Decent enough

Well many of the small speculative value bets didn’t pay off, although that’s the nature of those things anyway, one big hit and lots of small losses, I can take those all day as it’s great when they pay off, especially when laying at 1.04 or 1.01 as I did tonight on Torino! Napoli came good. I backed them again at 17-1 before they scored. I have exited at 2-2 even though I fully expect them to score more. I am just securing a green day as I have to go out, I wish I could have waited in as I could have had a much nicer green if they …

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trading

backing the draw at sampdoria for first 15 minutes, stats based. Laying draw at Roma at 30 minutes if 0-0. Laying under 2.5 goals (below 1.29) at HT if 0-0 in Rosenborg game …

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Another strange one!

Ternana v Varese This is a back the draw or back unders all day long. Stats based of course, so it can always result in an early shock loss, that goes without saying, but those goal stats are SO dismal, i may well back the draw down to 4 or maybe even 3.5 if i can watch the game and its as dire as the stats suggest! According to those stats, the game will be lucky to see a goal! Yet the odds suggest a goal fest. Only one can be true, and I know which one the stats say is more likely! Another approach to games like this, for …

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No LTD today, a strange one though….

This is a strange one indeed – Orleans v Sochaux The price looks like the home team are strong favourites, yet the stats say anything but that. I am tempted to back the draw or lay Orleans here. Need to think more about it yet and also not sure if I will be home for it, but if I am, I think there is a multitude of value bets on offer here, the stats and odds just don’t tally. …

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Possible in play LTD

Arsenal v Sunderland 1945 tonight: Its priced too high at the moment, but if my suspicions are right that may not matter too much. If arsenal score early then it would be a no trade obviously, but I have a feeling Sunderland may put their effort into protecting goal rather than trying to score against such a strong and in-form team as the Arsenal. Time will tell, and I am not betting on this being the case, but if it is, I would hope to see 0-0 at 20-30 minutes, maybe even at HT who knows. If so, I will be laying the draw. The stats are pretty damn awesome, …

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2-0 west brom, who’d have thunk it? :D

Glad I talked myself out of a lay. more tempting now, but without a live view of the game, just not wise i dont think, i dont even know who was sent off! If i could see the game i might lay brom, as its a mighty low risk to a might high reward here, but again, with chelsea not being in need of anything from the game it still makes me wonder if its worthwhile. who knows, maybe someone got bribed to give Brom the points, stranger things have happened 😀 …

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How is that price fair?!

It’s 2-2. Yet the draw price is more than I ideally look for BEFORE Kick Off?!! 1.4 for a team which couldn’t get ahead by half time?! Crazy. I wanted to LTD there but after seeing that price, no chance! It will almost certainly come good, but the risk reward is blown away by that price, as IF there are no more goals it will drop too fast to give a decent run at the trade. Also I was tempted to lay West Brom who are 1-0 against Chelsea. Trying to talk myself out of it, after all Brom can play well at home when they want to, and Chelsea …

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Damn the Celtic!

Out of that one. I don’t do hedge bets very often, I find it’s just a faster way to reduce greens when they win. However in this case with Celtic being SO strong (ha ha, yeah I am laughing too) the odds on correct score 0-0 (our biggest enemy when laying the draw) were 17 before the kick off. That’s a nice hedge for a fiver, so may look at that next time, but its rarely that good on 0-0 CS before KO. I have laid Under 2.5 goals at 1.05 and 1.03, call it an after the event hedge. 😀

One trade today

St Johnstone v Celtic. I don’t often do lay the draw on away games, but this is too strong to ignore. If they were at home the draw price would be 8-10, but in Scotland the home/away effect is much reduced, and Celtic’s form shows this. Good enough for me 🙂

Laying the draw now

Madrid are clearly desperate for another goal now, they didnt seem to give a 5hit before!! But Juve may get one on break if Madrid dont get in first. Either way, at 2.5 I think its a very good value bet …

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Sorry!

Was just typing a message to let y’all know I have laid Madrid at 1.26, despite it not being an obvious bet, Juventus just seemed SO much more keen on scoring and were coming far too close for my liking at those odds to lay Madrid. Before I hit publish on here they got the goal. Will try harder next time to let you know before, not after!! It is the first time though so hopefully I will be forgiven 😀

Lovely

Two nice LTD trades in the same game. Not sure if I will take a third, as Munich are pushing harder than Barca at the moment, but I am sorely tempted to lay Munich at 1.2, very low liability. The only problem is Barca dont seem too bothered about scoring, they are ahead on aggregate so it’s not a must win game for them, I do still expect Messi to slip through somehow though! Decisions decisions!

Trade

I had entered my order for a Lay on Bayern Munich at 1.53, when Barcelona scored. They just never give me time to get in! It’s now 1-1 and I am laying the draw, many more goals in this game I think. I will take green whoever scores, and then LTD again if it levels up again.

Update

Nice early goal  from AZ. I didn’t trade out, I stayed in and it went a bit pear shaped from there. I took a small loss at 1-2 (exited at 3.5), I then put a few quid back bet on AZ around 70 minutes at odds of 12. Just enough to give me a small green on AZ if they came back as expected. I have just greened up 1% of bank at 3-2 88 mins. Always green up, it could easily become a draw and green on offer must be green banked! shame it wasn’t a nice 3% of bank but cant sniff at some green especially from what …

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One trade today

It’s a strange old day. Some absolutely ridiculously overpriced draws today. Villareal for example, I would usually lay Villareal at those silly odds, for first 15 minutes when  they rarely score. There are various other examples of silly prices today. Two possibles are AZ and Ajax. I decided against Ajax, again because I think the odds are too high, but AZ looks worth a shot so I will be laying the draw there. Today may be a day of in play opportunities, often when you get days with silly prices, you can make some lovely green from just taking advantage of in play value bets. For example if Villareal came …

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