! Weird, but that’s that. A losing trade, 5hit happens. 🙂
Fenerbahce v Trabzonspor – LTD @ 4.1 – I am often a bit wary of Turkish and Greek games, they just often don’t play out as well as other leagues, but looking at the form I think the odds are too good to not trade so I am trading it
As usual, overpriced small european games! Of course the goal came (as it damn well should at those prices, and with those stats!) but nowhere near as comfortably as it should. I have traded out with £113 greened, not hanging around on this one. Word of warning though, in my experience these small countries often have a couple of famous teams but the rest are unknowns (PSV, Ajax, Panathinikos in Greece, etc) and it can cause very heavy betting which makes the odds sometimes a bit skewed. This was one example. Next time I would probably wait until the price was a bit better, but glad to bank some green …