lost a fiver, happy to get out for that. another day another dollar, red or green 😀
Well loads of reasons to avoid trades today, some TERRIBLE games but priced like good ones, means lots of opportunities to back the draw or do other things to take advantage of silly prices. Lay the draw betfair trades: Shrewsbury v Northampton – LTD @ 3.95 – cheap at that price oh, er, that’s it!! i did say a day for cherry picking
I have around 15-20 football matches on my shortlist today, going to have to be very selective as I do the stats. update to follow – discipline needed today – cherry picking
2 nice winners today, 4.5% of bank. would be nice to do that every day of the week!
Mattesberg v Hartberg – a rare austrian game for me marseille v caen – quite pricey but they are on form and should take care of business 🙂
Club Brugge @ 1700hrs – very strong stats here. I tend to avoid Belgian games, they can be inconsistent more often than bigger leagues, but can’t ignore this one. I am not paying 4.7 though, I have laid the draw at 4.5 and will wait to be filled in play if needed, if i miss out then so be it, these games drop quickly in play in my experience. Could probably get away with waiting for 4 for a nice clean trade (equal risk to stake if exiting @ 2) but stats suggest goals so I will stick at 4.5 and take my chances there. Las Palmas – Almost a …
Vitesse – two teams next to each other in league (often suggests a tight game) and the stats are far more boring than that crazy odds of 4.9 would suggest. If i am at the computer I wil be backing the draw for 20-30 minutes there to hopefully bank some betfair greenbacks 🙂
Seville v Cordoba – stats are lovely, home team unbeaten at home, hardly concede any goals and usually score 2-4. If I had to pick a scoreline I would say 3-0, so I am LTD at 5.3
ha ha, ignore my last post! I saw the white team score and thought Dortmund play in white, it was the other team who scored and its now Dortmund pressing for an equaliser, DOH!! Well that goes to show stats are there for a reason, I pity anyone who took a LTD here and I have a feeling a lot of people did. It will be nervous times now, do you take a big loss and get out, or risk another goal from the dog and a huge loss? Nasty choice, my choice would be to wait it out though, as I am sure Dortmund will get one or two …
Dortmund stats are dismal for a LTD priced up over 6. I turned a live stream of the match on, just after kick off, and saw a bit of a mess up leaving the away team goalie way off his line, defender cleared and it came to a Dortmund player who volleyed it speculatively towards the goal, and in it went. haha. you win some you lose some. 5hit – while typing, the away team SO nearly scored, shot off the bar. not taking a loss here, 1-1 would be lovely at 30 minutes in for some green. as usual, luck is 5hitty but the stats made this a value …
Oss v Achilles – 7pm – This looks a good LTD at 4.6. Dortmund v Mainz – I can not for the life of me understand why these odds are so high. the stats are not strong at all, the goals look few and far between from both teams. yet it is up around 6 to lay the draw?! See below for stats. I am backing it to lay it off in play for some green, that’s the plan anyway! …
Another day of few games and the only possibles are cup games, keeping powder dry.
Too many cup games for my liking
2-0 – nice full LTD win – 3% of bank on one trade, wish i could do that every day, I used to!