Well that went well. £45 on QPR and waited for 3-1 on Brentford to get a nice bit of green – another £150 :).
QPR v Bolton – Not a cracker of a game, but at odds under 4 I am definitely laying the draw. The away team can score a lot, but the home team concede around 0.3 goals per game at home which is crazy low! I expect it could be an interesting game, but the home team should do the business with relative ease. Brentford v Bristol – well this is an odd one. On the stats it looks SUPERB. The odds don’t seem to reflect the strength of this pick in my view. there could be a sneaky reason for that, like who is or isn’t playing, but I have …
Ajax and Milan interested me at first, then I realised they are both cup games. no trades
Well 2 out of 2 ain’t bad. Another winner on Madrid and usually I would stay in for more green when they go 2-0 up, but 5.4 is a high price to get in at and I could do without the nerve jangling if it goes to 1-1. So I am happy with £51 green on this game for a few minutes work work 🙂 £162 overall for the day …
Well the Turkish game went as planned. I took my alternative exit strategy by laying the favourite. It’s only 1-0 and you never know, I rather like a picture like this when a home team hasn’t dominated and could easily end up losing, unlikely, but worth only losing a tenner of my overall green if they don’t (as compared with normal lay the draw exit of backing draw) …
Atl Madrid v Sevilla – A bit nervous here because Seville have great form away from home, but Madrid’s home stats are pretty amazing, scoring on average 3.3 goals per game and only conceding half a goal a game! Its pricey too at 5.3 but I have ordered my trade and will be going with this one for better or worse! http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2014/01/19/turkey/1-lig/balikesirspor/fethiyespor/1549465/head2head/ – turkish game, its 0-0 at 40 minutes so I am getting in there at 2.9 – looks a cheap chance of some green, but never know with turkish games! Thats it for today
Inter v Chievo had me quite tempted, but away team just don’t concede enough goals and home form isn’t as good as the price suggests, so another day off.
The only game I considered trading is Lille v Reimes. Lille are a strong side and very strong at home. But the away team is a very defensive side and are good at preventing goals. Their low conceding stats are enough for me to scratch my head then decide its a no trade. probably will be 10-0, but this is about stats only, and the stats say caution, so I am keeping my powder dry today. 🙂
Lyon v Sochaux. It was a tempter but they mainly score around HT, just after usually. So I have LTD at 3.3 and getting out at 60 minutes if 0-0.
Well I had a huge shortlist, which I rejected the majority of. I was left with 2 tempters, Brentford at home and MK Dons at home. I have decided neither are strong enough on stats so I am not trading any today. Funny coupon, loads of possibles, a day where you could make a fortune if they all came in or lose your shirt if they don’t. Stats win prizes, and nothing is what I would call a pearler for lay the draw trading at its best, so I am going to wash the car instead!!!!
All cup games which I steer clear of, and in this extremely wet weather with boggy ground, have to be a bit more careful as football games are often slower affairs.