Exit

I am busy so not hanging in for 2-0 from Chelsea, i normally would, especially in this game. But i have to go out so I have secured 2.5% of bank as profit and that will do for a 1 trade day.

Betfair trading 26th December

Well I had a few on shortlist today but all of them fell over when looking into detailed stats and form. All that remains is one trade: Chelsea v Westham – This is expensive, but the form is incredible. Chelsea have kept SIX clean sheets at home, on average score 2.5 goals per game and concede only 0.35 per game!! They are unbeaten at home, on a huge run of form, and they score the first goal (average) at around 20 minutes. So, usually I would wait for odds to come in to 5 or lower before entering, but instead I am going to trade this one from about 5 …

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update

Well the goal came nice and early in Duisburg and I should have taken the green really but I waited hoping for 2-0 to double up the green and it went to 1-1 instead so became a losing trade. Thankfully Man City did the business as expected and I let that run to 2-0 as well (consistency is key) so laid City at 1.02 to make my trade exit: …

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oh go on then, just a little one….

well i am not being greedy, but this live stream of wolfsburg shows they are trying everything in their power to score a goal. i have £25 of green on that game guaranteed, so a LTD now just running down until the odds hit 2 will cost me my green plus a tenner red. Thats £30 liability. But if either team score, I would expect (at this late stage) at least twice that in green. So is it twice as likely there will be no more goals than one more goal? I don’t think so. Hence the trade 🙂 fingers crossed.

1 Final update

Well Feyenoord got the goal with 2 mins left of injury time as i type this, i had just bet £2 at 350-1 as i could see it coming! I greened up and then laid the draw at 2-2 to have a nice result whatever happens now…. It ended just as i took the pic! 2-2. That just leaves Wolfsburg which I have just seen is now level at 1-1, so I have just greened that one up (remember i left a big green on Paderborn by exiting with a lay of the home team instead of backing the draw, this is why i do it!) so here is my …

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update

Well its all happening here, glad i have 3 screen because keeping track of 3 games all at once with german and english commentary, its not exactly peaceful! Wolfsburg had a penalty. missed. Just scored a goal, disallowed. I am still in as i know another goal is coming, but may exit shortly before it gets risky. Salzburg was a £45 loss a while back after I exited the LTD. Thats turned around a fair bit now, as I laid under 2.5 goals in the expectation of late goals and as i hoped, the AWAY team scored the first one, which kicked the game into life. one goal came, i …

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Results

Well Salzburg didn’t score, I suspect their manager told them to hold out for the point for a draw after getting a player sent off. Load of crap if thats the case. The under 2.5 market is on 1.05 so I have laid it for a very low liability, in case their stats come good in the closing 15 minutes and the get scoring, plenty of upside to a bet like that. Wolfsburg did the business, I am currently watching it and waiting for a second goal. I will give it 5-10 more minutes then just take my green if no more goals. Feyenoord are back on the pitch and …

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out of Feyenoord

Well the other highly possible outcome i forgot to mention in this value bet, is that AZ have a great run of away form and score 2 goals a game, so it was perfectly reasonable to foresee them scoring first as well. they did. so i just got out and took a nice £20 green. They have just scored again, I am watching it live. Feyenoord are themost attacking team but AZ keep scoring against the run of play. I will; [probably now lay AZ or back feyenoord. A very high value bet …

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Backing draw

Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar – Anything can happen, but this is a value bet for me. Its way overpriced. This is two teams which sit alongside each other in the league, usually suggesting a cagey affair. They are both good and capable of scoring but both have good form at home and away respectively, so even if an early goal goes in, I would expect another to come back from the other team to level the game again, or it will go along at 0-0 for a good while. I am therefore backing the draw at 5.2 intending to get some ticks and lay it off around 4-4.5 later.   …

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short notice LTD

I am going to trade Red Bull Salzburg which has just kicked off, if and when the odds come down below 5. Their last two home meetings against this team saw them score 6 goals, and they average 3.89 goals per game at home. Thats nice!

Soccer…..

Well Lyon v Caen is a big tempter, but not big enough to tempt me. See the stats on their respective home and away form of late, to see how big a tempter it is!….. However it is not a trade for me, away team does defend well, and its 5 years since Lyon beat them, which can create a mental block for some teams. I am sure it would be a great trade, but I have to be as cautious as possible with LTD these days, so I am deciding against it. Eindhoven is another one I VERY nearly decided to trade, as its cheapish at 4.3. But the …

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Friday

Well I dabbled with some old school scalping and bookmaking on horse markets today, only half an hour or so while checking emails (never do two things at once when trading!). I also got another spam text tip. This one I traded because it was from the same scum bag who texted me yesterday and his yesterday horse won so he must have been shocked with that bit of luck! I tried a bit of in running trading too and spotted a horse coming from the back of the field, quickly backed it at 7-1 and once it got to the middle of the field i laid it off for …

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Make the spammer swines pay!

I am not sure if I have mentioned it before, but I get a lot of texts to my mobile from horse tipping spammers. That’s all they are, they are not tipsters, just spammers who I would really love to get in a dark room somewhere. Utter scum the lot of em, sending texts to people in the hundreds of thousands, disturbing them in their homes, to tell them about some old nag which has no better chance of winning than any other. I suspect the deal is, they just pick a horse and if it wins they text you again, and eventually if they are lucky enough they give …

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Timing is everything!

I wasn’t trading tonight but just popped to check emails and noticed PSG were 1-0 up against Barcelona, IN Barcelona! That spelled a trade for me. No sooner could I get logged in and my trade entered, than it suspended and it was 1-1, just second before I would have pressed submit. Sometimes trading can really try your patience, almost like someone is watching over your shoulder having a good old chuckle at your expense!! You can probably guess I am not religious. 😀 I pinched a tick out of the over 2.5 goals market, always grab a tick or two when two quick goals are scored in succession, especially …

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HT LTD

Well Brondby interests me now, not massively but enough for a small LTD. Its 0-0 at HT as I pretty much expected from the stats. The first half events dont suggest it was too busy, which is a slight concern, but looking at their stats its the second half when they seem to come alive, so lets hope thats  the case! …

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