Derby County home form looks good for a LTD around half time. I am ordering 3.05 Nothing else of interest today., lots of close calls like Juventus and Monaco but many of these borderline games are close affairs where both teams will likely play it safe, best avoided I think. Some horses went well. more on that another time   …

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Just goes to show, stats are the only thing you can use reliably over the long term. But BOY can they be trumped by real life events sometimes, usually when I have money at stake! So home team scored ONE goal in last FOUR league games, and against the mighty Dortmund, they have just managed TWO goals?! Pretty amazing stats! I am sticking with Dortmund, if I wasn’t in already, I would be laying home team at 1.5 now! …

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Laying the draw at Hartlepool

It’s not a nailed on trade, but at 2.82 to LTD , I think its a great RvR trade (risk v reward). I will be exiting around 1.87 if its still 1-1. Lots of green to be had IF a goal comes, especially from away side. Stats suggest away team are likely enough to score 45-60 mins to make this a worthwhile risk.

No trades today, not for want of trying!

I looked in depth at today’s long list, but nothing is a safe enough bet in my book. Cruzeira (Brazil) looked moderately tempting, home teams have a huge advantage over there, but I would want to see odds nearer 3.2-3.4 to get involved there. If I am about I may watch the game and get in if its a slow start. Sorry, pretty dead of late, but will all come at once soon, always the way!

Update – ooops!

Well that was a tidy trade. What is really annoying is I had exactly the same plan for Helmond Sport, which I totally forgot to mention and totally forgot to trade as well! I have just seen the post it note on my desk sticking out from under my keyboard! Can’t believe I forgot to trade it. That one is 2-0 at HT as well as that could have been a nice double today! Oh well, thats what happens when I have a mobile phone with spam sales calls coming in all day driving me so mad I nearly smashed the effing thing today! Trading when stressed only leads to …

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One trade today

Sparta Rotterdam @ 7pm It’s pricey, but one of those rare expensive ones which I think are still worth doing. If/when they go ahead I will be holding for 2+ goals before exiting unless the game goes flat after the first goal, which is unlikely. …

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Thanks for the well-wishes….

I decided to post here as its easier and I am not at desk for long. I have had a huge number of emails wishing me well. Rather than reply to all of them, I just wanted to say thanks very much to all of you 🙂 I really am on the mend too 🙂