Just seen another

I have just seen PSG’s game, the stats are not amazing, but the price is ridiculously high at nearly 7 on the draw, with PSG backed down to 1.28. Yes I expect them to win, and they could score in the first minute, of course they could, but purely on a stats basis, I think it is a value bet to lay PSG and exit after 10-15 minutes by backing for some green, IF they don’t score of course. The stats are good, but not even worth a price of 5 on the draw if you ask me, so nearly 7 is crazy and needs taking advantage of, on a …

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one possible trade today

Braga @ 8.30 pm – I have very very slight reservations here. The stats look good enough that’s for sure. I have just had a bad experience with Portugal games in the past. I have had winners, but quite a few very odd losers where goals didnt come despite strong stats. This concerns me a bit, but if I put that to one side (maybe by watching some of the game) I will probably trade it, especially as it looks to be a fairly cheap lay the draw trade.

textbook trade

Lyon v Toulouse – 4 pm Top plays bottom, strong home form, weak away form, high scoring/low conceding form for home team, low scoring/high conceding form for away team. It all looks just perfect, hopefully it pans out that way! athletic club v elche – looks good but not quite good enough so giving that a miss and doubling up my trade on Lyon above. thats all for today   …

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Out tonight so no trades, but…….

I received an email today from a reader asking: “Looking at the Chelsea v Newcastle game for my first bet. The draws currently sitting a little high at 7.6, do you think it’s worth backing inplay if the odds come down to around 5’s? How long into the game would this usually take?   Thanks,   J”   I replied, and felt it may be of use to more than a few of you, so here is my reply: “I wouldn’t touch anything priced that high, just too much potential loss. Whilst I am sure Chelsea will annihilate Newcastle, your liability is just too high on odds like that which …

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Update

Well goal just before HT so I exited LTD for a tiny profit and jumped on the back draw (another old method i used to use regularly). I will exit after the next goal to either team, or at 55-60 minutes if neither. Not many ways to lose on a back draw trade